Villain has been in most pots so far, has been aggressive, seen him open to 35 and showdown 65o. He has donk lead into me once after limp/calling on a 445 two tone flop.

Haven't been at the table too long, I'm playing about $650, villain has $500-550ish.

Hero is dealt AhAd
Villain calls $5, Hero raises to $25, folds around to BB who calls, and villain calls.

Flop ($71 after rake/bb) QhTd3d
BB checks, Villain bets $40, Hero calls $40, BB folds

Turn ($151) 8c
Villain checks after about 30 seconds, Hero bets $75, Villain calls $75

River ($301) 5s
Villain tanks again and checks, Hero bets $210

I keep doing this thing where I try to make my range appear polarized. I'm mostly putting villain on a marginal one pair hands (Q or T), and draws, both weak and strong. Am I better off making a smaller river bet than trying to make people think I missed a draw and pay off a big bet?

Seems fine, I'm betting $50 on the turn. If you don't have the Ad, I'd raise the flop. River can probably be closer to pot, or much smaller, rather bet $130 or $300, $210 seems like it has similar FE to $300 so might as well make 50% more when called.

I'd like a larger turn bet to protect against that board.

Grunch.

Hmm... I might raise the flop here, like $150ish. Given that he has donked into you already in this session, I think that indicated that he may have a rather wide donking range that contains a lot of draws/and one pair hands as you suggest. A lot of those hands can can/will call you if you raise. We also don't really like most the deck OTT on this board. Any 8 or higher plus diamonds won't be pretty, although we do have the Ad which is good to fall back on in we do decide to flat here. I would only lead towards flatting if I thought Villain was leading with a ton of air and bluffs that he would continue to fire with OTT.

As played, I think I would tweak my sizing a bit. The turn could be bigger to charge draws ($110ish), and the river could be smaller to induce calls from Qx/Tx. Although I don't hate the "polarizing your range" thing either although I would kinda prefer to call it betting for fat value when our opponent's calling range is inelasctic, or rather if he's got Q9 he's just going to call almost any bet regardless of the size. Where as some players wouldn't dare call a bet over $200 with the hand, but would snap call $110.

V's previous donk was for equity protection and if that's the only read, that's all I can assume here. I agree with Q's and T's in his range.

I thought about betting slightly bigger on turn (~$100), but that gives us a ~$350 pot on the river and we cant really bet/fold a reasonable size there. I'm okay with $75 on the turn.

River, I often make this same mistake of trying to "appear bluffy" but I think it is FPS and never really works. I'd continue with the read that he has a marginal pair and target accordingly. Bet/fold $100-150 on the river imo.

Prefer raise flop.

As played, bet turn bigger and shove the river.

I don't really like raising the flop and giving him an opportunity to 3bet his good draws and strong made hands. Since I have the Ad, I'm not super excited about getting all in on the flop, he will either have me crushed or have good equity. I also don't want to give him a reason to fold his one pair hands. I think I can make good decisions on future streets in position against him.

If I'm value targeting a weak queen or ten, I should probably be betting somewhere around $100-150. There's definitely an argument for having a more transparent bet sizing against opponents who aren't going to interpret or use that information well.

Yeah, the thing is that I would probably be willing to GII OTF against the described player with AA here. What can he have that beats us? Only 33 and QT? Does he raise with those hands some time? His range probably contains draws as well that I predict he would call a raise with. He may also call with Qx thinking you are FOS. IMO the only hand that we "lose value" against by raising are Tx and airish/low pair type hands. He may even check fold those hands OTT anyway.

While he won't have too many hands that beat me, won't him not having any Axdd hands make him getting it in more weighted toward the value part?

Early in a session without good reads it's going to be very hard to figure out if he's going to put in 4 bets with a hand worse than AA here, I think it's far more likely he can barrel through with worse though and I'm actually a bit surprised he didn't fire the turn.

I think I got a bit lazy counting the pot on the turn as I think I clearly should've bet 85-95 here.

While us holding the Ad does remove combo's of flush draws that he can show up with... from what I heard so far it sounds like this guy probably plays too many hands and calls too wide. I would expect he could show up with all kinds of 96dd/K7dd and other "sooted" hands that would call a raise OTF.

Also, the value part of his range is still most likely behind your hand currently and would potentially call a raise. And while he may barrel off on some runout's with Qx/Tx/Air, this board can get scary for one pair very quickly if we just flat. If he will put the money in now with Qx then we can avoid a diamond falling OTT and potentially killing our action.

Results?

Those are some good points. Something I considered. He ended up folding to the river bet.

Bet/fold $100 on the turn and then the river's an easy jam. Not sure what you mean by polarizing with a standard 2/3 pot bet though.

Raise flop and call it off if he shoves. Turn is way too small. River is a jam after you bet more on the turn.

Raise flop or make bigger sizings. Drawy board texture. I'm only worried about 3s and Q10. Makes it a raise unless he is a maniac and loves to barrell off.

Against a player like you described, I'm raising to get it in on the flop. Would be different if he was a nit but he sounds like a maniac who likes throwing money about.

Did you call, fold, or raise to the donk bet on the 445 flop?

I'd raise here as his donking range is likely weak, but contains lots of hands that will call off at least one more street including lots of combos of combo draws or pair + lots of back door equity.

Turn sizing is meh. We can go bigger for value here.

River is too big. What do you expect him to call you with in general? And what do you expect him to call you with with that sizing?

As played, I'd have bet the river for $125 or so.
If we made the turn $110, I might go $150 on the river.
If we raise the flop to $110, bet the turn for $180, and jam the river.

The last option seems best in a vacuum if the run out isn't atrocious. Let's do that.