Hey all, longtime lurker but first post. Have been playing live 1/3 all year and am taking the occasional shot at 2/5 when the game is good. Here's a hand I wasn't sure what to do in.

We are around 1200 effective. I open 98cc from LJ to 15. HJ calls. CO (V) raises to 60. Saw V fold KK pre facing 3 all ins (correctly) so V seems like a tight/smart player. He covers me. Button cold calls. I call. HJ calls.

Flop is Tc6c5h. Checks to V who bombs it for 200. Folds to me.

I know this is a dream flop for my hand but I'm wondering if jamming over 200bbs here is ever correct. Only raising to around 500-600 seems terrible. I figure that I would jam sets here and this is by far my best semi-bluff to balance that out with. Maybe it's correct to only flat with your entire continuing range?

Is there ever a spot where jamming 200bbs is correct?

After seeing him fold KK pre, yeah I jam here. Your equity is good if he calls and winning this pot with 9 high is dead sexy.

Hard to pull the trigger when your shot taking tho....

+1 and pray he doesn't have AKc

Pre is a loose open from LJ. If V's in position really suck then it's a marginal open but facing competent players left to act this is very loose. Side note V is dumb for showing he can fold KK pre. AP I call the 3b this deep.

Flop pot has 240, he bets 200. You have 46% against JJ+. If there's any chance he can fold I'd just shove it in. Implied odds probably are not there if a club or 7 hits the turn. Even if he never folds it's pretty much an even money spot.

So I don't like calling pre. You're entering yourself in a bloated pot, OOP to 3 players, with a hand that has bad reverse implied odds.
AP, definitely raise here. You can credible rep 6 combos of sets and you need 6 combos of bluffs to balance that, and as you said, 98cc is definitely in your top 6 candidates for that.
The question is, do we make it 600 or jam, and jam is probably better. I don't really think raising to 600 would look weak, it's not like V would try to come over the top expecting a fold.

However, the question is do we jam with 66 here? Seems ambitious. But even is you only jam TT here, 98cc is a great candidate to balance out your narrow range.

You need 37% equity when called to be 0EV (940 / 2250 = 37%). You’ve got 48% versus an overpair without a club, 43% versus an overpair with a club, and 35% versus TT.

So even up against the nuts you can shove get snapped off and just barely be -EV. The actual “worst case” scenario is when villain has AK and you only have 31%.

I’d shove and feel pretty good about it. Assuming you haven’t been a nit then you’ve got all these sets in your range. Anytime he folds an overpair is a big win for you.

Ya, rough spot.

He has OP almost always. Jamming is 100% a +EV move. Only route I can think of that doesn't suck on brick turns.

We can assume he is jamming turn or betting huge again. It is what scared tight players do.

We have 43% equity vs AA. It goes down to 25% on turn.

Not a fan of flat and lead all turns. Definitely not a fan of flat and fold turn..

Raising to $450 and jam turn is interesting. Looks way more like a set that way.

But I guess I just take easy route and stick it all in. Definitely not the line I would chose vs this guy though with my sets. So if he makes the call with OP I wouldn't fault him.

At very least we get the enjoyment of him put in a ringer. He is not going to like to face a jam here.

So the consensus seems to be jam and I tend to agree.

For everyone saying fold to the 3b: I was fairly certain that HJ was gonna call if I did so I was calling 45 to win 240. You don't think 98cc has 18-19% 4 ways? I understand it has RIO but I thought it was a slam dunk call this deep.

Side note, I 3b IP a lot so I think I have a pretty loose image.

This is my thought process.

Jamming can't be bad though IF we are also jamming sets.

why is it when everyone does the math
you conveniently forget its not heads up

HJ still yet to act
what is his range ?
what did HJ call a 3-bet with???

It's hard to hit T65 flops my dude. If you give HJ only sets we still have 32%.

Your over bluffing with this thought process. You would get destroyed online with HUD's as guys could always just call.

Live also likely losing with 50% bluff ratio because guys call to much.

I was preaching balance in this forum when it wasn't cool. "Don't need balance at low limits". But 50/50 balance is not using the theory correctly.

In 200BB pots. I am likely 90% value (including value bluffs with huge draws 15+ outs) and less than 10% bluffs. And I am generally considered a maniac.

HJ was a loose/passive fish who donks with any made hand. Wasn't even considering their range here. She was one of the reasons I was in this game.

Because he’s folding >95% of his range and is irrelevant to how we play our range.

pre is fine and pretty standard, not folding. not like HJ is going to back 4bet jam often here.

otf i think I like raising flop and jamming all turns, i think we have some extra FE that way and look more "settish" than just ripping it all in (which looks pretty draw heavy). we can make it like 620 and shove under 1/2 psb as an exploit play. Esp since he folded KK and bc he's a thinking/tight reg, i think he's more likely to perceive your big raise as value and huge overbet jam as just trying to steal the pot.

Mikko - How is having 50% bluffs in a raise range overbluffing? In live it's overbluffing most likely since as you said, Vs call too much. But I don't think it's fair to say "you would get destroyed online to people with HUDs because they would just always call.

If Vs always called a raise range that was 50% bluffs then we are literally printing money. We would obviously win a large percentage of the time with our value hands, and since our bluffs are mostly strong draws, we're going to win when were bluffing at a good rate too.

i'm sure you know more than me about poker and are more experienced, but this is how I learned how to play and I really disagree that we'd get destroyed online with a raise range that was 50% bluffs. And to be clear, obviously I'm strictly talking about raise ranges. Obviously we should not be bluffing 50% of the time overall.

GTO suggests that against tough opponents the turn value betting/raising vs. bluffing range should be at a 1:1 ratio. Consequently, it's difficult to believe that this would make someone exploitable, regardless of whether the opponent has a HUD or not.

exactly this. great flop. now take advantage of it.

If you are bluffing 50% of time and value 50%.

Then villain can simply always call. As they are generally only require less than 33% equity.

Example

Pot is $100.

Hero bets $100, he is weighted 50/50 to bluffs and value.

Villain losses $100 50% of time.

Wins $300 50%.

For average of $200. Net profit of $100.

You play right into call stations strengths. Which is majority of 1/2 players.

Obviously smaller we bet. The better odds they get.

I have not seen this in any theory related articles I have read.

You would be punting a lot of $$$$. Trying it in live poker (no foldem holdem).

1) If the pot is $100 and Hero bets $100 and loses, Villain wins $200, not $300. In addition, Hero should usually be bluffing with hands which have some equity, so our EV after called turn bluffs should usually not be worse than about 10%.

2) Your example treats the turn as if it is the final betting street.

3) I don't agree that the majority of 1/2 players are calling stations on the turn and river. If your player pool is very sticky, then obviously you should be skewed more towards value betting rather than bluffing

Mikko, that is a gross oversimplification. Think of it in the context of this hand.

Let's say that V in this hand has QQ+ and TT 100% of the time. And let's say OP's raise range is TT, 66, AKcc, AQcc, AJcc, 98cc, 87cc

Our raise range has 65% equity against a range that is always strong value. And even just our bluffs have 44% equity.

What I think you are overlooking is the fact that were only ever bluff-raising with very strong draws so even when we are bluffing we're going to win a good percentage of the time.

This is some really really wrong math.

If pot is $100 and H bets $100, and V calls and wins, he wins $200 not $309x

Also in your scenarios this is where we are betting otr where we have 0% equity or 100%, here otf we still have a bunch of equity with draws or sets so it’s not really relevant to the situation at hand. If we bet $100, V is only going to win $20 on avg vs our range of sets and combo draws