$500 eff. My image: young TAG. Villain: young Asian donk.

My history with villain. He 3-bet my preflop raise before and folded to my 4-bet. So I know he 3-bets less than AA/KK. Overall my impression of the guy is a fish. He doesn't know what he's doing.

Fairly wide opener opens to $20 in MP, I look down at AKo in HJ and 3-bet to $60, V in SB 4-bets to $125.

There's now $5+$20+$60+$125 = $210 in the pot. If I shove then I'm getting 650:440 = 1.48:1 and need 40% equity. I estimate V's 3-bet range to be AQ+/JJ+ or wider.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.289% 37.61% 11.68% 401838924 124799748.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 50.711% 39.03% 11.68% 417039276 124799748.00 { AKs, AKo }


According to stoving my estimate of his range, I'm getting 50%.

Would you shove or fold and why?

Beware the small 4 bet.

Just out of curiosity, what was the 3! sizing?

You mean when he 3-bet-folded? Don't remember

I'm folding to the cold 4bet. You're going to be way behind here most of the time. I would be really surprised if villain even had QQ here.

Take out the combos of AQ and Ak off and you will have a much more accurate range.

Not enough info.

The 3 bets. Were they IP vs a weak position? And what sizing?

Small 4 bets OOP are quite a bit different from 3 bets IP tif that is what they were.

Young Asian counterbalances this all a bit.

Looks like he's crying for a call or a 5 bet w/such a small 4 bet....

Fold.

One thing on my mind is... The original raiser...... if there's Ax or Kx in his range and there are definitely are... if I have AK and I fold him out with my 3-bet... then I folded out a good portion of my outs, no? And then when I shove I have fewer outs cause OR probably had them. Now what if there's a raise and several callers that I folded out with a 3-bet? Then I folded out even more possible Aces and Kings? Is this a valid train of thought/concern?

why did you include AKs in your stoving for your range? you have AKo, which will lower your equity.

Cold 4bets are usually really strong and I think the fact that he's a young Asian doesn't mean much. I feel like a lot of young kids just nit it up a lot or play really passively by calling a lot and won't cold 4bet light almost ever. Even if he I'd bluffing once in a long while, he's not doing it enough for you to defend AK

Also him folding to your 4bet could easily be JJ, QQ, AK. I dont necessarily think that means he's bluffing you

Your math is wrong, its 440 to win 585.
Where are you getting 650 from


You need about 43% equity if he always calls.
However since he will fold some % of the time i still think this is a +ev spot to shove.

Lets assume he always calls with QQ+ AK
You have about 38% equity vs that range (off the top of my head)
So your return is .38*1085 = $412

Less the cost of your shove $412- $440 = -$28
So if he calls 100% you lose -$28

However, if he folds 100% you win $210 immediately.

So
210:28
7.5:1

You only need him to fold 1 out of 8.5 times or 11.8% or more of his 4betting range in order to be profitable

I flat the 4 bet in position, getting better than 3-1.

100bb effective, you can get AK in pre against the range you described even if it's not properly weighted. Results aside WP.

I really don't like getting in 100bb on preflop with AK against an unknown opponent, it just seems bad.

This guy is a donk and actually had TT and considered folding before calling my shove. So in this particular case I had FE. But the problem is that vs an average $2/$5 player (probably 95%)... they don't have a 4-bet fold range. Nada zilch, non-existent. So no FE.

What do you mean by properly weighted?