Let's say you started the hand $500 eff. You're ahead on the flop, and you bet but there is a flush draw. You're still sure you're ahead on the turn and the FD didn't come in. You want to get a call and have the villain keep drawing at the wrong pot odds. You decide to bet $150 which happens to be 1/2 pot which is enough to deny proper pot odds and induce a call from bad players.

Now here's where the problem comes in. Let's suppose that after betting $150 OTT you have only $150 left. So you're basically commited to calling ANY river even if the flush draw comes in. So being committed OTR can "force" you to make the wrong call when flush hits on the river.

What's the solution? Shove turn for $300 to avoid this issue on the river? Or this is not a problem at all as most of the time the flush won't come and we'll actually force our opponent to call off the remaining $150 regardless AND basically he'll waste $150 way more often than we'll "waste" $150 so net-net in the long-term this commitment "dilemma" is good for us?

So, I actually started to write a theory post on this this morning and I will post it later assuming I can make it sound good.

But I think the idea that you are pot committed is overrated.

On the turn, when you bet if you are sure that you are ahead, and that he has a flush draw, even though you are getting 5:1 on the river or 4:1 on the river it doesn't matter. If the flush comes in fold.

If you're 80% sure that he has the flush, and 20% of the time he has anything else, then if you're getting better than 4:1 you should call, and if you're getting worse than 4:1 you should fold.

I understand the question, we feel stupid folding for $50 into 300, $150 into $600 and $750 into $3000, but if we are not winning, we should fold. If we are not getting the right price to call for as often as we expect to be good, then fold.

It's a math question.

Edit:

It doesn't matter how must money is in the pot. When you are losing, you are losing. If a player is kind enough to play their hand or range face up, and we are smart enough to read what they are telling us, then we win by folding the river. By not giving them the correct IO + DO to make the call. Sure, in this case they won our money that we put in on the turn, but over the long haul, they are losing 10%, 20%, 40% of their turn bet by calling us because all the times they miss, we take the pot, and all the times they hit, they get nothing else.

It's what separates us from the 'I just had to see it' donks that we value bet to death. It's why we know how to hand read, they don't, and why we crush for 10+bb and why they breka even or lose.

1) How did you get $200 of your own money in preflop and on the flop and get to the turn with a $300 pot? Check your math.

2) How do you know Villain won't call off all $300 with a worse hand if you jam turn? This question is totally moot until you know that.

CMV is correct: Math doesn't add up.
IRTM is correct: 100,000,000:1 pot odds wouldn't be enough to justify a call if you *know* you are beaten.

In your example, I'm probably just shoving turn. IF 150 is a 1/2psb then the pot is 300. If you only had 300 (which makes sense if after betting 150 you have 150 left), then just bet a full PSB. People chase with terrible odds like this all the time.

The math does add up and what happened before the turn is not relevant to the question anyway.

You're never really "committed" to a hand.

And you're never ever ever "committed" if it's clear villain outdrew you.

/ Thread.

I believe in shipping the turn. You've built a decent pot why not take it down? You don't want to be the guy bitching about how he got there on the river.

This is a leak for you.
If you ever take down a pot because 'it's big enough to take down' or 'this is good enough' then you are losing value.

No pot is big enough. No pot is decent.
No pot has a cap to what it's size can be.

If we are taking down a pot because we think it's big enough, it means that we are scared of playing another street.
We want to play more streets. We want to hand read, and make thin value bets. Any time we allow the hand to play out for an extra street, and we get an extra $30, $40, $50 that someone else wouldn't that's a HUGE boost to our win rate. People who are bad at poker don't want to play the turn, the river, the next street. They don't want to play deep because they are afraid. They are afraid of the being out drawn. They don't understand how often it will happen, they don't know how to bet size correctly to give their villains the incorrect odds to draw.

But that's what makes us better. That's what we strive for, to make the hard plays. To make the hard calls. And to get value where other people will not.


Think about it, if you play an average of 5 hours per session at 1/2, and make 3bb per hour. Then you realize that there is a spot when you're 'taking the pot down because it's big enough' only one time per session. And you could make an extra $50 by betting the river.

So, now you add $50 to your win rate, which at a 1/2 will translate to an extra $10/hour. You are adding 5bb/hour. You will more than double your win rate.

Please don't ever take down the pot because it's big enough.

I see your point and I appreciate it. I had a session today that tilted my answer to this thread. Rather than flame me you made a very helpful post. Thank you.

one of the weakest lines players go for is chk call, chi call, donk river

last night i played against a tight older guy, only ever 3b AA, only ever raises with the nuts etc

i raise £7 pf with 99, he flats £100eff stacks

2dd flop i bet £10 he flats

brick turn i bet £20 he flats

river completes flush he donks £35

i fold he shows A2dd

i don't think with 100bb no matter what i bet otf or ott within reason he folds
how much should i have bet (so he calls obv) but still give him incorrect odds to call?

Two important points here:
He had incorrect odds to call in this hand.

On the turn, he called a $20 (whatever the conversion is) bet into a $20 into $54 pot, which gives him 2.7:1 odd on his money. Not the correct odds if you don't plan to call a river bet. Which you did not. So, he made a mistake. You played the hand just fine.

Point 2: You should bet the most that you think that he will call.
It doesn't really matter what reasonable is. If you think that he will call a .5 PSB on the turn, then bet that. If you think that he will call a PSB bet that. Just be the biggest bet that you think that he will call while still drawing to incorrect odds.

Grunch,
The "commitment" rule is a blanket statement and therefore really has no place in a thinking player's game. If you know you're beat then fold. If you're not getting the right odds to draw then fold. If a Villain bets $50 on the river into a $100 pot then you're getting 3-1 odds to call, so if you think you have the best hand 1 out of 4 times then calling is neutral EV.

One way to deal with this would be to bet an amount that denies him the proper implied odds to draw. He is 3.9:1 to make a flush draw if he has it and there is $300 in the pot on the turn and you are $300 behind, so if 600/B < 3.9 (any bet larger than $154) he doesn't have odds to call.

Also his implied odds are somewhat less because there should be uncertainty over what you hold. For example:
You could be drawing at a bigger flush than him
You could have a weak made hand you can lay down if the flush hits since you are no longer beating anything.
You could be bluffing, and lay down on the river if the flush hits and bets, but bluff him off his hand if a blank hits and he checks.

raise bigger pre.
bet the flop bigger.
you could try betting turn small too, even if you bet 1/3rd pot it doesnt give him direct odds, and you might even induce some silly move from him.

in general as you play more you will get better at planning the hand from the beginning so you don't wind up with this "now what?" awkward stack size on the turn.