Game is 2/5 at a quite loose-aggressive table. I've been at the table for about an hour, and haven't played with the other players at the table.

Hero is late 20s white guy, bought in for $300 (I know, I know), and after dropping about $100 in 3 or 4 pretty clear fit-or-fold spots (all but one were multiway folds OTF with hands like 88 or ATs, and one was a combo draw that missed), I had gotten up to about 550 after catching QQ twice and doubling up / felting a short stack. Hero is playing out of the rack, as I intended to only play the next 3 hands. Image is tight, thinking player, possibly unwilling to play big pots without big hands.

Eight-handed, it folds to me in the LJ and I open 77 for $15.

Folds to the Button, a sloppy-looking white guy in his 30s. It's worth noting that a lot of guys in my area are single oil rig workers who recently got back to work, have money to blow, and eagerly do so. That being said, I can't tell whether he fits the bill. So far, he's limped quite a few hands in position, but hasn't really gotten involved too much. Not much of a read on him. Villain raises to $55, and I ask him how deep he's playing. He covers me by about $100, so I call for the implied odds.

Flop ($110) is T42. I check it to him, and after a few moments, he bets $65. My analysis is that he has more AK/AQ/KQ than overpairs, almost no Tx, and perhaps a few spade draws which I'm beating (more likely since, in the words of Teddy KGB, "I do not heff schpades"), so I decide to call.

Turn ($240) is the J. Again, I don't expect this card to have helped him. While he could have JJ, I don't think AJ would have bet the flop, and few other Jx hands could reasonably have 3bet - even at this aggro table, he hasn't been too wild. Additionally, if I check here, he can bluff with two napkins.

I decide to merge my range here, and bet the 77 for value hoping to get him off of AK/AQ, which seem to be his most likely holdings and take up at least, I think, half of his range. I lead out for $85, intending to bet-fold if raised and reassess on the river if called. Thoughts?

I guess my question is why you are discounting higher pairs from his range? He's done nothing to indicate a slowdown, so I think his range is quite strong, and that you probably only have something between 30 and 35% equity. Maybe 40% if you think a spazz is possible.

I mean ... I guess if you think QQ+ is betting larger on the flop, maybe you can reduce the frequency of those.

I say this as a passionate anti-MUBSY player. And I like the lead if v had ever called or checked in the hand.

u dont really got odds to setmine 77 with 60bbs man.

also your way off everywhere. rarely is med pair good from a 3bet in live low limit settings. takes a special villain.

I dont like the flop either but its not horrible, i guess we can call once, i mean we are unknown as well.

The lead in theory is good but horrible sizing, you accomplish othing but the bloat the pot up and you are OOP. If he had AJ here, he is never folding. If he had QQ he is never folding. Hes never folding anything cause you called a 3bet pre and played a fairly low board passively when there is a front door draw in. He is folding AK here though im sure, and if your goal was to get dead money then good job, AK AQ has decent equity you dont want to relaize for free.

You should have planned this hand better, you cant really try to get 3 streets of play plus pre with 60bbs. this is more like pre, flop, shove turn stack size.

Lead seems fine, but I also want him to hero fold overpairs some of the time. If you're going to do this, $145/give up IMO.

He has 110bb

This. I guess it's the flop size, but that seems like thin evidence. The board is reasonably dry, so there's no reason to expect a big bet.

So in other words, the evidence so far is that he's passive.

There's nothing to suggest that this dude is not simply one of those players who only threebets AA and KK. Given this possibility and the fact that it's a marginal spot anyway, I'd x/f flop.

AP, I hate the turn bet, at best it will fold worse hands and be called by better, but it might not even accomplish that. AK and AQ will have direct odds to draw against you. Assuming I end up in this turn spot, I'm checking and allowing him to keep bluffing if a bluff is what he has.

I think fold pre is best

As played you're greatly overestimating how often he has AQ or even AK here.

Huh? Who folds an overpair here with double FDs out there and some Ax gutshots/straight draws?

I don't expect it to happen often, but I definitely expect it to happen if we bet big enough. The point isn't really to try to bluff out those hands though; it's that the bet op suggested was too small to even get AK to fold.

This is a pretty standard bluff line against a V who cbets too much as an alternative to a reverse float. For starters you don't have this read, and this should be done with either a hand that can beat AA or air, not a middle pair that you think is good. Just see if he gives up instead. Never calling this pre.

you might be reading hands by giving them what you want them to have according to what your hand is. not good to do.
although you are on the right track in thinking about how to win hands.

IMO this hand is a bit of a train wreck....
Pre you are not getting anywhere near enough odds to be mining 77 here, pretty clear fold.
Flop, fine we got to the flop, now we have to call.
Turn, the lead just makes no sense here.... If you think he is bluffing then check calling is the play, if he isn't then check folding.... You say you are merging your range here, but to merge you need to a) be polarised, and b) have a villan that will recognise your polarised...
You arnt polarised because well, what air do you have? And what nuts do you have.... The call on the flop gets rid of all the air, and the j really doesn't bring any hands home that we can be repping save possibly jt,
You have also given us no indication this villan would be able to recognise a purposefully polarising bet anyway...

After your turn bet you should absolutely not put another cent into this hand...

Get rid of the fps.... At a table full of easy money there is just no need to try and be creative....

You bet $85 into $240. Villain is getting almost 4-1 on a call. Well he is never folding the hands you target when they are diamonds. He will probably figure he has 7 outs so he would have to think you bluff less that 6% of the time to fold. I don't see him folding here.

Beyond the usual fold pf advice, you shouldn't be using any logic that is beyond your opponents capabilities to justify a bluff. You only want to be thinking one level above your opponents. You lose money when you think more than one level above them.

I'd likely take the small hit and call this guy too pre with any pair, as long as I can reliably play flops with the limited info I have. When I see this board, even without paint, it's just a poor flop with minimal bd equity, no playability, and a dirty set out, so once facing another sizable bet from a so-far quiet player, I'd just let it go.

I'd feel ok about it knowing there are lots of better flops for 77 against his range and lots of hands in my range that are better than 77 on this flop.