Quote:
Originally Posted by D_Lonnigan
Table perceives me as fairly tight but not a super nit. Villain is an unknown unfortunately. I only played 2 orbits with him and nothing out of the ordinary was shown.
I understand the overall play was terrible. I get it. But like I said, I can rep a variety of Kx hands, straight and flush draws, 2 pair and sets. It's not like my range is capped here.
One of my questions is what do we do on the river. His range consists of Kx hands and flush draws. I guess maybe straight draws would continue on the turn if they picked up a heart draw. My thought was, what can he call with? If he has the straight, he is going to bet the river as I would never bet a K on that river card so he only gets value by betting. So that leaves him with Kx hands. Can I get Kx hands to fold was the question in my head and does my range include straights on the river that can bet for value. I thought it did.
I gave villain this range OTR. It consists of a variety of flushes, straights, straight draws, Kx, 2p, and sets. There are 120/990 combos:
77-66,AKs,K2s+,T8s+,98s,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,AhQh,AhJh, QhJh,AhTh,QhTh,JhTh,Ah9h,Qh9h,Jh9h,Ah8h,Qh8h,Jh8h, Ah7h,Qh7h,Jh7h,Th7h,9h7h,Ah6h,Qh6h,Th6h,9h6h,Ah5h, Qh5h,9h5h,8h5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,AKo,K9o+
Of the 120 combos, the composition is
Kx: 51 combos
2p: 21 combos
set: 6 combos
straight: 14 combos
flush: 19 combos
straight flush: 8 combos
nothing: 1 combo (T9)
So he has 42.5% one-pair KX hands, 17.5% 2-pair, 5% sets, 11.67% straights, 15.83% flushes, and 6.66% straight flushes.
He has 48 combos of sets or better and 72 combos 2p/KX, for a breakdown of 40%/60% strong/weak hands on this board, and possibly it's even worse than that for V as sets should not really be considered strong on this board.
So he has 34.16% straights/flushes/straight-flushes. If we expect him to fold anything worse (maybe sets, maybe not) then it's an easy bluff. If we expect him to get sticky with sets and 2 pair, now he's calling maybe 57.5% of the time--which is still fine with our sizing.
There's only a problem if he gets sticky with KX. So...I think you should bet the river if you think villain is sane and won't call with just a K. It really comes down to that. If he's a lunatic calling station who doesn't realize what a terrible board this is for KTo, give it up. But against sane opponents I'm firing the river.
I wouldn't assume he doesn't have straights in his range though just because he checked. Lots of villains will see the heart and just check their straights.
Quote:
Originally Posted by D_Lonnigan
Another question I have is on the river when we brick do we fire anyway? We obv can't win with 10 high. Or do we just give up and check?
But you did brick the river. Do you mean what if it's a meaningless card like the 2
? Well now the previous ranges are kind of flipped. I'm not going to recount the combos as they change with the river card but now he's going to fold all his straight and flush draws (which he has slightly more now since the third heart removes some of the draws) and possibly weak KX and call everything else Since there are so many draws on this board I'd bluff the river anyway. The good thing about this situation is you can bluff much less if the villain is straightforward. Betting $175 might be enough to get him to fold his busted draws as it looks like a thin value bet from something like KQ. And in that case it's totally fine if the draws are only 25-30% of his range, as with this sizing we only need him to fold 22% of the time. And he may even fold some weak TP hands.
Alternatively you could overbet the pot on a blank and possibly get him to fold everything weaker than (and maybe including) TPTK, which is the great majority of his range.