When button plays this way his range is FOS designed to look strong (with a small chance of all of the nuts). I doubt he is calling anything if we lead. So I check. And probably just call tbh.

A6s is barely ahead of KQ/KJ/QJ in terms of hot-cold equity, and those hands have much better playability than A6s. Moreover, a $15 raise can also be indicative of hands like AJ/AT/A9s/66-99. All those hands dominate A6s.

Moreover, A6s is almost never winning a big pot against any of those hands mentioned above. Overflush potential is almost nonexistent against a $15 MP raise from a loose-passive because loose passive players typically do not open-raise SCs/SGs. You might overflush the occasional KQhh/KJhh/QJhh/JThh, but those 4 combos are a tiny percentage of the loose-passive MP raiser's range.

No idea why we'd be thinking about JJ + against a straightforward player who flats from the button.

He could have worse flushes, pocket pairs, wtfmisplayed 10x, random air etc. I actually do think he could have a ten since he would often stab with air once the flop is checked to him.

I hate the PF call, should be a fold, maybe a 3-bet with the right table image since we have horrible reverse implied odds on A-high boards. Other players described as TAG/ loose-passive or whatever, you 3b and they will often 4-bet or fold the aces which beat you, you'll probably be going to the flop HU which misses him 65% of the time.

Furthermore, if we are for whatever reason going to play this, we should be betting that flop, we have a fairly wide range to flat from the CO and as a result of our image should get called by worse flush draws, can get better hands to fold ( pocket pairs / an 8), and we protect our equity. In other words, we achieve all of the objectives of betting. Our flop bet range is a myriad of draws , any ten, 88 so we are balanced to a certain extent.

Turn call is standard, but I don't think we have great implieds. If the 9h or Jh comes I feel comfortable in saying we have zero implied against a competent V with 10x if he did play it that way , since every conceivable draw got there.

What's Vs river value betting range against our river range assuming some level of competence ? Flushes ( unlikely, we block a lot and things such as KQs likely 3-bet pre ), full houses, 79 if he's special. I'm not including 10x because I don't know what he expects to get called by given how strong our range is on the turn and I don't think he gets here with that. As such, he's actually somewhat polarised, and against most of his river value range we almost effectively have a bluff catcher, and as such i would check/call or preferably bet/fold river if you think he'll pay off with a ten/79/worse flush, he's almost bluffcatching if he does though. All streets are misplayed, however in my opinion

Please ignore those that state you should bomb the river, that's ridiculous since our range is so strong and he only ever calls with 10x ( v.rarely, once we call the turn raise we pretty much either have a FD, SD if we're incompetent, 10x ourselves, which is soooo unlikely from combinatorics) , full houses, worse flushes which we block hugely and which there are few combos of.

Get called by what ?

If you were to lead $140ish on river in Hero's spot and got raised all in what do you put him on???

Im getting the impression you're saying you shouldnt b/f...but straights and trips will almost always just flat as they should...worried about full house and flush plus basically never getting called by worse.

Let me ask you this. Will you raise the nut flush OTR on a paired board? BTW, I will - not always but not seldom either.

How so?

How is it a fold then?

Did you read my long comment Olaff? This ^ is almost entirely dependent on V ranges and tendencies.

Grunch:

Tried to skim really fast to see if reads on the button were presented, but it didn't look like it in the first 1.5 pages or so.

Without knowing much about him it's hard to really give good advice. Is he young/old, aggressive, passive? Do we think he's capable of raising a draw here? Would he have raised his draw IP on the flop?

We needed at least 4.2:1 on the turn to be getting correct odds to call a raise (and that's assuming that we're not drawing stone dead which is possible, but not unlikely). We only need to get one more bet out of him on the river, but do we think that we are going to get that on the river OOP from him, on a paired flushed out board? And really, we should be looking to try and get more to make up for all the times that we pay of a better hand. So, at least $100+ more needs to go into the pot on the river.

I'd plan to either bet/fold for $125 - $140 on the river or bet/call $50 or so. If we think that he can raise worse (straights, strong trips) then bet/call really small might be better as we might induce but since most low stakes players can't do this I'd like to bet/fold for $130.

This IMO.

You have a pair of sixes on the turn and a flush draw. With a turn raise, your 6 is no good and likely your ace is not an out either (this is debatable). You have a 20% chance to hit your flush and with a paired board, it might not be good. Folding when the pot is giving you 4.5 to 1 is close (actually, quite close) but it is still a fold. If you want to ride some variance, I suppose you could call, but what I'm saying is that there is no value in calling.

That's 4.5 in just direct odds, there's also implied odds. Therefore, I think it's a call and it's not even close.

Are you saying that's LAG? Just wondering what's your distinction between TAG and LAG and particularly as it relates to calling or folding pre here?

It's more just BAD than LAG or TAG really.

Calling 3% of the effective stacks in position, in a potential multi way pot with decent implied odds is bad?

Implied odds aka about a 7 % chance of making the nut flush and praying someone pays you off. Reverse implied odds aka being dominated on A-high flops a ton of the time. Do the maths, you do not hit nearly enough and we lose far too much chasing draws for this to be a profitable call.

This sounds very nitty to me. Do you only play small to medium pocket pairs in position to set mine only?

What about the concept of calling or raising(villain dependent) , to out play our opponents post flop with our positional advantage?

lolwhat It's not remotely nitty, it's basic maths and basic EV calculations, you have a -EV playing A6s vs a 3X MP open from a loose-passive, if you are calling purely speculative hands which have horrible reverse implieds and actually , for a number of reasons, not that great implieds, that is nothing more than a leak.

Yes, that is most of the value of those hands, unless I can cohesively rep something else with good enough FE, how or why this is pertinent to my overall game or reasoning for this decision I do not know. As I said on my long post on page 2 we should be usually folding or occasionally 3-betting A6s in this spot.