Game is late last night around 3am. Hero is sitting on about $715 but has mostly been card dead all night. Only two hands of note were AQ I raised over 4 limpers, 3 callers, flop A22, V donks, I call, turn K, V shoves, I call and he has AK (over limped AK wtf?). Second hand I raised limpers with TT, flop Q75dd I bet, V shoves and tells me he's on a FD, I call and his J2d binks the turn. Frustrating night all around.

Table is exactly what I want to see, most of the players are calling big raises preflop playing fit-or-fold and then stationing up if they hit ... so if only I could get a hand to bet these muppets with. I've managed to hang around just making some raises OTB and c-betting flops.

OTTH

V1 - OTB ($115) has rebought short for $200 like 3 times. Plays pretty much ATC. No idea of relative hand strength. Pretty much clicking buttons.

V2 - SB ($715) is a fit-or-fold calling station. He has been subsidizing my night and the only reason I am only down $300 now instead of down $500-600. Limp/call/fold flop is his MO and has been my bread and butter. Calls with any PP, any broadway, any SC, pretty much anything that looks pretty to him.

V3 - BB ($600) is a table transfer. This is literally his first hand.

Hero - MP ($715)

UTG limps
EP limps
Hero overlimps 77 in MP

Under normal table conditions, this is a raise from me, but the nature of the table is that this will be going 4-6 way if I raise, with a chance of being blown off the hand by a 3!. So rather than building a pot OOP with players ahead and players behind, I just overlimp expecting it to limp around or call and set mine.

LJ limps
HJ limps
CO limps
BTN limps
SB completes
BB raises to $25

Dumbest raise of all time. Congratulations dude you just got a 9-way pot with $225 in the middle.

UTG calls $25
EP calls $25
Hero calls $25
LJ folds
HJ folds
CO calls $25
BTN shoves for $115

His range for shoving is probably any Ace, any PP, any two broadways, any SC, probably any suited Kx, Qx, etc. Super wide range

SB calls $115

See above. Calling with any PP, any broadway, any SC, any Ace.

BB folds
UTG folds
EP folds
Hero raises to $300

I think I am making a value raise here as a small favorite (when accounting for the dead money). I think he would have raised a PP bigger than 77's from the blinds or big Aces like AK, AQ, etc.

CO folds
SB calls $300

Pot: $815

Flop: A 8 3

SB checks
Hero shoves for $415

Thoughts? Can't wait to see the replies for this one

I think w your read on sb we have a lot more value in shoving rather than clicking back against him pre.

If he already called the first bet w like 98ss or something than I think we definitely need to apply pressure here and try to get him out to increase our equity in the main, if he called 115 w those hands he's not folding for another 185 getting like 3:1, but if we jam he might have to turn his brain on.

Other than that your logic and reads look pretty solid. Hope it ran out 7 7 turn river for ya, a little justice for a tough night

If their ranges are as wide as you say then this is +EV. Thin but +EV. Against the sort of range you give them your winning around 40% of the time and they split the other 60%. The problem is in the ranges you give them, if you tighten either villain's range up even a little or given them even a little sense about what hands to shove and which to fold then your EV drops into negatives.

Even given the sort of whale description you give both, I would want TT before doing this. Just those few steps up in rank give you hand that holds up far better.

With your description, stop-n-go probably is better than jamming preflop against SB so I can't complain about that.

This hand seems ridiculous but having just done an exercise on preflop stupidity the other day I feel like this is actually going to end up being something silly like $50 +EV.

Standard is obviously fold to the 3b, but you knew that.

@Quad, you are talking 5 card run out 40% vs. 60% right?

@Sungar, that's what I was thinking about at the time. If SB sees 5 cards vs. me, I am probably not much of a favorite, but if he sees only 3 cards (ie: calls pre, check/folds flop when he misses) than using some very basic math I should outflop him 2/3 of the time vs. his unpaired over cards.

I thought it would be a better outcome to have him call pre --> fold flop than me shove and have him call and see all 5 cards. 2/3 of the time he should miss the flop which insulates me against V1 the times I lose to him. (lose $115 to V1, win $185 from V2)

I recognized this was a seemingly thin spot, but end of the night after a ****ty session, **** it, +EV is +EV.

So we're shoving to protect and get folds from any PP that beats us?

Yep, that is against the full 5 cards. Against a loose but fit/fold player you can get him to fold on the flop but your also giving up money when he would have called a shove preflop and missed. If he will give up middle pairs when you shove flop it probably works in your favor because you can get him to fold some better hands but it isn't a trivial calculation.

I don't like your reasoning for the 300 back raise, nor the sizing against a station who is calling pre and is ck-calling it off post correctly on most flops just "instinctively" with the pot size you create. You're removing any FE you might have vs a stationy fit/fold type and negating any realistic positional edge you can use on good flops for your hand.

If back raising, id feel better about a pretty face up ISO shove forcing CO and/or V2 to call off their middling strength hands against your middling strength hands. Or just call the 115 and if CO comes along you just play poker in a protected pot that prob gets to SD enough times on the cheap.

Shove or fold pre-flop.

Sick

DK can you post some math if nothing else for a mid-lowstakes merge post?

I know this hand does essentially nothing for the grind, but it's definitely a cool exercise for the 1/2 beaters - 2/5 shot takers

Idk a 10k BR that couldn't use an admitted or otherwise $50 boost

I disagree that this is a "value" raise. If V calls with any suited over cards you're only a 67-33 favorite when dealt to the flop, and you're probably shoving everything. If V even partially connects with the board he'll probably call, given your description, and he's doing quite well against your actual holding even with air. Take a gutshot with a backdoor flush draw and 2 overs. He's got 45% equity. When he misses completely he makes a correct fold. On the other hand, when you get it in against his strong holdings, you're only 10%. It's impossible for V to make any big mistakes unless you flop a set and he pairs (less than 12%) and you will make a big mistake around 30% when he pairs and whatever percent that he slow plays a larger pair preflop, which is probably higher than you're giving credit for.