About two hours into the session, though both villains have been at the table for roughly one hour.

Hero has been mostly card dead and lost a medium pot earlier. 20's guy with some minor history vs. V1 that he may or may not remember and no history vs. V2.

V1 is a mid/late 30's WG bad rec/losing player. He stacked me once a year ago limp/calling 72s UTG and flopping trips when I had AA. His play is generally erratic and random with hands he'll choose to limp or raise. Post flop is the same way, sometimes he will raise draws, other times call them. I haven't played against him in a few months but generally classify him as loose/bad.

V2 is a MAEG (European?) that's VPIP'd some pots and gotten out on the flop or turn with nothing going to showdown. Seems like a rec and likely losing player.

OTTH

Effective Stacks: $475

V1 limps $5 UTG+2
V2 completes $5 from SB
Hero raises AA to $30
V1 calls $30
V2 calls $30

Seems standard thus far. Perhaps could have gone $35 on the raise but that's nitpicking. I think V1 would raise TT+, AQ+. 88-99 could go either way. So limp/call ranges should be roughly 22-99, SC's, SG+1's, suited and offsuit broadways and suited Aces.

Flop ($85): J 9 4

V2 checks
Hero bets $50
V1 calls $50
V2 calls $50

We've got a pretty good flop for our hand and a nice SPR of ~5x for AA. My goal will be to bet/bet/shove. I chose a moderate sizing so that we can get called by a variety of hands on the flop like Jx, 9x, QT, T8, KQ, random PP's and maybe hands like ATs, KTs etc. with BDFD's.

Turn ($235): 3

V2 checks
Hero bets $135
V1 raises to $300
V2 folds
Hero ... ?

Checking the turn seems bad. Even though we got called on a somewhat dry flop by two players, I think there is enough hands out there fishing for equity that the turn is a standard bet. I chose a moderate size to give V1 a chance to shove a draw. There are quite a few JX hands that just picked up a flush draw as well as QT and T8.

Obviously we never like to get raised in a spot like this. Villain certainly has slow played 44's and J9's in his range. I don't think he would limp 99 or JJ pre but I suppose it's possible. Given how shallow we started the hand it doesn't make sense to take a street off 3-way (IMO), and we're never x/f the turn but I'm willing to listen to a devil's advocate argument.

Everything looks fine here. Given your description and effective < 100BB I just move in on turn. There are villains I can fold this too, a bad erratic losing reg isn't one of them. How happy I am about it depends on how wide he can be and if he has any outright bluffs in his range.

Against a tight villain who generally has a set and at worst is making a move with a combo draw or two pair then folding is right despite the pot odds.

Never ever ever believing he stacked. you with 72 "a year ago". Bro just shut up. When will we ever address that people set up hands the way that they want answered lol come on....

I would make a bigger flop bet, and try to take it down there.This is a dry flop dont give them odds to beat , you didnt and are unlikely to improve from toppest pair. By the time it gets to v2, he needs to call 50 into into a nearly 250 pot. With implied odds higher, given you are repping an over pair. Anyone with a piece will call the flop...

Villain itt ldo.

Yeah that be the ******ed answer

It's going to be pretty hard to give him a range that we can fold against if we think that he will raise at least a few of his flush draws.

We have $260 left and if we assume that he will never fold (decent assumption) we need to have ~26% equity.

Up against my initial range of:
44, 99, JJ, J9s, J9o, JThh, QJhh, KJhh, AJhh, QThh, T8hh, T9hh, and 98hh we are 28.8%. So that seems like a pretty reasonable call.

Against a slightly tighter range of (and since you said he likely won't limp JJ)
99, 44, J9s, J9o, AJhh, Kjhh, QJhh, QThh, T8hh we are 26.7%. Mostly a break even call, but I'd take it since #lolvariance and our upside is bigger than our downside in absolute terms.

This is also without any other tooling out in his range where he somehow decides that AJo is good here, or limp/called with QQ+ and now is getting frisky since the board is getting a bit scarier.

If we think that he has even just a little bit of tooling out in his range, then we can't fold.
Against:
99, 44, AJhh, and even 2 combos of QQ, we are 25.3%. And while that is a slightly losing call, if he has any QQ here, then he likely has some other combo draws.

In short, I'm not folding.

What do you mean 'nearly' $250? The pot will be $185 if V1 calls and then V2 has to act, but that's even if V2 has something to call with, and V1 calls ahead.

Without reads to the contrary, this sizing is a possible a touch big, not the opposite way around.

Well played, now shove.

How much did villain have behind after the raise? $100?

with 260 behind and a raise that looks like he's trying to fold you out I don't mind calling him off.

why would we wanna take it down just because someone may have flopped a piece of a dry flop?

Not folding and oop to him I can't see anything but sticking it in here.

We won't call turn - X/f river and call lead river accomplishes nothing. Only other possibility is call - X river and he X back some marginal showdown value that we regret leaving money behind.

+1

Something like that, slightly more than me. He bought in for $800 and within 30-45 minutes was down to $500.

If you are alluding to what I think you are, yes it was slightly suspicious that he left a trivial amount behind if I were to just call which I interpreted as possibly strong/nutted but inconclusive if it was an intentional play or not.

Obvious shove is obvious

This is your primer. Do not waiver.

In other words, the fundamental exploit here is that you deem your opponent capable of frequently showing down one pair IP as a 3 street caller on boards favorable for AA. So, when he allows you the opportunity to commit him to showdown (all-in ldo) on any earlier street, then your fundamental plan has been expedited. If you're genuinely concerned that his raise on a 3h has narrowed him to the point where you have a -ev shove, then you've likely made a mistake at some point prior, whether it be your estimation of his flop calling range or your likelihood to get 3 streets in the first place.

If none of this is enough to warrant a shove, and you need to get in a losing rec players head, find what he splits with that you beat, get past the uh-oh he called flop raised turn bull****... well, then you can take solace in the fact it isn't always a turned set or J9, and more along the lines of QJhh that is raising bc 'me doesn't know what else to do with all this equity, raise?' OR 'I'm never folding KJ so I think I can raise here and check river if he calls instead of having to call again if he shoves, yeah, 300!' OR further down the food chain 'I can't let AK or his flush draw improve, I gotta raise' OR 'my KK limp-call has him dead! Dealer I raise!'

stufffff

Villain has <$100 left. Obv shove. Well played.

Results

Baluga wins again

Yes and yes. Wish I could have gotten in b4 results but leaving a small but measurable amount behind is a very reliable tell of huge strength. You are correct though that sometimes people choose arbitrary amounts and don't really realize what they are doing.

Also, turn raises in general baluga, etc etc. It's close but if I were playing my A game I think I would fold.

It's easy to say "well he picked up x and x ott" but remember that people call too much they don't aggro too much and a turn raise is pretty aggro. I'd expect many of the combos to continue calling, considering how few there are to start with he really has 44/99 alot imo.

That said, he did limp utg. Sometimes people play KK/QQ this way and it would be a shame to fold in that scenario. I think it's close and I think I would definitely fold KK.

him raising to 300 with 100 left changes it a little bit. I thought you were the one with 475 eff. It would help in the future to list stack sizes on all villain rather than just list an eff stack size in a multi way hand (in a perfect world )

When someone raises to 300 and leaves only 100 behind he's pretty strong, combined with the baluga theorem = a fold (in before "your being results oriented")