9 handed 2/5 game $1k max buy.

V is young aggressive player who covers. Is very active but has not shown down anything yet. Frequencies would dictate he's LAG but it's only been about 20-30 minutes so he could just be running hot.

Hero is MAG who hasn't seen a flop yet due to poor hands and raises, probably viewed as a nit.

OTTH: Two limps in front and Hero looks down at QJ in the HJ. Due to description above and decent position Hero raises to $25. Overlimping seems the worst option as there is very likely a raise behind. Once we limp call our range is capped and it will be very difficult to play post with QJo, especially if we are OOP. And why limp / fold if we expect a bet most of the time behind? Obv if we get 3! here we have to fold but since we haven't seen a flop yet we may get some respect. CO calls, BUT calls, V calls from UTG+3.

Flop (~$100) - Q 8 4
V leads for $50, Hero decides to call since the board is dry and a raise will likely only be called by better. With two players behind this is questionable but our hand is also not super strong so we can get away if a bad turn hits. CO and BUT fold.

Turn ($200) - Q 8 4 5
V leads for $100. Hero is ranging V on Qx here. Since he's been so active AQ and KQ seem near impossible (limp). QJ, QT, Q9 seem likely. He will have some sets but shouldn't have much 2 pair. 67 got there but who leads 67 in a 4 way pot first to act on that flop? Hero again decides to call after thinking for a bit.

River ($400) - Q 8 4 5 3
V checks. Pretty good run out for us as the river doesn't appear to change anything. Normally I would only look to get two streets out of a top pair decent kicker hand but given how this has played out and how the aggressive V has checked the river Hero decides to go for thin value. Hero bets $225.

Thoughts?

Take my opinion with a grain of salt since I'm not overly experienced.

I think I'd bet smaller on the river to keep Q10 and Q9 in. It's not as if there were many flopped draws V can put you on to assume that larger bet = polarized range and call light. I think if you bet like 150 he might have less to think about and just sigh-call with weaker queens.

I think I like the bet in general though just because it doesn't make a lot of sense for him to try to trap the missed draws into bluffing when the flop was so dry.

Thanks, good point. My intent wasn't to try and get the most calls or induce a raise. I think if I go too small I run the risk of inducing a bluff although it's super unlikely V would try a x/r for value OTR. I don't mind a 150 sizing if we want to get calls. I sized up a bit because his value range was so thin, and even more thin given the river check and my line can also be seen as confusing to some players. If I was bluffing I would size more than half pot. Also if he folds I get to continue to rep a tighter opening range than QJo. So I went with $225 as a combination of those reasons. We probably get called less frequently but when we don't get the call it's not a disaster and when we do get the call we get significantly more value if we are ahead (15 BB). In general when value betting I DO size down to get more calls but I've been trying to use larger sizings for value the last year and for the most part I think I'm getting more value as a result.

I think that this is a good play, but it's a leak that I find in my own game. c/c/bet always feels meh to me. I would expect to see QT or something similar most of the time, but because you've been so passive, V would have little reason to expect to see you bet the river and allow for a x/r.

Sizing can always be argued, but you're slightly over half pot, V is getting 2.8:1 here, and maybe I'd like to give him slightly better odds to induce a call, but all in all, I think this is the right play most of the time.

This is indeed pretty thin, but I like your river bet more than a check here, and I like your sizing for the reasons you stated as well. I don’t see an aggressive V having K-Q or better here because they’d just open pre most of the time.
I think your bet might get you a straight win on an otherwise chopped pot, or a win from Q-10s, Q-9s type hands.
WP on all streets imo.

15 -17 hands seem too early to precisely peg images, both opponent and Hero. We should certainly generate ideas, recognizing the perceptions may change with more history.

I’d fold pre from the HJ.

The position from where the V limped is important. The earlier, the more likely I’d put them on a stronger hand. Leading into 3 opponents on a drawless board is usually a sign of strength. QX/88/44, less likely KK+ hoping to L/RR, but it’s early. I’d likely fold to continued turn action.

As played, I’d likely check back if the configuration is an EP opponent. There are 8 combos of QT and 2 of Q9s, while there are 8 combos of KQ and 6 of 88/44. I'd underweight air/draws given the flop action.

Betting >1/2 pot would likely fold worse imho. If he limped from say MP1, something smaller like $105-$120 may get a call.

You’re excluding the other Q-J chop combos though.
I underweight some of the K-Q combos due to the limp pre.
I underweight 88/44 due to the check OTR.
In these close spots I’ve personally come to find that betting is usually better than checking.

Boils down to whether LAG villain open limps from utg3 with QT/Q9... its close either way
If you do bet I don't like sizing up this much. Somewhere around 150 imo

What is your stack?

I think this is pretty thin, but I like it. With your image, it's hard to imagine his calling with worse. Might make it a little smaller, but just over half is about right. Need to know your stack, though, to know whether this is a committed move.

Thanks, yea sizing can indeed always be argued.

This was my line of thinking as well. Thanks.

Very valid points. It was very early in the session but this was at least the third orbit, possibly even the fourth. Not that it makes much difference but 25 or so hands is a lot more than the 15 you indicated. Hands were rarely getting to the river and no one was tanking so we were humming along nicely.

Nothing wrong with folding pre from the HJ here. I stated why I didn't want to limp, didn't touch on folding but it was certainly an option. Ultimately I felt if we didn't play a hand for 40 minutes we probably wouldn't get much action when we did pick up a premium hand. Given the situation I thought it was worth pushing here with a marginal hand. Easy to fold post if we miss.

