Wanted to append this conclusion, but editing window closed:

Folding feels a bit nitty and I would probably tank for forever, but I have no idea whatsoever how to make a profit here. I'd be genuinely interested to hear how a truly good player (like an MSNL crusher) approaches this spot.

And I agree with bobman that stack depth is a disadvantage for us deep, unless we can figure out how to convert the "playability" of our hand into profitable plays.

Here ya go.

To be fair you'll need to have a decent skill edge over your opponent to show a better result than the -$20 you'd be settling for by folding but with the information given it sounds like that skill edge would be there.

I think that calling is an option to be considered, but I think that is usually a suboptimal option against a random MAWG in this situation unless Villain is a fish (seems to be a rec, but OP didn't describe him as a drooler).

If Villain 3bettor is a fish who is going to pay off 2 streets of value to our TP with his KK/QQ when we outflop him on an Axxxx board, then go ahead and call AJs.

Isn't flatting AJs better in some ways than 4-betting?

If BTN was getting out of line, why would 4-betting be better than flatting?

If BTN is getting out of line, shouldn't we polarize our 4-bet range (turn some airier hands like 87s/A2s into bluffs) and call with a merged range of moderate strength hands - hands exactly like AJs - that play decently against vs. a wide 3-bet?

4-betting AJs seems like we're turning it into a ~pure bluff with an A blocker. Quite often, V will 5-bet or fold. When he does fold, he mostly folds worse hands than AJs, some of which are quite a bit worse and even dominated. And those times he does call, we're oop with AJs in a 3 SPR pot with 200BB left, and quite frequently his calling range is going to be extremely bad for AJs.

Seems like your definition of BTN MAWG getting out of line versus my definition of BTN MAWG getting out of line are different.

You think that BTN might be getting frisky with hands that AJs may be beating or even dominating. I think BTN might be getting frisky with something like TT that would puke if he gets 4bet with 250bb effective.

FWIW, your analysis would be correct if BTN were young Asian backpack LAG at 5/10 instead of MAWG rec player at 2/5.

I really doubt that AJs is dominating any hands in MAWG's 3bet range.

I also think that playing moderate strength hands postflop OOP versus a MAWG's 3bet range is probably a leak if he isn't a fish.

MSNL crusher just Maybe would give you very simple advice:
Avoid difficult spots (AJhh qualifies here -- likely range disadvantage vs this V, not closing action PF, RIO problems, IO problems, suitedness isn't enough to overcome weaknesses of AJ position)

Exploit by folding

I agree with the fold preflop. Does changing hero's hand to AQ make it a call?

Ah totally agree. Thanks. For some reason, I wasn't thinking about hero's read on the villain dynamics. I just played a hand against a strong LAG where I raise/flatted a 3-bet w/ATs oop in a very similar spot (positions, depth) for the reasons I cited.

This is really standard spot to flat and see a flop. We're deep enough that the IO definitely justify it.

Not like folding is a big mistake or anything.

Thiis has turned out to be a really good thread. Just for grins & tickles, I wanted to ask how you would stereotype a 60 year old white guy, whom you don't know, that just sat down at your table with a backpack, greeted everyone, pulled his earplugs out of his backpack to deafen the raucous activity, but didn't hook it up to his phone & asked if everyone was having fun today? Then proceeded to pull out a ziplock back from his backpack, that had a 100% cotton cloth in it, saturated with isopropyl alcohol & proceeded to clean his glasses? Hee Haw!?

As far as flopping gin otf in this case; we're an ~89:1 dog to flop a str8 or flush. IMO, there has to be a solid way to play to at least the turn to call pre.

And yes, the optimal standard / most common play is folding.

Would need a read / reason to do otherwise.

Based on the OP, it's a pretty clear fold.

This is good stuff. Thanks guys!

I'd peel if I thought there was >0% chance the meta stuff was in play. You probably aren't making/losing much either way though if you play reasonably post.

and obv against any sort of reasonable 3b range id never fold pre in a million years

Really, the only way I can think of folding here preflop is if we're pretty sure that this guy is going to blast the flop with his cbet sizing.

Pot will be $160, and I expect a cbet in the neighborhood of $70-100 with about $1100 behind.

If he's shown that he's likely to come out and bet $135+ on the flop, then this is a pretty easy fold pre.

You have an MSNL crusher confused with an LLSNL grinder. I'm well acquainted with this simple piece of advice from an LLSNL grinder, which is why I thought it'd be interesting to hear from someone who leverages every edge they can get.


