2/5 NL (7 handed)

Villain only plays poker for a living. Up to 10/20nl hold em and Omaha games. He's certainly capable of running bluffs but I've never seen him get too out of line. Not very splashy. Plays a pretty textbook game. Probably 20/14/5%3bet in full ring if I just had to estimate. He probably perceives me as fairly tight and risk adverse as I'm normally playing 1/2 but only occasionally play 2/5.

Hero (UTG):~500
Villain (UTG+1):~475
Villain 2, 3 both cover (HJ and CO)

Hero raises to 20 with AhJc. Villain calls. Villains 2 and 3 call.

Flop: 5s Jd 5c

Hero bets 60. Villain calls. Villains 2 and 3 fold.

Turn: Ks

Hero checks. Villain checks.

River 4c.

Hero bets 80. Villain goes all in.

Could he be bluffing thinking our range can't stand any heat here?

It's possible but probably not worth calling off.

when a thinking player takes a line which seems to be bluffy and stupid, they usually have it...

wow what is he even repping here.. i see ur dilemma... i would want to call this so bad. it just looks like he is trying to blow you off of a J so bad... not to mention there are almost no hands he calls OTF with that contain any Ks except for maybe KJ. i also cant think of any 5s in his hand aside from 55 based on ur description. maybe A5...

i would have just check/called this river, but as played man.. i dunno i really want to call here, but i guess u have to give him the benefit of the doubt and just fold.

sorry if my post wasnt very helpful. tough situation

what range do we even have villain on here to make this shove? JJ, kj, a5, 55?

i think if he floated to bluff you he would have done it on the turn.

good point.. i wonder how it woudlve played out if we double barrel this

sorry but villain is never bluffing here. you say he is good so he probably gives our UTG raise a lot of respect, so his range will be a bit tighter.

OTF we bet out 3/4 pot into 3 people, do you really think this thinking villain is going to cold call here with air, with 2 people still to act behind him, to bluff raise the river? the very lowest part of his range we will ever see him having on this river is KJ

and also if he did loosen up PF and call with 5X and spiked trips OTF he would almost certainly check back the K turn and jam river

well, playing devils advocat, he could have called our flop bet with 66-TT, viewing it as a cbet, check back turn, happy to show it down, and realize on the river that he is beat, but also realizes that you dont have much and is turning his bluffcatcher into a bluff. thats the only way i think he could be bluffing, but
1. most likely he is not calling 66-TT with 2 people behind.
2. he must realize that he looks weak also and that this is not the best spot for a bluff.

conclusion: he COULD be bluffing, but its pretty unlikely, i´d fold.

and going one further.
what could he have? 5x seems unlikely since you think he is solid and would have folded pre.
JJ? unlikely, u block an out.
KK? would have 3bet pre.
55? hard to flop quads.
check behind with a 5 on the turn? why, he wants to play for stacks?
check behind with KJ? why would he do that if he decided to shove the river?

hehe just fooling around, i stick to my story, we should fold, just wanted to show that we can always find a reason to call if we want to

Reads like a reverse HH, hero = villain.

He could be bluffing. But readless I would not bother calling off here. Fold and move to the next hand. If villain is competent as you say, I think you'll see AK and other type hands here that will get you to stack off in this spot if you call his all-in too. Without any further information I wouldn't even bother.

People just don't bluff shove here enough to make calling worth it.

How many times at 2/5 and lower have you seen someone bluff raise a river?

i think you should've bet the turn.

by checking the turn you've exposed yourself to a bluff opportunity by villain.

i'm not saying villain is bluffing but, if he's a good aggressive player, the chance of a bluff increases...which puts you in a tight spot that all poker players hate.

if i was the villain, i'd expect a fold 80% time if i bluff shove on the river.

Villain shouldn't be bluffing here very often at all given the call OTF with two players left to act. With that being said, I can see 44, 5x, AA and KK all being played this way. Also, to say that he can't have a 5 in his range here ever is just dumb. News flash, solid winning players some times make loose or "bad" calls before the flop. I might call here with like 75s if I think you have AA and will stack off after the flop. In the 2/5 game that I play in, I play like literally 70% of hands OTB and in the CO (disclaimer: game dynamics assessed before doing this). Yeah, that means calling 86o OTB after two limpers, only folding the most raggy looking hands.

not only that, but a K hits what i'd think our perceived range to be

I played a huge hand vs a winning regular that went pretty much exactly like this the other day.

If he floated flop, he's just going to stab the turn. I have no idea how he can have anything other than jacks full or a five here.

The only way I could see us being good here is if he reads river as a blocker and is turning his 66-1010 into bluffs.

+1,

Given OP's description, ie V plays 10/20nl for a living, it is EASILY in V's bag of tricks to turn his hand into a bluff.

When he SHOVES like this, he doesn't want you to call. You said V probably views you as tight right? And do tight players check turn and call overshoves on this spot? No, they fold. So V is clearly not shoving for value.

I'd call here. V has more than enough hands we beat in this spot.

To be clear, against a typical fish we can fold, but against a pro with our image, its an easy call.

Unless you have been paying of overshoves w light holdings all day... Bit you said your image is tight, so what is V trying to do? He's trying to fold us out. So call.

Whenever I have no idea what someone has, I usually call unless I have a great reason not to. Since I am currently lacking one, I am calling this.

Let me just start off by saying that I don't think Villain is bluffing. Your hand definitely looks weak, the best hand you can have in this scenario is AK. He can try to blow you off of tptk but given description I don't see him doing this and tptk is generally a hand you don't wanna be bluffing someone off at llsnl, he has to know you would be calling sometimes if not always.

His line looks like a bluff, that means that he most likely has the nuts, my guess is he has at least a 5, maybe boated up. In either case your beat, fold IMO.

Also, why did you check the turn? If you did it to induce a bluff then you have to call a river overbet don't you?

I think Villain is bluffing some of the time but the sucky pot odds would make me fold.

What hands of his are you value betting? 66-TT, JT, QJ are all you're beating. I can see him getting to the river with some/all of these but do you think he's making crying calls with any of them?

I like c/c most on river.