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Old 10-26-2018, 12:15 AM   #1
ralphykid67
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2/5 - Missed draw. Time to bluff?

Hero opens 20 UTG1 with AJhh. We're about $600 effective with villain.
3 calls behind.

Flop KsKhTh - Pot $80

BB checks
Hero checks
MP checks
Button bets $75

Hero calls. Rest fold.

Turn 6s - Pot $230

Hero check
Villain check

River 9d - Pot $230

Hero?

Button/Vil is a bad loose player. Plays too many hands, chases often, capable of aggression, makes bad bluffs occasionally. I've played with him many times and know him to be a big losing player.

I decided to check the flop being multiway and OOP vs a few players. I wanna have some check calls and don't want to go blasting into ranges that contain a lot of Kx. As played I think calling this PSB seems like best option OTF. His turn check back was pretty weak on this wet board so I'm wondering if I should blast this river for $200 or just give up. This guy is kind of a station but can he call me with AT, QT for example? Probably not. I have some minimal showdown value vs lower hearts while all combos of QJ just got there.

Thanks
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Old 10-26-2018, 12:20 AM   #2
devnull2
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Re: 2/5 - Missed draw. Time to bluff?

I think this is a check/fold. Nearly all Ks are betting this flop, especially as a PF raiser. Against nearly all flush draws, we are probably ahead anyway. The only hands that might fold are hands with a T. I don't like it. Check/fold.
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Old 10-26-2018, 12:29 AM   #3
ChrisV
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Re: 2/5 - Missed draw. Time to bluff?

I feel like you're probably getting looked up by a T. Check/calling flop and blasting river on a board like this is claiming to have flopped a full or quads, basically, you're repping very thin. The corollary is that this is probably a nice spot to make a bet like that with JJ or QQ.
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Old 10-26-2018, 03:20 AM   #4
exoendo
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Re: 2/5 - Missed draw. Time to bluff?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ralphykid67 View Post
Hero opens 20 UTG1 with AJhh. We're about $600 effective with villain.
3 calls behind.

Flop KsKhTh - Pot $80

BB checks
Hero checks
MP checks
Button bets $75

Hero calls. Rest fold.

Turn 6s - Pot $230

Hero check
Villain check

River 9d - Pot $230

Hero?

Button/Vil is a bad loose player. Plays too many hands, chases often, capable of aggression, makes bad bluffs occasionally. I've played with him many times and know him to be a big losing player.

I decided to check the flop being multiway and OOP vs a few players. I wanna have some check calls and don't want to go blasting into ranges that contain a lot of Kx. As played I think calling this PSB seems like best option OTF. His turn check back was pretty weak on this wet board so I'm wondering if I should blast this river for $200 or just give up. This guy is kind of a station but can he call me with AT, QT for example? Probably not. I have some minimal showdown value vs lower hearts while all combos of QJ just got there.

Thanks
I get wanting to have some check calls on this flop but I think AJhh is way too strong here, you just have so much equity. i mean hell you are drawing live vs. quads lol

If you are going to want to check/call some nut flush draws I think you are better off doing it with hands like a5hh, a3hh etc because that will allow villain to have more QJ, j9, etc

As far as river goes.... i don't like blocking heart combos here. we would prefer for villain to have more of these bricked flush draws so he can fold. I'm kinda meh on the river lead, I might do it myself sometimes but I don't think it's a slam dunk spot.
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Old 10-26-2018, 08:56 AM   #5
samo
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Re: 2/5 - Missed draw. Time to bluff?

With a history on the opponent, have to rely on how stationy he is or isn't. Loads of TX in his pf calling range, mid/smaller pps as well. I doubt he can fold TX, but maybe smaller pps?

Given his descript, I'd check with some SD value, folding to any action. Tough to bluff losing players.
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Old 10-26-2018, 09:31 AM   #6
ralphykid67
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Re: 2/5 - Missed draw. Time to bluff?

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Originally Posted by exoendo View Post
I get wanting to have some check calls on this flop but I think AJhh is way too strong here, you just have so much equity. i mean hell you are drawing live vs. quads lol

If you are going to want to check/call some nut flush draws I think you are better off doing it with hands like a5hh, a3hh etc because that will allow villain to have more QJ, j9, etc
Good point. I wasn't thrilled about the flop check after thinking about it more. Another reason I posted this hand.
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Old 10-26-2018, 09:39 AM   #7
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Re: 2/5 - Missed draw. Time to bluff?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ralphykid67 View Post
Button/Vil is a bad loose player. Plays too many hands, chases often, capable of aggression, makes bad bluffs occasionally. I've played with him many times and know him to be a big losing player.
With this read isn't it better to bet the flop instead of check and have no idea where we're at? This board is ripe for someone to run a bluff when checked to because we are assumed to always bet trips.

Reasons for betting are 1) we can win the pot now and get better hands to fold, like 99-. 2) we have outs against better hands, 3) so we don't get blown off equity by bluffy button.

As played just give it up I think.
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Old 10-26-2018, 05:14 PM   #8
HomelessPizza
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Re: 2/5 - Missed draw. Time to bluff?

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Originally Posted by mdelore View Post
With this read isn't it better to bet the flop instead of check and have no idea where we're at? This board is ripe for someone to run a bluff when checked to because we are assumed to always bet trips.

Reasons for betting are 1) we can win the pot now and get better hands to fold, like 99-. 2) we have outs against better hands, 3) so we don't get blown off equity by bluffy button.

As played just give it up I think.
I like checking here multiway OOP, given flop texture and especially since we block so many hands we want V's to have. HU, cbet is a better option.
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Old 10-29-2018, 03:10 AM   #9
krilleater
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Re: 2/5 - Missed draw. Time to bluff?

I like the check/call line. Too many V's to get a c-bet through and too much equity to fold.

AP, just x/f the river. He's never bluffing with worse and you have some marginal showdown value.
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Old 10-29-2018, 03:33 AM   #10
donkatruck
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Re: 2/5 - Missed draw. Time to bluff?

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Originally Posted by krilleater View Post
I like the check/call line. Too many V's to get a c-bet through and too much equity to fold.

AP, just x/f the river. He's never bluffing with worse and you have some marginal showdown value.
And unfortunately a lot of your SD value just made a straight on the river. A bluff might work on a weak T, but that's it. There's not a lot of other hands that aren't too stronk to bluff out (kx, qj, AT, JJ). Maybe I'm not aggressive enough but this river is a c/f.
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