Villain is a solid asian, definitely one of the better players at the table. I'm pretty sure he plays for a living. He plays snug and mainly relies on ABC poker, taking kids to value town.

Villain has verbally told me he thinks I play solid. Not sure if that's true or even worth mentioning.

OTTH 2/5 NL

Effective stack: 1000 (200bb)

Preflop Hero in SB with A A

Asian solid villain (MP) opens 30. Hero 3b to 105 from SB. Villain calls.

Flop (2 players) ($210): 9 5 4

Hero continues for 105.
Villain calls again.

Turn (2 players) ($420): 9 5 4 4

Great turn. Hero bets 250. Villain flats again.

River (2 players) ($920): 9 5 4 4 J

I think I've gotten max value for my one pair hand. I check thinking there is nothing worse that can call.

Hero checks.
Villain shoves for 500.

Hero?

Given the effective at 200bb and that he's IP, I cannot eliminate 99+ from his range.

99 can obviously be a profitable call preflop, given the big implied odds, plus he could very well assume you're wider than just big PP to further justify the call.

If V is capable of showing up with JJ, he's also capable of showing up with QQ and KK (depends whether he always 4bet with KK pre, some do not in live games). However, I am not sure many players in LLSNL would fire with JJ-QQ on the river unimproved.

Without more reads, and I think that's the main problem with these hands and similar threads..., there is no right answer or even just half way decent speculation of whether H's line is +EV.

1420:500 or 2.84:1 or 26% b/e equity...

3 combos of 99, 3 combos of JJ, 6 combos of QQ (maybe), and 6 combos of KK (but how much to discount?)...

It's pretty much an easy call unless you can eliminate hands from above range or able to add hands that you beat.

He could have 99 or JJ, but he could easily have QQ/KK (would have 4bet, maybe?).

The big question is does he think you will fold AA/KK here? Most players won't.

3b a little more like $120. The pot is going to grow geometrically and he's probably going to call $90 close to the same amount of the time he calls $75. It's a $15 difference now but it subsequent bets differences will get big.

Flop good. Turn good. River I'd just jam the rest, don't let him check back a worse hand like TT and see a free showdown. AP call you're toward the top of your range and played AA weird on the river.

In other words, you think Hero is playing KK/AA faced up and that V doesn't think H would fold?

Then it's an easy fold to river shove.

Exactly.

Then we get into metagame.... Does V know what H knows what V knows?

What would be bottom of H's range in this spot, TT and AK?

Does H's range even have enough hands that would induce V to bluff?

If there isn't enough hands to induce a bluff and H's range is very narrow, how can this be a good call?

Depends on your 3b range but I'd have some busted two barrels with flush draws, 67, and then some TT, 9x, JsXs hands that I'd slow down with as a middle of my range. I think AK, AQ should slow down on the turn most of the time.

V can't represent much for value OTR, the board bricked and has a bunch of low cards that miss ranges a lot. It doesn't stop some people from trying to bluff but I don't consider it a good bluff spot for V.

I'm not super excited to call but I'm not about to fold. What are we calling if not AA in this spot, only a full house?

Is anyone concerned that H has the As? It makes me nervous and a lot more inclined to fold than if I had red aces here.

OP here.

Surprised some think this is an easy call. I think his range is disproportionately made up of over pairs JJ+ and AKs.

JJ obviously rivers a set. And I thought/think that he's checking back QQ/KK here a lot for the same reasoning that I don't have anything worse that can call.

So since he's betting on the river, I think he might have JJ or maybe the one combo of AA left? I think it's unlikely he's turning AKs into a bluff here.

Results:

Super easy call if it's JJ+ and AKs.

In other words, you think he's only value betting on the river?

KK gets value from QQ and chops with KK.

My concern is OP getting in a spot OOP 200bb deep and has no read other than being called a solid player.

Grunch.

Sigh snap. River completely bricked and you have the nut best overpair facing a half psb jam. Folding here is beyond nitty. He could sometimes show up with kk here and once every blue moon QQ

Pretty much my standard line, but with this board I'm betting river too. probably shoving to make it bluffy, never folding. if he has 99 or JJ, lucky him but QQ and KK are also in his range.

How can you possibly fold here after putting in $500? If he has JJ or 99 then good for him. Never folding this board for 200bb in 3b pot. Just shove river yourself. V is never folding KK and probably not folding QQ or TT either after putting in half his stack.

Does he think you have enough light 3 bets or does he think you are unbalanced toward value?

Pre I would size up to $120 if we are trying to stick to one 3 bet sizing when OOP, but it’s fine.

Flop and turn look good. As long as you are perceived as constructing your ranges in a reasonably balanced way, I like shoving river. If you think he thinks you are too value heavy then I like check.

Against a high caliber player we have to call unless we have an exploit on him but I don’t think call is printing money. I’m not folding kings here either, QQ, especially with a spade if you think he bluffs missed spades, is probably where it starts to get dicey.

Against a rec absolutely. Against a good pro it’s a bit closer. Missed nut flush draws usually make for bad river bluffs but I’m not sure how many live pros actually know this and follow through on it. Plus, in 3 bet pots, so many of V’s misses are going to be missed flush draws that he might be forced to bluff with them even if he’s playing a GTO based strategy.

He is shoving $500 into a $920 pot, is the first bit of info im looking at (i start with the simple bits first!)
- if he is anywhere near as solid as you claim he is he HAS to arrive with some bluffs by river when checked to. Unless by 'solid' we mean passive fish he is not shoving 100% value.

easy call, even though we may not like it.

He’s not betting you off a chop he’s betting for value. This is a snap call.

grunch

Pre I hope you're doing this with at least QQ+/AK/Axs/56s-89s oslt. Flop you have more equity but villain has nut advantage + we block the NFD, I'd default to putting this combo in my checking range and betting without the NFD blocker. I'd also go either 80-100 with my full range or check a good amount and bet more like 200 when I bet.

On the turn I would just rip it in, it's less than a 2x pot overbet, prices out draws, and puts most of his range in a real tough spot.

Shove river yourself probably, you block the nfd and thus a lot of his air range, I think a check lets QQ/KK off the hook while making you pay off JJ. As played snap river he could even be shoving worse, though it is unlikely.

Gotta jam river for value blocking the NFD. Check folding is really bad.

Agreed. Would you comment on the line you would take here?

I’m checking this flop at a decent frequency. But I cannot fault H’s turn bet. I like the turn check too.

The water got deep fast and I don’t like calling down here with As but I think it’s a live read. I don’t think Hero butchers his line here but I’d love to hear your thoughts.

Thanks!

I would probably make the decision early to play a big pot or small one.

Without read, OOP, and 200bb deep? Not gonna pretend that I am a poker god and probably small ball this hand.

Is this villain's standard pf open size 6x? If not, I'd narrow his range to top tier holdings. Preflop raise sizing tells are a pretty reliable source of information, especially when there is great disparity between the sizes.