The important part of the EBF philosophy is the E part. In order to exploit someone, there needs to be a known tendency that you're exploiting. This guy is in his late-40s, but other than that nothing about him says that he's incapable of running plays. He has a lot of chips, he's not snap folding to us and seems to be paying attention to stuff, and there's a recent dynamic that sets this up for the perfect time to do something.

I'm not saying he's doing something, and I'm not even recommending that folding is bad, but this isn't really a straightforward EBF spot.

Just out of curiosity, what do you plan on doing on different flops? Do you expect him to cbet a low frequency with his weak hands, and so we can take the pot down easily whenever he has a marginal hand that misses?

If not, what are you doing facing a cbet on:

1) How many streets are you calling down on a J-high flop?

2) How many streets are you calling down on an A-high flop?

3) Are you x/c'ing or x/r'ing when we hit a FD? If x/r, what is your plan on blank turns?

4) Are there any other flops you continue on? If so, which ones, and what is your plan to take down the pot?

Obviously these are all very general questions, but any light you could shine on your plan would be of interest to me.

I don't necessarily disagree with your assessment, btw, so this isn't meant to be a pointed interrogation or anything.

yeah, i mean one expectation that i would have is that he doesn't fire more than one barrel ~ever without the goods, which allows us to play flops much more profitably. as for whether he would have a low cbet flop %, i would hope that i have have a little more info based on past hands he raised, but generally would expect it to be either 100% (if he auto cbet before) or {overpairs, some AK}. as long as he isnt barreling off with more air i think i can play against this fairly well.

usually 1

also usually 1 but i hate folding

this is really general and depends a lot on above. im not gonna try to get him to fold overpairs though. i might lead on some flops like 79Tr where i have a gutter and bdfd and dont want to x/c also.

i guess see above, probably too general to answer though.

i think the main things are that 1)he will play passively often, allowing us to realize our equity cheaply and win at sd vs his air combined with 2)the times we make a hand that beats his pairs allow us to profitably peel for the price we are getting.

i would consider 4betting much more appealing if i thought he was going to be bluffing more often postflop (but not maniacally) such that shutting out the equity of his bluffs outweighed the other disastrous stuff that happens when we 4b into the top of his range

All this talk about his likely cbet sizing Is totally irrelevant. I don't really care whether he likes to cbet 50% pot or likes to over bet bomb 4xpot. His likely cbet sizing has very little bearing on the profitability of the pre flop call unless he often makes ******ed sizing mistakes (which would make him a fish, and then I would gamble to see a flop against him accordingly)

Hmm...

So you're telling me his Cbet sizing ____is____ important?

~~~~~~

So if you expect him to make weird sized bets OTF, this makes you want to call and take a chance on him?

You do realize that it is extremely unlikely that we will get a flop that will make us want to stack off without further improvement, right?

You do realize that we're going to have to 1) get a favorable flop and 2) be able to call a flop bet profitably (i.e. call a small/medium sized bet) in order to draw and realize our equity, right?

Its basically exactly the opposite of what you say is the right move. If we have good reason to believe he's going to make a weird sized bet OTF, then we can be reasonably sure that we will not have the right price to call to draw, and therefor its better if we just fold.

But if we have good reason to believe he'll make small/medium sized cbets, we can be reasonably sure that we'll have a good price to draw or take another line -- maybe we want to x/r the flop with a monster draw and also profit from some FE.

If he bombs the flop, we probably can surmise that we'll have less FE then usual.

If you call, against this (and many) villains, you're playing with

a) Card disadvantage
b) Position disadvantage

Those are the two of the most important things in poker. You can identify permutations of ways we will win chips and pots post-flop. But that doesn't make the call +EV. You will not be able to overcome those disadvantages in the long-term in this spot.

One of the big leaks of rec players is that they bet too big with TPTK/overpairs in 3bet pots. I don't really see why I should be afraid of that when it is usually a mistake for them to pot the flop.

This is one of the main reasons why I think calling is better than folding. His cbet sizing will often give away his hand strength in a lot of spots. On wet boards in particular.

Agree on the EBF of course, but that was actually my point in defaulting to the LLNLS "101 advice". Any assumptions about Vs range and postflop play are invalid without more concrete information, so defaulting to a fold where skill edge postflop is at the very least watered down given all the factors is leveraging an edge in the first place.

Stacks aren't all that deep for 3! MP either which creates more problems for this particular hand - and that's really the crux.
We want to open-c a range that has more of a polarized flop equity distribution with the implied odds in tow. AJhh doesn't fit well given its middling strength on a lot of flops that amplify it's RIO properties and IO deficiencies on others.