for some reason I think he has JhJx a ton, and he's probably not folding.

results?

Your preflop/flop plan make no sense against described villain. If you think his 3!ing range is wider than AK/QQ, and he will play timid with anything less than KK+, then 4! pre. No sense in flatting so that he can play perfectly postflop (pounding flops without a A/K and x/f'ing flops that do have one).

Floating the flop pot bet seems pretty ambitious because, again, the best scare cards to bluff are the ones that actually hit our hand. Obviously you were the one playing at the table with him, but your reads seem open to interpretation, and I'm not confident he's not just gonna chase his losses with QQ+ just because a flush came.

Cliffs: If you think you can bluff this guy, a preflop 4! is your best opportunity. You're not turning a profit by redlining with AKo against a range of premiums, regardless of positions.

And open larger in early position, not smaller. OOP you want to shorten SPR and leverage your preflop range advantage as much as possible to limit villains' opportunity to leverage their positional advantage postflop.

Also, you hold a high RIO hand (which you often do when you open UTG), so you want to give other players as poor of a price as possible.

It's when you're in later position that you can open smaller and not give a **** whether the other players call or fold because they're getting boned no matter what.

He tank folded a set of Ts face up.

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I think his 3! range is TT+/AK (maybe KQ but probably not). He's maybe folding TT to a 4! and shoving everything else (not sure if he folds AK, maybe). If he's not folding AK then he is playing perfectly against our 4! and we lose the chance to play in position against scared money with a defined range. That was my thought at least.

I hear you on the bigger opens from UTG. That certainly is what prevailing wisdom suggests. I'm just trying small UTG opens to see how it goes


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He's playing scared money, and yet he is 5b shoving JJ and AK in UTG vs BB of an 8-handed game? That does not compute, but if this is really, truly the case, then this feels like a, "Apparently you know your opponent better than we do" sort of spot.

You have way too much equity to shove. When you bluff, generally you want villain to have plenty of 1 pair hands or high card hands in his range that beat you that he will generally fold. Villain has no 1 pair hands that beat you. Trying to fold out a range composed entirely of sets and third to nut flush is pretty bad IMO.

This is my biggest concern with the line as played. I wonder how often this type of line will be effective vs. a total random. I am glad it worked out for OP, but I would be cautious to take this line without a very specific read on the villain.

Actually, it's extremely well played and creative.

You think villain's range is entirely sets and flushes? I couldn't disagree more.

Are you actually saying villain never has the 4 combos of AK no-flush? And how often do you think villain checks the river with the nut Kh flush? Are you putting all nut combos of AxKh and KhKx in his range after he checks? I would discount those significantly.

OP played this extremely well and rightly ranged villain to be heavily weighted to the 4 combos of AK with no flush, 3 combos of TT, and 1 combo of AA. I think hands like QhQx / JhJx are unlikely given the turn bet; if villain does have those hands, he often will station down... but at least I gave OP credit for turning even those types of hands into bluff catchers, and I do think we get a fold some % of the time. And like I said above, Kh has to be discounted significantly given the river check.

Checking behind on this river and losing would be both understandable and uncreative, but OP thought outside the box of standard ABC auto-pilot play ("oh noes / scary board / I have showdown value / I check") and made a +EV bluff.

OP needs villain to fold something like 43% of the time. I'm sure he does. I do believe he often folds the 3 combos of TT and almost always folds the 4 combos of AK with no Kh. That's 7 combos. Even if he calls with 9 others, it's +EV. And I really don't think he has 9 combos to call with... I'd guess it's possible villain folds 60%+ here. What % do you think he folds?

In game, I would expect a lot of people calling here with TT approaching what I think is like 50% of the time, maybe more. But that's at least partially due to me having a lag image. I mean from V's perspective he's already shuffled in close to half his stack so he's getting well over 2 to 1 on his money.

I think the tank fold makes it clear that he's not folding TT much more than 65-70% of the time, maybe less.

FWIW, I'm calling with all of these hands after putting in so much of my stack, except AK. Most decent players know by now that bluffing 4flush boards is usually profitable. While OP shouldn't have all that many bluffs in his range here, he also can't be showing up with the Kh or Qh all that often and usually people check behind with Jh.

