I played this hand at 2/5 pretty recently and was curious for some range analysis.

Hero (~$2000): Mid-late 20s white male playing a typical mid-late 20s player's game: raising limps pretty liberally, aggressive post-flop, etc. I've doubled my start stack mostly through showing down big hands in 2 or 3 big spots.

Villain (~$1100): Late 20s white male generally doing all of the same things villain has but probably a little bit on the tighter side. He has not 3-bet me in our first hour-and-a-half at the table together (he's 3 seats to my left). We played one big hand together in the last few minutes where he bet flop and river with AT on T8855 and I check/called down with worse.

Pre-flop: 3 limps from EP, hero raises to $35 from HJ with 9d9h, villain 3-bets to $120 from SB, hero calls.

Flop: 8h - 7s - 3c

Villain bets $125, hero calls relatively quickly.

Turn: Qs

Villain bets $210, hero tanks for two minutes before calling.

River: 6d

Villain jams for $580.

Are you calling with my hand? If not, what is the worst hand you would consider calling with?

No. And fold flop

I call flop/fold turn, if I tank for two minutes before calling turn I'm calling river, but I'm not calling river. Worse hand I call with is AQhh/ss/cc

Pre is pretty close, but I can't fault you for calling or folding.
Given that his range is pretty strong, we are going to get stacks in a good portion of time that we flop a set, so we should be ok calling here.

I'd probably fold the flop given his history of not 3betting much if at all.
I'd def fold the turn given that he looks like he is setting up for a nice river shove which we shouldn't be calling.
I think the only hands that he double barrels here is AKss and maaybe AQs.
I guess if he can have T9s in his pre flop 3bet range he would barrel that also, but given his low 3bet frequency, I doubt that he does.

I'd also fold turn (and maybe flop) given history.
We have shown to be somewhat stationary so I think he will be bluffing less than the average V with a similar description.

Given the prior HH you mention, that you c/c down with worse, why is V ever bluffing when you've proven you'll station TPWK?

Flop call is fine, c/f turn. You're not getting proper odds to setmine pre, but it is kind of nitty to fold a decent pp if you know V is 3betting light.

Edit ok looks like iraise took care of all of that

If you've been playing together for 90 minutes, more details should be provided, but if that is all you have: fold river> fold pre> call river> fold flop.

So I was a bit deceptive in posting the details of this hand. I was actually the villain. I didn't want to skew any opinions on ranges by posting my exact hand yet. I was mostly interested in the (real) villain's calling range here which is why I asked from his perspective.

He tanked for five minutes before folding, and I just can't imagine he'd fold any Qx that shows up there (I also don't know if the real villain actually had 99). Therefore, I assume he most likely either had 8x, 99-JJ, or like ATss that was mostly just tanking to save face.

For the record, I had JTcc. I'm sure knowing that would have changed several people's answers. Felt borderline at the time but figured the strength of my perceived range should allow me to show up with a few bluffs in this spot and JTs (without any spade blockers) is probably the worst hand I have in my 3 bet range that makes it to this river. Villain seemed like the type who wasn't going to fold one pair on the turn (especially with position) but would be good enough to realize I don't have too many bluffs that get to this river.

From the sound of it, I probably would've ran smack into AA or a set 99% of the time against most of the people itt. Lucky for me, real villain was not one of those people

Thanks to all who contributed their thoughts.

What were you hoping to fold out on the river that calls the turn

Everything worse than a Q. I think he should expect me to follow up with several of my bluffs on the turn and thus probably isn't folding too many one pairs in position getting 3.5:1. However, the river is fairly innocuous and I don't think he should expect me to have too many bluffs at that point other than maybe some Axss type hands (which he could've easily just have had himself). Kind of unfortunate that I block JJ and TT, but I do think this particular villain didn't seem like the type who would fold 89s or even A8s to a 3b pre so he should have hands like that as well. I also don't block any spades.

I also had the benefit of knowing I had bet that AT pretty large on the T8855 on him very recently (like within 15 minutes), and thus he may have it fresh on his mind that I could go for wider value with top pair than I think how most would perceive a typical 2/5 reg (not saying I would or wouldn't, just saying he may still be a little outcome biased from it). So I do think he's getting to this river with 99-JJ, some 8x hands, and some backdoor spades. I'm dead to slowplayed AA/KK, QQ (the former 3 are probably unlikely), Qx, 88, T9s, 87s, or 77. Debatable if I can make him fold the 38% I need but I felt it's probably pretty close.

If you think villain is enough of a calling station to get to the river with 99, then it seems really optimistic to hope he'll fold now.

Of course the bluff worked one way or another, but seems incorrect generally.

I think there's a considerable gap between, "he's a calling station who never folds," to, "he's capable of reconsidering his options in the face of more information."

did u put villain on ak?

Calling the turn in this spot with a 99 type hand is about as calling station as you can be.

So you're just only calling the turn with sets?

I agree that there is a decent percentage of the 2/5 player pool who have top-heavy, unbalanced 3-bet ranges where I probably would have just folded 99 on the flop even with position. However, I think that type of dynamic is out the window when you're dealing with anybody who is remotely capable of trying to represent hands they don't have rather than only playing the ones they actually do. Most younger guys are in the former and not the latter, and most people capable of representing any type of non-narrow range will want to bluff many of their hands when the turn is a Q with a backdoor suit.

My guess would be if we're adopting a "no set no bet" strategy for this spot, then we're also probably not flatting the 3b pre with 77 and 88 and you're not showing up with something like AQ since that would fold the flop. So what are you showing up with?

"Hero" really shouldn't call turn with a made hand if he's folding river. Folding turn is probably best, but if hero is calling turn with a hand like 99, hero should call river as well.

So you are of the opinion that 'villains' betting range stays the same between turn and river? I do not believe this to be true

No, but I generally find the triple barrel in live games to be super polarized. Many Vs don't triple barrel AA, KK or AQ on this board, especially since T9 and QQ got there, and so if "V" is shoving river for value I think he will have a set, straight or two pair. Given that V hasn't 3-bet in 90 minutes, I'd be surprised if V is 3-betting pre with pocket pairs 88 and below, and I'd be surprised if he's 3-betting suited connectors/gappers (shows what I know), so it's hard for him to have two pair or a straight, which means his value range is QQ and some subset of the AA and KK combos. His bluff range is a ton of AK combos.

To be clear, I think fold turn is best here. However, once I'm calling turn, to me the river barrel means that V is either super strong or bluffing, and so I'm calling with my bluff catcher here. I would fold on an ace or king river.