Reads: V1 (main villain) is a middle aged guy who limps fairly often preflop but haven't seen many showdowns from him postflop. He once 3-bet KK pre against an UTG open, flop came Q 10 4 rainbow and he checked it back on the flop and a blank turn. River was a K and he stacked the other player who had QQ. He seems fairly passive postflop.

V2 (short stack villain) seems like a decent TAG/LAG. He limps fairly wide preflop and seems solid postflop. He's capable of bluffing but doesn't overdo it.

Around 5 limps in EP and MP. V1 then limps in the Cutoff. V2 completes SB. I check BB with 66.

Flop: 876. Checks around (I hoped to check/raise). It's 95 effective vs V2 and 640 effective against V1.

Turn: 876Q. V1 leads for 20 into ~30. I make it 80. V2 calls. V1 shoves for 15 more. We both call.

River: 876QJ.

I lead for 200 into ~315. V2 shoves quickly for about 520. Hero? Also thoughts for previous actions welcome.

I probably don't play bottom set that aggressively on this board with it going 8 handed to the flop.

I would bet 60% pot on flop mostly to protect hand, with that many players you'll get a call from people thinking you're flushing or you have an oesd.

If ugly turn = reassess, bet if just 1 or 2 players left.

If turn and river are blank/low, go to town with betting.

As played, call, next time check call river. He could have two pair, connectors, most of the time if not a set. A straight isn't out of the question.

Why check/call river instead of bet? Check/calling normally would get value from his missed draws (if he has any in his range), but he should never bet on a stone bluff on this river due to the side pot situation. Two pair might check behind but might call a bet.

*Typo in title, it's bottom set not middle*

muck muck

x2. c/c river IMO, V should be folding almost all 2p combos facing a river bet into a dry side pot, obviously folding his missed draws. Think you have to fold river in a limped pot with the 38th nuts facing a shove over top. You are repping a straight and he shoves anyway?

MOD. OP: V2 mixed up w V1 on turn action

Call turn with 3 players left to act. Not interested in protection, nor single street value from draws that have some equity, can still reopen betting, esp w umpteen bad rivs. Fits well in your calling range in this spot. Riv is ck-c or ck-f depending on who bets and how much.

AP easy fold. Ck-eval sizing if this particular V bets. Calling only small bets and moving on...

I think I'd lead river smaller, but you have to lead for value. There's no reason to bluff a dry side pot, and em he may have rivered 2 pair. You'd think with a straight someone already bet the flop and no other draw came in, so i may call if he ever over plays hands, but judging from kk, it may just be a fold unless he was trapping with kk

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Never c/c the river... that's results oriented advice. He's never bluffing missed draws into a dry sidepot so you aren't getting any money from his draws at this point anyway. You are targeting two pair for value and given how passive he is, he's far from certain to bet two pair for value if checked to.

Once he raises the river, it's a fold based upon reads. This is a MUBSy guy who didn't value bet KK on a Q high flop. Normally I'd be skeptical that he would play a straight this way, but that type of player can do this because they want to make sure that their straight holds up before putting in a lot of money.

Check raising this flop a million ways with bottom set when there's like 40+ hand combos that beat us is not good.

I would just bet every street (on blank run outs) and check/call bad turns.

As played fold river.

Fine pre. Bet the flop. You don't have a raiser to check to. Limped pots frequently get checked around on the flop. Lead out for $25 to get value from all the drawing hands. You'll thin the field out and get a better sense where every one is at.

I think you mixed up V1 and V2 on the turn. I'm assuming the turn action went V2 (SB with $90 stack) leads for $20, you raise in the BB, V1 (CO with $640 stack) cold calls, V1 shoves, then call-call. I guess the raise is fine. I don't love it because 6 players haven't acted and you almost have to fold if the action blows up. I'd probably call to see what my opponents do before committing a significant portion of my stack.

Bet/fold the river. I'm fine betting $200 (I'd probably bet $125-150) to go for thin value from two pair, maybe some QhXh hands. V1 won't bluff because he still has to showdown to V2. Easy fold when a 'fairly passive postflop' player raises the river when you repped the nuts on the turn.

As played, fold river.

I think value betting vs. 2-pr combos in a passive opponent's range is better than C/C. I would have gone ~1/2 PSB.

I would not C/R flop on this connected board, more optimum with a gap like 976 imo.

Let's focus on my river decision: first the EV of betting river with the intention of bet/folding. Then how often we have to be good to call river once he shoves.

Let's put an estimate on how often the SB has us beat. Let's say 40% of the time he has us beat (probably not too far off from reality).

Let's say the main villain has us beat 40% of the time as well and will call with the worst hand 25% of the time.

EV bet river = .4(.25(+$200) + .35(0) + .4(-200)) + .6(.25(+$515) + .35(+$315) + .4(-$200)) = .4(-$30) + .6 (+$159) = +$83

Sticking w/ same estimates of how often we're beat where x is how often we need to beat main villain to call river shove.

EV call river shove = 0 = .4(x*$720 - (1-x)*($315)) + .6(x*$1035) - (1-x)*$315))

0 = .4(720x-315+315x) + .6 (1035x-315+315x) = .4(1035x-315)+.6(1350x-315) = 414x-126 + 810x-189= 1224x - 315

x = 25.7%

So if the SB beats us 40% of the time, we only need to beat the main villain 25.7% of the time to break even. If the SB always has us beat, we need to beat the main villain 29.4% of the time. If the SB never has us beat, we need to beat the main villain 22.4% of the time.

That's pretty amazing, that the % needed to beat V2 ranges from only 22.4% to 29.4% depending on the SB's range. That means the SB didn't have quite as strong effect as intuition told me.

So now the question is, is V2 shoving with a non-straight/non-higher set more than 25.7% of the time? Notice if he is not bluffing exactly 25.7% of the time, we can exploit him by folding or calling.

Also, let's look at the right amount to bet on river since some here are saying they'd bet closer to half pot.

It's already been solved that 0=1-(2X)(1+2Y+Y^2) where Y is the fraction of pot to bet and X is how often we're beat gives the best bet size.

So if we're beat 40% of the time, 0 = 1-(.8)(1+2Y+Y^2) = 1-(.8+1.6Y+.8Y^2) = 1-.8-1.6Y-.8Y^2 = -.8Y^2 - 1.6Y +.2

Y = .1061

So if we're beat 40% of the time we should bet only $34. Wow...

But is assuming we're beat 40% of the time BEFORE we bet river too pessimistic? We know we should discount straights and set's fairly significantly since he might have bet flop or re-raised turn with these hands.

Long overdue results (I've been super busy sorry guys).

I fold to river shove, main villain had a decent two pair, the blind had a straight.

Main villain is a massive whale. Make note.

I would always bet that flop. I think the river is a fold if we think V1 is MUBSY and passive post flop.

In the HH you provided I think it would be pretty interesting to know how much money there was behind because a set of kings was not actually the nuts OTR.

Where does this formula come from?

If we can safely bet/fold we only have to be ahead >50% of the time for the bet to be correct. The ideal sizing is what gets us the most value from his range as a whole. I don't see how the variables in your formula can tell us this.

On this particular runout against 7 players I like bet on all 3 streets mostly planning to fold to a raise (depending on V and stack size). Check raising OTF is way too thin given that we shouldn't really be committed on this flop with bottom set 8 handed.