I'm discounting AK a bit. I think the 3x OOP pre, flop sizing, and turn are much more consistent with JJ+ from rec players (who tend to either bomb pre or flat with AK, bomb flop or check). And AK gets a little bit more show downish after hitting but also bringing in the flush.

Furthermore, if we can get 4 combos of AK to fold 100% of the time, that only counts as 2 when doing the bluff EV calculations (we're only winning half the pot).

Admittedly, the weak tight image of villain helps a lot.

Maybe not. What do you think this type of villain does with JJ and AK? I'm not sure how,to continue if he flats and checks flop.

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you got incredibly lucky to hit running hearts. You had no business in the hand after the flop yet you some how won.

You are burning money 90% of the time here imo but well played to shove the river.

So you guys are shipping a Jh for value in this spot?

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Nice post. And yes, you're right about AK and how the benefit of bluffing villain off a chop is less than the benefit of bluffing him off a better hand. I thought about that but kind of ignored it because I still think the bluff is +EV, but it's good to note that it does make a difference, and if someone feels like doing out the complete math, it'd be interesting to see.

If hero has JhJx I think I'd look at the entirety of the hand differently because of how it would alter villains range.

But to answer your question, would not default to shipping for value with J Sometimes, yes ; other times, no.

It's a great question.

When we discuss the bluff, we should discuss value. That said, this isn't just a static question about calling ranges, but it's also a question about bet sizing. I would bet the Qh/Jh for value, but I wouldn't shove with it - I'd go with much smaller sizing, maybe 1/2 pot, maybe just 125-150, to manipulate villain's calling range to get him to snap with TT, AA, maybe some AK, etc. And I'm never worried about a c/r bluff shove.

You definitely have to value bet the Qh/Jh - the variable to discuss is the sizing.

However, I think your bluff shove is great because I think villain will fold.

Do people who don't like the bluff shove think that hero should value shove with Qh/Jh because you think villain will call?

Honestly, in this spot I prefer a $165 bluff over a ship. It's not going to work as often, but it has to work much much less often for it to be profitable.

Anyway, I also agree with another poster. We shouldn't really be calling flop in the first place. 100BBs is not enough to float in a 3bet pot, especially without a heart for some flush equity, unless we think V is 3betting us extremely light (stuff like 55 and A4s).

Edit: actually I change my mind, I'm just not really giving V many TT hands in his range. There's only one combo of AA and it is more likely to call than any other non flush. So basically i feel like when I'm betting here I'm just hoping villain has AK without a heart and I'm blocking the chop.

Agree 100% that sizing is the crux here.

I am ok with ~$155-$190 with the Qh/Jh expecting to get called by sets and maybe the occasional non-believing AxKx

this doesn't make any sense. You don't want to build a pot OOP but you would rather make a sweetener 3x raise and get 8 callers?

yeah raise bigger pre especially from UTG. Your goal should bet getting it to no more than heads up, not a big multiway pot. Good players will view that raise as a small sc or pp and will 3bet the **** out of it.

as played I would rather r/f the flop.

I often raise small pre OOP with my premiums, but it's so I can 4bet a squeeze. Especially 100BBs deep, this can be extremely profitable.

I'm not ecstatic about 4bet jamming with AK unless there was some kind of dynamic/sLAG raising every hand and I would rather just raise my premiums rather than chancing a 6way pot OOP with AA.

I'm ecstatic about jamming with AK when there's a ton of dead money in the pot, and I have plenty of fold equity.

I don't get so freaked out by 6way pots with AA. I see a lot of value in it. Even just to set mine we've already got 5 to 1 on our money. And it's a strong hand regardless on most flops. It's like flopping bottom two from our BB with 37 on a K37 board when everybody limped pre. Are we disappointed when that happens? Actually, in some ways it's better than bottom two pair. More redraws with AA against a turned two pair hand, and occasionally their second pair gives us a set.

in your live games, are you really getting 8 callers with $15 and 1 caller with $20? if it's going to be a family pot, oh well... Friday afternoon rec players aren't calling for $15 and folding for $20. In fact, they probably see more IO from a bigger raise and are more likely t come along...

yes in my live 2/5 1K max game $15 UTG raises are getting at least 5 callers.

I would raise 25/30 from UTG.