BTN is an older dude who plays tight post-flop. His range pre-flop here is probably all PPs, high suited connectors (89s+), and broadway hands (suited ones for sure, and some offsuit ones).

HJ is a decent TAG-ish player who is stuck 2k and seems to be playing a little spewy.

My image is pretty solid. I bought in for 500 and I got myself up to 1600 without too many showdowns and he's seen me play very aggressively in some decent sized pots.

10 handed Live 2/5 NLHE
Effective stacks 600

Hero: A K
Hero is MP

Hero raises to 20, HJ and BTN call.

Flop: K Q T (pot: 60)
Hero checks, HJ bets 60, BTN calls, Hero raise to 150. HJ folds, BTN calls.

Turn: 6 (pot: 420)
Hero???

Effective stacks are 430.

Quick note on the flop, I checked fairly certain that HJ would bet this flop a lot of times and I could check-raise. I feel like if I lead out on the flop I have very little fold equity but that with a check-raise I can fold out any open ender or combo draws plus some two pair hands that beat me.

P.S. This is my first post in 7 years. I took a break from poker/sports betting after my divorce and black friday but I recently got on Ignition and have been grinding my way back. Hi!

Why did you raise the turn? If he's stuck and spewy just let him unload and check call. Now that you raised and he called I'm not sure what you are ahead of other than KJ. As played river is either check/fold or shove and hope for a fold or to get lucky.

FWIW the tight player called and the spewy player who bet flop folded.

I'm assuming you mean the flop. As mentioned, I felt that check-raising had some fold equity against two pair and some draws whereas leading out did not. If I lead out I'm laying a decent price for the draws to call. You mentioned check/folding river but what's the line on the turn when we pick up equity for nut flush?

I'm not sure you are folding out many 2 pair or pair+draw combos by raising $90 on the flop...

As played, the turn is a good card for us and I think I bet around $200

Probably right, should have raised more. 225-ish total seems better.

C/R this flop is terrible

Arguments can be made for value c-betting and check-calling.

As played, turn is an easy shove with a pot-sized stack once you turn the NFD.

Agree flop is lead or check/call. As played, turn is a shove.

I highly doubt he just calls the raise on the flop w/ two pair. I like the shove on the turn because he might call with his draws and we hope he has a flush draw, too. The shove looks as if we are scared of the heart/board.

If your goal was to fold out the two pair hands, then you got a good turn card to shove here because you still have some equity vs the sets and straights that are calling you here. He needs to fold ~35-40% of the time here for this to be profitable. That seems a bit optimistic to me, but possible. He could still have QJ, KJ, TJ too as he had decent odds to flat on the flop.

I think the check raise on the flop was bad. You have TPTK + gutshot + bd flush, you should want to keep the worse hands in, so it's better to lead or check call.

I would probably lead flop for value, theres a lot of hands you can get value from here, and you have great equity against the ones you're ahead of. Turn I think you can continue barreling. If you bet $45 on the turn we can bet like $120 with our TPTK and gutshot/FD. River is a tricky spot if everything bricks. I think we can jam river though to continue the story of either KK or flopped broadway.

Welcome back and GL on/off the felt!

You have zero fold equity on the flop, i.e. 2-pr is never folding. I like a C/C given the tilted opponent. Building a pot that likely hit the BTN calling range is not a good idea. Once he calls, I'd slow down.

As played, I hate the spot we put ourselves in but think shoving is best. Have FD/SD outs, and some fold equity vs. KT/QT. Calling commits a good part of stack, so calling turn and folding river is not optimal.

+1

Thanks everyone! Last night I did some analysis with a friend who is a regular at these stakes and we came to similar conclusions as most of you who commented. We agreed that as played the shove is the best line but that instead of check raising the flop we should have check called the flop. Assuming we do that instead are we bet-folding the turn when we pick up equity?

Actual results here:

Thank you! I'm enjoying seeing how the strategy has evolved since I left. Online is a lot tougher than I remember so I'm sticking to live games mostly. Still plenty of bad players out there live.

I just cannot think of a reason C/R this flop was good. You are right it is a scary board. Lot of 2 pair combos out there, pair plus straight draw. I don't mind a continuation bet or a check call here. If you are ahead let them keep betting. You are controlling the size of the pot that way. If you are going to C/R though there is already 180 before your raise so they only needed to call 90 to try and win 240. almost anything is calling with any equity at all.