$800 effective here. Villain is a MAAG who is playing about 75% of hands pre flop with the majority being limps and calls (maybe 75/30 stats). He's very sticky on the flop. Will call with any reasonable piece like midpair + or bottom pair with backdoors. Seems to be a bit tighter on the turn/river when big $ is going in. Table is playing very loose passive with most pots being raised and going multiway 4+.
Villain straddles UTG $10
MP limp
Hero limps sb with 9
9
BB check
UTG straddle check
BB and UTG are super loose so I'm thinking i dont wanna bloat this pot OOP and go multiway which is the most likely scenario. I also like to play a bit tighter in straddle pots. This is probably the top of my limping range. Certainly raising TT+.
Flop J
9
5
Pot ~$50
Hero leads $20
Only Villain calls $20
HU to turn K
Pot ~$90
Hero check
Villain $40
Hero call
River K
Pot ~$170
Hero leads $75
Villain raise to $175
Hero?
Do we continue betting on the turn despite the most likely draw coming in? This guy is loose/sticky so he's still pretty wide. I was thinking I can disguise my strength a bit and pot control by going for the check-call.
River is a clear value bet. I'm thinking I should go bigger to get value from Kx. I think $100-$120 is better.
Now he raises pretty quickly and I don't love it but I'm not considering folding. Against some super nit regulars that I have stone reads on I can confidently bet-fold here. He can still be value owning himself with a straight (QT) and some Kx (KQ and KT would call flop and bet turn).
We all know river bluff-raises at LLSNL are virtually non-existent. Are we value owning ourselves with a 3b here? There aren't many combos that beat us: KJ, K9 (we block), K5. Every one of those hands seem to fit his line though. Although now that I think of it he would probably go for a fatter value raise on the river with a boat.
Thoughts? Thanks.