Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-28-2014, 09:52 PM   #1
Olaff
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: from strength to strength
Posts: 1,643
$2/$5 NL: Commitment vs Offering Enticing Pot Odds OTT

Let's say you started the hand $500 eff. You're ahead on the flop, and you bet but there is a flush draw. You're still sure you're ahead on the turn and the FD didn't come in. You want to get a call and have the villain keep drawing at the wrong pot odds. You decide to bet $150 which happens to be 1/2 pot which is enough to deny proper pot odds and induce a call from bad players.

Now here's where the problem comes in. Let's suppose that after betting $150 OTT you have only $150 left. So you're basically commited to calling ANY river even if the flush draw comes in. So being committed OTR can "force" you to make the wrong call when flush hits on the river.

What's the solution? Shove turn for $300 to avoid this issue on the river? Or this is not a problem at all as most of the time the flush won't come and we'll actually force our opponent to call off the remaining $150 regardless AND basically he'll waste $150 way more often than we'll "waste" $150 so net-net in the long-term this commitment "dilemma" is good for us?
Olaff is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2014, 09:59 PM   #2
iraisetoomuch
banned
 
iraisetoomuch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 33,633
Re: $2/$5 NL: Commitment vs Offering Enticing Pot Odds OTT

So, I actually started to write a theory post on this this morning and I will post it later assuming I can make it sound good.

But I think the idea that you are pot committed is overrated.

On the turn, when you bet if you are sure that you are ahead, and that he has a flush draw, even though you are getting 5:1 on the river or 4:1 on the river it doesn't matter. If the flush comes in fold.

If you're 80% sure that he has the flush, and 20% of the time he has anything else, then if you're getting better than 4:1 you should call, and if you're getting worse than 4:1 you should fold.

I understand the question, we feel stupid folding for $50 into 300, $150 into $600 and $750 into $3000, but if we are not winning, we should fold. If we are not getting the right price to call for as often as we expect to be good, then fold.

It's a math question.

Edit:

It doesn't matter how must money is in the pot. When you are losing, you are losing. If a player is kind enough to play their hand or range face up, and we are smart enough to read what they are telling us, then we win by folding the river. By not giving them the correct IO + DO to make the call. Sure, in this case they won our money that we put in on the turn, but over the long haul, they are losing 10%, 20%, 40% of their turn bet by calling us because all the times they miss, we take the pot, and all the times they hit, they get nothing else.

It's what separates us from the 'I just had to see it' donks that we value bet to death. It's why we know how to hand read, they don't, and why we crush for 10+bb and why they breka even or lose.

Last edited by iraisetoomuch; 03-28-2014 at 10:04 PM.
iraisetoomuch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 01:53 AM   #3
CallMeVernon
COTM Crusher
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Not Vancouver, BC
Posts: 3,442
Re: $2/$5 NL: Commitment vs Offering Enticing Pot Odds OTT

1) How did you get $200 of your own money in preflop and on the flop and get to the turn with a $300 pot? Check your math.

2) How do you know Villain won't call off all $300 with a worse hand if you jam turn? This question is totally moot until you know that.
CallMeVernon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 02:39 AM   #4
DUCYdonk
adept
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 755
Re: $2/$5 NL: Commitment vs Offering Enticing Pot Odds OTT

CMV is correct: Math doesn't add up.
IRTM is correct: 100,000,000:1 pot odds wouldn't be enough to justify a call if you *know* you are beaten.

In your example, I'm probably just shoving turn. IF 150 is a 1/2psb then the pot is 300. If you only had 300 (which makes sense if after betting 150 you have 150 left), then just bet a full PSB. People chase with terrible odds like this all the time.
DUCYdonk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 07:19 PM   #5
Olaff
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: from strength to strength
Posts: 1,643
Re: $2/$5 NL: Commitment vs Offering Enticing Pot Odds OTT

The math does add up and what happened before the turn is not relevant to the question anyway.
Olaff is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 07:53 PM   #6
Willyoman
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Willyoman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 10,468
Re: $2/$5 NL: Commitment vs Offering Enticing Pot Odds OTT

You're never really "committed" to a hand.

And you're never ever ever "committed" if it's clear villain outdrew you.

/ Thread.
Willyoman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 08:00 PM   #7
GetMoney984
centurion
 
GetMoney984's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 153
Re: $2/$5 NL: Commitment vs Offering Enticing Pot Odds OTT

I believe in shipping the turn. You've built a decent pot why not take it down? You don't want to be the guy bitching about how he got there on the river.
GetMoney984 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 09:32 PM   #8
iraisetoomuch
banned
 
iraisetoomuch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 33,633
Re: $2/$5 NL: Commitment vs Offering Enticing Pot Odds OTT

Quote:
Originally Posted by GetMoney984 View Post
I believe in shipping the turn. You've built a decent pot why not take it down? You don't want to be the guy bitching about how he got there on the river.
This is a leak for you.
If you ever take down a pot because 'it's big enough to take down' or 'this is good enough' then you are losing value.

No pot is big enough. No pot is decent.
No pot has a cap to what it's size can be.