I know we are early in the session and shouldn't trust reads too much but I really expected this V to raise 88 at least most of the time and KQ+ always. After two callers behind he will also be squeezing any limped monster like KK. So we are really only worried about a crazy Q8s as I expect all of his sets to go for 3 streets. Chop is also likely, so if we can get him to fold river on a chop its a win.

Sizing argument is never ending and I tended to agree but as stated, I've been experimenting with larger the last year to get a better feel.

Agree on ranging. Noted.

Whoops, good point. Forgot to include my stack. I was playing about $600 and V had about 1k so it was probably perceived as a committed move. That means after the river bet I have about $200 behind. Would be gross if he 3! there but I cant imagine how he can find a raise there without a set as he cant ever expect Hero to fold.

Does this imply we should only go for thin value when we can afford to bet / fold? Important consideration but I think we've narrowed his value range enough to go for it at least some of the time. Could also go back to sizing. Even at $150 we could argue over commitment issues as I'd have $275 behind and the pot should be close to 1k...

I actually don’t mind your river sizing, but I can see the merit to sizing down a bit.
Your size might get you the win on the chop, lower might get you paid off by worse, but you risk a good player realizing that it’s close and just shoving to put you in a tough spot. I don’t see many players that good so I think optimal river sizing is between $150 and the $225 you chose. $175-ish is optimal I would think.
Feel free to let the discussion continue first, but I am curious to know results.

Agreed. $175 may be more optimal. I'd like to hear from a few more but have no problem posting results after anytime they are requested.

Im having trouble believing V has overcalled then donked into 3 players including preflop raiser with a weak Q. Even if I believe that, which I don’t, I have a hard time seeing him barreling turn after H flats, given H’s image and preflop line. I think this is a maniac line or is way stronger than everyone here thinks.

Regarding river bet, H is value betting from the bottom of our range targeting calls from the bottom of V’s range. Seems a little fancy to me. I admit I’m not good enough to do this. Maybe you guys are and God knows there are excellent players ITT.

v’s line is either chicken poop or H is walking into a chainsaw. I cannot decide which. The water here is deep and unfamiliar to me at least. I’m checking behind perhaps leaving thin value on the table but expecting to be beat often.

I'm not sure I like it with only $600 to start the hand. Really tough to bet/fold for $225. I'd go with $150 or just check behind. I'd probably fold to a raise, because he'd have to be really ballsy to raise with a hand you beat.

Very fair points. I've checked this behind a million times before as well. Usually I was good in these spots, which is why I opted to go for value this time. How do you range V? What two pair+ hands can he have that check river given our passive line? What 1 pair hands have us beat given pre flop action?

I admit I went with my read and did not consider stack size perhaps as much as I should have. I'm sure most will say bet / fold is out of the question but I tend to agree that bluff raising river into a short stack with a hand we can beat seems almost impossible and we should be able to fold anyway. I'm sure there are many spots where stack size will conflict with your read. I'm not sure sizing down to 150 completely eliminates this issue either.

He could have AQ or KQ, which I doubt he'll fold. Would he 3bet AQ pre?

I think he 3 bets AQs with some frequency but I dont think he open limps AQ at any frequency. I really dont see him limping KQo much either. Him limp calling pre was one of the most defining streets IMO.

Noted that opponent limped from +3 (MP1).

If AQ/KQ/88 are all eliminated based on history, the river is a clear value bet. There are 3 combos of 44 vs. double-digit combos of Q9s/QT/QJ. He likely would not check Q8 (top two) on the river.

With $425 left, $105-$120 based on opponent flop action. Allows a fold to X/R.

Exactly. That’s why this is less thin than it seems imo.
I think betting for value is a very good play here.
Anytime that I think I’m in a really close spot I have learned that putting the difficult decision on your opponent is the best play. Even if it didn’t work out here, the people at the table and especially V will be willing to call you down lighter next time that you have a clear value bet on the river. This kind of bet is +EV in the future against these opponents that witnessed/noted this hand (players that pay attention) if you remove a few bluffs and focus more on value.
Even if you lost I think this is very well played. The only hand I think you potentially lose to is KQo. The only slight improvement would be sizing to $175-ish to get called down a little lighter as we were covering above.
I really like your play here.

This hand is also a perfect example of why opening is such an advantage in poker and how aggression is usually advantageous. Because you opened pre V is more likely to put you on hands like KQ and AQ, and can let go of chop pots with QJ. Conversely, if V opened pre here, you would have KQ and AQ as a heavy part of V’s range and would never go for thin value here.
And if the result is that you lost to AQo or KQo, this will not change how I feel about this point or how you played this hand at all.

My caution stems from the fact that you have 30 minutes with this V and we just don’t have a good read. So I don’t like value betting from the bottom of our range readless in a tight spot after V takes a weird line.

The peculiar thing with this hand is that you’re sorta uncapped here. You could have taken your line with QQ/AA for Pete’s sake. This V is just oblivious and barreling away. Now maybe Hero caps himself a little with the turn flat. But plenty of Heroes here might keep walking the dog too.

Maybe V slowed down with his monster to induce a bet from you, given that river is bricky. Or maybe he doubted whether his KQ/QJ was good. His line is a bit odd. People are too focused on his preflop limp and not focused enough on his flop lead into 3 players.

Irange him on KQo/88/44/QJ/QT in that order of likelihood. I cannot fathom any 2 pairs he’d take this line with. We’re beaten (of one pair combos) only by KQo but 225 isn’t folding it and you’re so vulnerable to a x r jam.