Me and Villain both have $1,400 behind. I open UTG for $20 with aces. He makes it $60 with JJ in MP. Folds around to me, I make it $200, he snap calls.

Flop comes KJ6 rainbow. I lead 200, he calls.

Turn comes 4. I check call 375.

Rivers comes 4. I check call 600.

I hadn't been at this table long, and I hadn't seen Villain 3-bet one time. When he snap called my 200 re-raise, I put him on Tens+. Didn't think he would snap call 200 with 99 or AQo. Would he value bet AK like this? Can I find a fold on the turn or do I just need to call off?

If you range V on TT+, AK this flop is really bad. It's hard to keep from stacks getting in when it's 4 bet pre. You're ahead of 6 combos of AK since we are blocking and 6 combos of QQ along with 6 combos of TT. We are behind 3 combos of KK and 3 combos of JJ. Once V calls the flop I think we can eliminate TT from his range. Checking the turn could induce a stack off from AK or maybe even QQ if V is aggro and senses weakness. AP I don't see how we can fold turn without a soul read since AK is still there. AP since AK is just as likely (6 combos) as KK / JJ. If we called turn we have to stack off river.

I was going to explore checking the flop since SPR is already so low but with this run out I just don't see how the money isn't getting in.

In the future, put V hands/results in a spoiler. It taints people's responses.

The turn is the key action for me. We 4! pre, V calls flop. The check is the right move, but I'm making the fold as he leads out. 4 didn't help anyone, so V has a made hand or a bluff.

Given the action, I find a fold and tell no one what I had.

Easy money

You're right I should have included villain's hand at the end of the thread. I'm new at this. Thanks for the insights, much appreciated!

Is the reason that people say fold due to their putting him on KKK?

On the flop, betting targets 6 combos of AK that are behind. QQ likely folding, so I’d bet smaller, $130ish.

As played, once the opponent calls ½ PSB on flop, checking turn is good. From a combo perspective, 6 AK vs. 6 KK/JJ, I’d make the call, planning to C/F river unimproved. I’d expect AK to slow down given our line – 4b pre, bet flop, C/C turn.

Live reads and opponent history/image are important.

But on the river we are calling $600 with $2,200 already in the pot. Can you really be that sure it's never AK that didn't slow down like many would have? So many Vs play top / top like it's the nuts. Especially when we slow down on the turn. Also, since many players don't have a 5 bet range I'd imagine the last combo of AA could take this line as well. For that sizing with that SPR I just can't find a river fold here.

I think V has AK at least 25% of the time here making it a profitable call.

Check/calling the turn is strong in the sense that most opponents will likely believe Hero is not folding to a river bet. With opponent betting, I’d need more like 6-1 to call, perhaps smaller sizing gets a call.

Villain (if AK) has to worry about 9 combos of AA/KK/JJ vs. 6 combos of same hand.

I think you're giving V too much credit. Is Hero really checking river with a boat and praying that V bets behind so he can get the rest in given this line? If V checks back that's a disaster. Giving hero all 9 combos of flopped sets on the river given this line if V had AK seems very very far fetched. Maybe the JJ in a 4 bet pot. But never the AA and not even the remaining combo of KK in my experience. So if hero only has 3 or 4 boats and V has the next best hand and may get chops to fold, why wouldn't he jam river? I think this spot is much tougher given how the hand played.

So to summarize: If V has AK there are only 7 combos of AA, KK, JJ left and it's super unlikely that AA, KK checks this river with a boat risking losing $600 in value just to try to induce.

Check flop. I'm probably not paying off a 600 river bet in a 4b pot.

Never mind me, I guess I'm just a station. I did think about checking flop in my first post but even If we do x flop I assume we are still calling flop and turn with similar sizing which brings us back to the same spot on the river. Since it's 4b we aren't THAT under-rep'd but I still doubt I get away from this in real time. In my games I see AK just as much as QQ+ in 4b pots.

For people saying just check fold the turn....like how? On what planet? If we are going to give the V that much credit and play that passively why not just check the flop and start going into trying to get to showdown mode as cheaply as possible.

Maybe my line is bad here but for me it’s bet, then c/c > b/f > c/f, c/fold river to a bomb

either 75% flop, ship turn
or 25% flop, 50% turn, ship river
don't check at any point

he has some suited broadways too, not just TT+, who knows what else

I'm not folding here without live reads. Way too may V will bet AK like this.

That being said, I'd still be in pot control mode from the second I see that flop.

Start by checking the flop. If he checks back, lead turn and river small (1/3 pot each time). AK is calling for sure (but not raising).

If he bets flop, you can consider folding by the river depending on sizings used.

he showed JJ just check/fold the flop

Board sizing live timing deep range positions line all equals boat

Most players don't thin value rivers, so imho a bet on all post-flop streets with TPTK is less likely. If they do, river sizing might be closer to $375 than $600.

Could be differing player pools.

Another thought from the V perspective … OTT, what hands does AK get value from? Once called, what worse hands does a river bet get called by?

Folding a set here would be really exploitative, also you have the top of your range here so you must call most ruis