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Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

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Old 05-29-2014, 10:09 PM   #1
Olaff
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$2/$5 NL: AKo Facing a 4-bet

$500 eff. My image: young TAG. Villain: young Asian donk.

My history with villain. He 3-bet my preflop raise before and folded to my 4-bet. So I know he 3-bets less than AA/KK. Overall my impression of the guy is a fish. He doesn't know what he's doing.

Fairly wide opener opens to $20 in MP, I look down at AKo in HJ and 3-bet to $60, V in SB 4-bets to $125.

There's now $5+$20+$60+$125 = $210 in the pot. If I shove then I'm getting 650:440 = 1.48:1 and need 40% equity. I estimate V's 3-bet range to be AQ+/JJ+ or wider.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.289% 37.61% 11.68% 401838924 124799748.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 50.711% 39.03% 11.68% 417039276 124799748.00 { AKs, AKo }


According to stoving my estimate of his range, I'm getting 50%.

Would you shove or fold and why?
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Old 05-29-2014, 10:41 PM   #2
SunChips
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Re: $2/$5 NL: AKo Facing a 4-bet

Beware the small 4 bet.

Just out of curiosity, what was the 3! sizing?
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Old 05-29-2014, 10:55 PM   #3
Olaff
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Re: $2/$5 NL: AKo Facing a 4-bet

Quote:
Originally Posted by SunChips View Post
Beware the small 4 bet.

Just out of curiosity, what was the 3! sizing?
You mean when he 3-bet-folded? Don't remember
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Old 05-30-2014, 03:19 AM   #4
Tucco
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Re: $2/$5 NL: AKo Facing a 4-bet

I'm folding to the cold 4bet. You're going to be way behind here most of the time. I would be really surprised if villain even had QQ here.
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Old 05-30-2014, 07:19 AM   #5
adam levine
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Re: $2/$5 NL: AKo Facing a 4-bet

Take out the combos of AQ and Ak off and you will have a much more accurate range.
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Old 05-30-2014, 09:30 AM   #6
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Re: $2/$5 NL: AKo Facing a 4-bet

Not enough info.

The 3 bets. Were they IP vs a weak position? And what sizing?

Small 4 bets OOP are quite a bit different from 3 bets IP tif that is what they were.

Young Asian counterbalances this all a bit.
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Old 05-30-2014, 11:09 AM   #7
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Re: $2/$5 NL: AKo Facing a 4-bet

Looks like he's crying for a call or a 5 bet w/such a small 4 bet....

Fold.
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Old 05-30-2014, 03:27 PM   #8
Olaff
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Re: $2/$5 NL: AKo Facing a 4-bet

Spoiler:


One thing on my mind is... The original raiser...... if there's Ax or Kx in his range and there are definitely are... if I have AK and I fold him out with my 3-bet... then I folded out a good portion of my outs, no? And then when I shove I have fewer outs cause OR probably had them. Now what if there's a raise and several callers that I folded out with a 3-bet? Then I folded out even more possible Aces and Kings? Is this a valid train of thought/concern?
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Old 05-30-2014, 03:27 PM   #9
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Re: $2/$5 NL: AKo Facing a 4-bet

why did you include AKs in your stoving for your range? you have AKo, which will lower your equity.
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Old 05-30-2014, 03:30 PM   #10
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Cold 4bets are usually really strong and I think the fact that he's a young Asian doesn't mean much. I feel like a lot of young kids just nit it up a lot or play really passively by calling a lot and won't cold 4bet light almost ever. Even if he I'd bluffing once in a long while, he's not doing it enough for you to defend AK

Also him folding to your 4bet could easily be JJ, QQ, AK. I dont necessarily think that means he's bluffing you
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Old 05-30-2014, 04:19 PM   #11
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Re: $2/$5 NL: AKo Facing a 4-bet

Your math is wrong, its 440 to win 585.
Where are you getting 650 from


You need about 43% equity if he always calls.
However since he will fold some % of the time i still think this is a +ev spot to shove.

Lets assume he always calls with QQ+ AK
You have about 38% equity vs that range (off the top of my head)
So your return is .38*1085 = $412

Less the cost of your shove $412- $440 = -$28
So if he calls 100% you lose -$28

However, if he folds 100% you win $210 immediately.

So
210:28
7.5:1

You only need him to fold 1 out of 8.5 times or 11.8% or more of his 4betting range in order to be profitable

Last edited by HappyLuckBox; 05-30-2014 at 04:27 PM.
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Old 05-30-2014, 05:29 PM   #12
beauvanlaanen
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I flat the 4 bet in position, getting better than 3-1.
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Old 05-30-2014, 08:06 PM   #13
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Re: $2/$5 NL: AKo Facing a 4-bet

100bb effective, you can get AK in pre against the range you described even if it's not properly weighted. Results aside WP.
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Old 05-30-2014, 08:41 PM   #14
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I really don't like getting in 100bb on preflop with AK against an unknown opponent, it just seems bad.
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Old 05-31-2014, 04:06 AM   #15
Olaff
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Re: $2/$5 NL: AKo Facing a 4-bet

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
Your math is wrong, its 440 to win 585.
Where are you getting 650 from


You need about 43% equity if he always calls.
However since he will fold some % of the time i still think this is a +ev spot to shove.

Lets assume he always calls with QQ+ AK
You have about 38% equity vs that range (off the top of my head)
So your return is .38*1085 = $412

Less the cost of your shove $412- $440 = -$28
So if he calls 100% you lose -$28

However, if he folds 100% you win $210 immediately.

So
210:28
7.5:1

You only need him to fold 1 out of 8.5 times or 11.8% or more of his 4betting range in order to be profitable
This guy is a donk and actually had TT and considered folding before calling my shove. So in this particular case I had FE. But the problem is that vs an average $2/$5 player (probably 95%)... they don't have a 4-bet fold range. Nada zilch, non-existent. So no FE.
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Old 05-31-2014, 04:08 AM   #16
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Re: $2/$5 NL: AKo Facing a 4-bet

Quote:
Originally Posted by scelsi View Post
100bb effective, you can get AK in pre against the range you described even if it's not properly weighted. Results aside WP.
What do you mean by properly weighted?
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