2-5 effective 200.
EP is an aggressive pro short-stacker opens to 15. Folds to hero in BB w 44 calls.
Heads up
(32) Flop JT4r
Check check
(32) Turn 6x.
Hero bets 20, call.
(72) Riv T.
Hero bets 70?


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I like c/shove

I don't really like set mining here against a pro. You're getting way more than enough implied odds on paper but I doubt in reality a pro is going to pay you off often enough for you to make this +EV.

This is because he's going to establish pretty quickly that you're only flatting 99- out of the blinds via your x/f frequency and how you play when you do hit. If you ever want to make the pot big after that you're just going to find he folds unless he can beat your obvious set. If you're able to play a wider range out of the blinds for a flat then ok but don't just flat in the blinds to set mine Vs a decent player.

So in this hand you called £10 and made a set so you need to win at least £80 to break even. Looks pretty tough after V checks flop.

I guess V bets flop with KJs+, some KQ and 98s along with some overcards+gotshot+BDFD combos. He probably checks QJs- and maybe some combos of JJ/JTs KQ so that his checking range isn't just air.

So you have to bet turn obviously and you need to rapidly build the pot. I'd probably go to nearer pot trying to target V's JX KQ and best TX (AT KT). I'd bet £28.

V doesn't raise your £20 bet so I doubt he has turned a set of 6s or slow played JJ/JTs. I put him on QJs ATs KTs and a handful of KQ.

River T is good for you, it gives V some combos he can call a sizeable bet with or can convince him you may be bluffing a missed draw with KQ/98 yourself if you bet big and get a call from QJs type hands. So I like your big bet.

Could you go for an overbet? Maybe but you'd have to incorporate it into your game in a bigger way than just when you're trying to get paid while holding a boat.

Is there any danger V is trapping with a monster? Possibley but only if he already has reason to believe you are just set mining him here. If that were the case he could sabdbag TT/JJ knowing he's only getting paid if you hit a set and that you'll keep betting if you do so he can wait till river to raise. But I doubt this is the case unless you have significant history together.

This works very well against V's TX but maybe doesn't get much from his weak JX. I also doubt a pro will turn many combos of missed straight draws that he played passively so far into a bluff on the river, but you never know.

I guess the danger of betting big on the river is it does alert V that you're pretty strong if you're currently perceived as very ABC.

But then if you're perceived as ABC X/shove may not work either....

Bet pot. If he has a T he calls. If he doesn't he's folding to most bets anyway.

I would fold this pre unless V is always this passive. He just doesn't have enough to pay you off here when you hit.

What position did villain open from?

From EP he won't have much JX/TX in his range but from LP he can. When he doesn't bet the flop you can take over pairs out of his range. So from EP his range is mostly AK/AQ and pairs under tens. He can turn up with more in LP.

Against his EP range I like a check/raise because he likely has a lot of air that won't call any bet and hoping for a bluff is your best option. From LP I prefer a bet because he should have more single pairs that can call a bet but will check behind if you check.

^ that's true QhadJ except I think V likely just ditches most if his pocket pairs 99 and below and his AQ/AK vs hero's turn bet. So I guess V just has a pretty narrow range going to river and JX/TX, though a small part of his opening range preflop, have become significant parts of his much narrowed river range.

I'm basing that on thought that BB should be flatting a narrow and specific range himself preflop. Maybe just QQ-22 and suited Broadway. Therefore hero's turn betting range is chock full of QQ, sets and JX/TX. I suppose V's AK/AQ can peel one on the turn though with gutshot and two overs...

I'm more sold on X/r river than earlier but not completely convinced. Wouldn't a good player either be cbeting AK/AQ on the flop or just giving up with it? Do you think V is so lacking hands to check flop and continue turn he has to use significant combos of AK/AQ for that purpose? I guess, maybe tomorrow I'll construct an entire range properly and see what would go where.

This is a pretty great flop texture to lead with these stack sizes, as played its only a question of how much to bet on river

JT hits your calling range hard, with AK/AQ villain wants the free card to see if he can fill in and under pairs are already trying to keep the pot small.

Having checked the flop he is likely to think he can't automatically give up when you bet turn. Particularly if he has a pair he is likely to call one street figuring there is a chance you have AK/AQ/air when there is no betting on flop.

^ fair point quadj. I guess because I'd just x/f 99- and won't continue AK vs a pot sized flop bet I expect others to do likewise.

99 has < 30% equity vs a flop betting range of all Broadway, T9s T8s and 44.

So any "pro" X/c 99- either has a killer read or is tilted.

AK/AQ does better against the same range with 38% equity and has the advantage it can stack a load of 2-pair pretty easily when it turns the nuts.

I don't hate X/c with AK/AQ but if you're going to x/c I'd prefer to just bet it to make V fold his equity with 99- and for value vs KQ (73% equity for AK/AQ). You can go bet flop for about half pot, pricing in KQ and expect most opponents to take a call flop, check turn line a fair amount of the time. On the river they won't often bet they're 99- for value or turn it into a bluff because it has showdown value vs AK/AQ. However, KQ will sometimes bluff as it knows it can't beat PFR's AX. PFR can then bluff catch.