If we are taking down a pot because we think it's big enough, it means that we are scared of playing another street.
We want to play more streets. We want to hand read, and make thin value bets. Any time we allow the hand to play out for an extra street, and we get an extra $30, $40, $50 that someone else wouldn't that's a HUGE boost to our win rate. People who are bad at poker don't want to play the turn, the river, the next street. They don't want to play deep because they are afraid. They are afraid of the being out drawn. They don't understand how often it will happen, they don't know how to bet size correctly to give their villains the incorrect odds to draw.

But that's what makes us better. That's what we strive for, to make the hard plays. To make the hard calls. And to get value where other people will not.


Think about it, if you play an average of 5 hours per session at 1/2, and make 3bb per hour. Then you realize that there is a spot when you're 'taking the pot down because it's big enough' only one time per session. And you could make an extra $50 by betting the river.

So, now you add $50 to your win rate, which at a 1/2 will translate to an extra $10/hour. You are adding 5bb/hour. You will more than double your win rate.

Please don't ever take down the pot because it's big enough.
iraisetoomuch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2014, 09:55 PM   #9
GetMoney984
centurion
 
GetMoney984's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 153
Re: $2/$5 NL: Commitment vs Offering Enticing Pot Odds OTT

I see your point and I appreciate it. I had a session today that tilted my answer to this thread. Rather than flame me you made a very helpful post. Thank you.
GetMoney984 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2014, 12:23 AM   #10
sb77
grinder
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 559
Re: $2/$5 NL: Commitment vs Offering Enticing Pot Odds OTT

one of the weakest lines players go for is chk call, chi call, donk river

last night i played against a tight older guy, only ever 3b AA, only ever raises with the nuts etc

i raise 7 pf with 99, he flats 100eff stacks

2dd flop i bet 10 he flats

brick turn i bet 20 he flats

river completes flush he donks 35

i fold he shows A2dd

i don't think with 100bb no matter what i bet otf or ott within reason he folds
how much should i have bet (so he calls obv) but still give him incorrect odds to call?
sb77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2014, 03:57 AM   #11
iraisetoomuch
banned
 
iraisetoomuch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 33,633
Re: $2/$5 NL: Commitment vs Offering Enticing Pot Odds OTT

Quote:
Originally Posted by sb77 View Post
one of the weakest lines players go for is chk call, chi call, donk river

last night i played against a tight older guy, only ever 3b AA, only ever raises with the nuts etc

i raise 7 pf with 99, he flats 100eff stacks

2dd flop i bet 10 he flats

brick turn i bet 20 he flats

river completes flush he donks 35

i fold he shows A2dd

i don't think with 100bb no matter what i bet otf or ott within reason he folds
how much should i have bet (so he calls obv) but still give him incorrect odds to call?
Two important points here:
He had incorrect odds to call in this hand.

On the turn, he called a $20 (whatever the conversion is) bet into a $20 into $54 pot, which gives him 2.7:1 odd on his money. Not the correct odds if you don't plan to call a river bet. Which you did not. So, he made a mistake. You played the hand just fine.

Point 2: You should bet the most that you think that he will call.
It doesn't really matter what reasonable is. If you think that he will call a .5 PSB on the turn, then bet that. If you think that he will call a PSB bet that. Just be the biggest bet that you think that he will call while still drawing to incorrect odds.
iraisetoomuch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2014, 02:53 PM   #12
Larry Lido
grinder
 
Larry Lido's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL
Posts: 673
Grunch,
The "commitment" rule is a blanket statement and therefore really has no place in a thinking player's game. If you know you're beat then fold. If you're not getting the right odds to draw then fold. If a Villain bets $50 on the river into a $100 pot then you're getting 3-1 odds to call, so if you think you have the best hand 1 out of 4 times then calling is neutral EV.
Larry Lido is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2014, 04:01 PM   #13
stringbettor
grinder
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 424
Re: $2/$5 NL: Commitment vs Offering Enticing Pot Odds OTT

One way to deal with this would be to bet an amount that denies him the proper implied odds to draw. He is 3.9:1 to make a flush draw if he has it and there is $300 in the pot on the turn and you are $300 behind, so if 600/B < 3.9 (any bet larger than $154) he doesn't have odds to call.
stringbettor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2014, 04:17 PM   #14
stringbettor
grinder
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 424
Re: $2/$5 NL: Commitment vs Offering Enticing Pot Odds OTT

Quote:
Originally Posted by stringbettor View Post
One way to deal with this would be to bet an amount that denies him the proper implied odds to draw. He is 3.9:1 to make a flush draw if he has it and there is $300 in the pot on the turn and you are $300 behind, so if 600/B < 3.9 (any bet larger than $154) he doesn't have odds to call.
Also his implied odds are somewhat less because there should be uncertainty over what you hold. For example:
You could be drawing at a bigger flush than him
You could have a weak made hand you can lay down if the flush hits since you are no longer beating anything.
You could be bluffing, and lay down on the river if the flush hits and bets, but bluff him off his hand if a blank hits and he checks.
stringbettor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2014, 06:13 PM   #15
ggnoobs
adept
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 981
Re: $2/$5 NL: Commitment vs Offering Enticing Pot Odds OTT

raise bigger pre.
bet the flop bigger.
you could try betting turn small too, even if you bet 1/3rd pot it doesnt give him direct odds, and you might even induce some silly move from him.

in general as you play more you will get better at planning the hand from the beginning so you don't wind up with this "now what?" awkward stack size on the turn.
ggnoobs is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:14 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive