15 is a weak open at this room. Standard opens are 20-25.

I'm ready to get it in here, no reason this guy should have KK+ after a $15 open and a call unless we have serious history as a habitual squeezer in these spots. I don't like/understand the 5! sizing though, would rather go bigger and maximize FE since we are going to be calling it off anyway.

Like I mentioned above, we are basically never worse than flipping here. I just can't see this guy flatting AA/KK after an open and a call. Sucks that's a high variance flip, but with the dead money in the pot, we can't fold. I also think the 5! was a tad too small - a little larger might've incentivized him not to make this play, since we'd be obviously committed at that point.

Against a range of JJ+ and AK we have 42.7% equity and we're getting 1.3-1 on a call, which is requiring 43.4% equity. Against QQ+ and AK we have 41%.

It's razor thin, but it is a fold against this range. Johnny, will he be in here 6-bet shoving with a wider range?

Edit: In game, I call it off. I can't imagine this guy is A) flatting a fish's open OTB with AA/KK with an aggro image, and B) doing so with a good player in the blinds.

Once he back raised you, he's either being tricky/trappy typical low stakes mentality of holding QQ+, or another AK hand.

***Most, the overwhelming majority, of low stakes players all of sudden turn into simpletons when their holding a monster and someone else is adding chips to the pot. This dude was holding QQ+

The trouble w/ adding the 4th bet and *thinking* or assuming he's all of sudden turning weak passive is just crazy! Plus, now you have shown weakness...of course he's going to jam on you!

However the real problem lies in spending 1/3 of your stack to play this little game.
You're going to donk off 30% of your $1,100 stack and just to fold? Someone's going to have to show me how this investment pays off????

GRUNCH....just flip with this dude! Flip this one hand and be done with it, worst case you're a 40/60 dog. Investing a bunch of chips and then folding makes you the loser -period.

I hate the small 5! So much. I understand it leaves you room to not pot commit yourself but all that matters right now is what you range him.

Can we eliminate AA KK AK AQ QQ from his range? You said he likes to 3! And this is a hand that screams 3! Part of me wants to range him at < 66 or QQ+ everything else should always 3!

What you think his range is here, is so important. From the way you describe this villain it appears to me he is super polarized. By making the small 5! You get one more chance to decide if he's full of it.

Did you size the 5! Small specifically because you wanted to not be pot committed, like if you had AA would you size your bet this way?

I fold and I hate it so much, should have decided on the 4! If we were playing for stacks.

Based on this info, if it fair to rule out AA - TT, AK-AT, and KQ from Button's range because he should be raising with them instead?

Your math is wrong. There's $1470 in the pot ($1100 from V + $340 from H + $15 each from HJ and CO) and it's $760 for hero to call ($1100 - $340). H is getting 1.93:1 on a call ($1470 / $760) and needs 34% equity to call (1/2.93).

Oh snap! Thank you for clarifying! I is stoopid.

Yeah it's a call here, we have 41% equity against QQ+, AK.

If the Villain did show up with AA or KK and I was the Hero, I would look at my own tells.
Is there any chance you looked like you were about to raise when the action was on the Button prompting him to call instead? As played - get it in.

Gotta go with it. If he's competent as you say he never ever had a big PP unless he's certain you're raising which seems unlikely. Stick it in and hit.

I'm assuming you play enough to have seen lots of weird stuff. Agreed that it is unlikely, however isn't it also unlikely that a thinking player would ever do this in the first place knowing his range is weak? I think that...

Because of the weak open it increases the chances that he's trying to hit a homerun.

I think as played fold to the initial back raise. We are praying for a 70/30, but that's even more unlikely than the other two options which are flips and 10/90s.

Anything else is bad

This. A player is stacking off 200bb pre. Can he have AA? Sure. But he really really really should not.

Yeah, it's tough to have AA or KK when you flat a lp raise and then backraise, but it becomes more likely that he did that when he 6 bets pre. This is a call, but it's only marginally +ev.

I'd Nit fold to the 4!, but perhaps I am not understanding the meta in play.

It seems more liekly to me that he thinks he's winning a leveling war with a reg than he made a ridiculously bad play preflop and lucked out. If he has better than JJ then take a note and F him up later with a set.

I wasn't a fan of the 5bet from the start, but given the V history/dynamic with OP I don't think we can fold now. Math above is right, we're just about 2:1 on the call and we can assume he has a pair under KK.

If he's sick enough to have AA/KK then he's just as sick to have Ax or Kx.

In practice I'd fold, in theory though, we must call.

I agree with you that KK/AA is not a huge part of his range at this point, both due to preflop action of him just flatting the button- and we also have blockers to those combos making them even less likely.

However, i dont agree that he neccesarily played it ridicilously bad. If he indeed had KK+ here and managed to get hero to stick in 230 BB with AK that is a pretty epic result for him right?

The biggest pots i have won in my life ever with KK/AA have been when playing those hands in a similar way with deep stacks: trying to undersell my hand the best i can, and giving other players in the hand a chance to put in alot more money in this pot than they would have thought of in the first place with a weaker range. To me managing to pick an unconventional line and then accomplish to get in 200 BB+ preflop with the nutz sounds pretty good.

Also: when he chooses to 6 bet shove here i dont think there is much "levelling war" left in villains range anymore, and i would not be that surprised if hero called and villain showed up with KK+.

Grunch
It's such a crappy spot for you being deep and he likely knows it given your history...I'd put his range on 55-88, JTs+ 67s+, etc. Pretty much I'd expect him to have a hand that plays well multi-way but doesn't get crushed by your 3bet range when he 4bets - if you call.

Any idea on how likely he thinks you are to 5bet with KK+ this deep?

Unless you knew for certain that her was gonna 3 bet his play was terrible with fish in the hand.

As played and assuming V 6bet shoves with KK+ 50% of the time, Flopzila gives you 41% equity against JJ+, and with only needing 34%, it's a call.

This is a tough spot, but I agree with this analysis. I recognize that it's quite rare for someone to flat on the button with KK+. On the other hand, it's also very rare for someone to 6-bet/shove over $1000 in a 2/5 game with less than KK (and maybe with less than AA). So I have two actions that I can't really reconcile. When that happens, I usually think that the one with the big money attached, the shove, is straightforward, because people are more apt to take unorthodox lines when facing/making small bets than when getting over 200 bbs in the middle.

That said, it is a tough spot. Problem is that when we call we're still just flipping, so while there's dead money and it's +EV, it needs to be +EV enough to make up for the times he shows up with AA.

It's such a weird spot because he shouldn't have a value range. The only thing that makes sense to backraise is something dumb because he thinks you're fos. He can't rep a strong hand so bluffing makes no sense either

With position and deep stacks he cam flat anything pre with playability. That's the more likely outcomes with mid pairs and good suiteds.

If he wants to get it in the only thing that makes sense is some weird merge with like 99 but it's so dumb 200bb deep against your uncapped range.

So when nothing makes sense and he actually wants to stick in 200bb I think he has AA a ton. When nothing makes sense and people want to stack off either they are a moron button clicker or they have the nuts. Doesn't sound from OP like villain is a spewy moron so....

I advocated a few posts ago squeezing bigger. You're in the sb you don't want to see flops. And if you do, you want your card advantage to have a bigger effect eg spr to be smaller.

Another effect of a bigger sqz would have made his backraise bigger.

I also advocated jamming pre. Again I want to Max fe. I don't want to see a flop and I want to collect dead money. If you think his range is like kk+ and some dumb bluffs it's a pretty trivial math question on whether jamming here is good

5b/f is a complete disaster. Call and take a flop is better. I even think folding to the backraise is better.

I still think given the best suited blockers in the game and 65ish bb dead in the middle you should have just ripped it pre. If he happens to have AA well done he's sooo lucky you have AKs here and not any of the million of great hands you can over call pre and take his AA to the flop 4 ways (where he's burning money against 2 fish)

he has TT, call and be happy about it. When you start developing a 3b meta game with a regular there is no way AKs is not a snap gii for 200bb most of the time. especially this time given how the action went down