Local $2/$5 underground game, 8 handed, small player pool so everyone has tons of history with each other.

Hero (MP, $1,000) - Winning TAG image, perceived by Villain as a competent player capable of making moves.

Villain (SB, $840) - TAG-ish reg, probably one of the more competent players in the local player pool. Prefers PLO, but still a small winning player at NLHE. Hero has 3bet Villain's preflop opens twice tonight in position. Villain folded both times.

Recent history:

HH1 (3 days before hand in question): Villain limps UTG, three more limpers from MP, Hero raises to $35 from the BTN with AA, BB calls, Villain calls, two limpers calls. Flop is 722. Checks around to Hero, Hero bets $105, BB folds, Villain checkraises to $250 (leaving himself $265 behind), Hero ships, Villain calls with A2.

HH2 (1 hour before hand in question): Villain limps UTG, MP raise to $25, Hero calls from the CO with 76, Villain calls. Flop is Q32, everyone checks, Hero bets $70, BB folds, Villain folds, MP (preflop raiser) calls. Turn is the 8, MP checks, Hero bets $130, MP folds JJ face up, Hero shows the bluff. Villain remarks to MP: "Man I never would have let flyingtriangle bluff me off jacks there. I would be calling down three streets with your hand for sure."

OTTH:

Hero opens to $25 with TT from MP2, folds to Villain in the SB who 3bets to $65. Hero calls.

Flop ($135): A93.

V checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($135): T.

V checks, Hero bets $115, Villain checkraises to $415. Hero tanks about 20 seconds and calls.

River ($965): 6.

Villain shoves for $380, Hero calls.

Thoughts?

You would have to have an almost perfect read on this villain to put them on AA. Why call the turn, just get it in. He has AA, ok. Buy some chips. Are you really folding a set on the turn on that board?

Never folding here, sorry he had AA

I think he check calls turn with AA hoping you bluff some more, shove turn over his largish CR

He does have AA a lot here and he obviously did given this post, but not folding to this villain. He can be doing something weird (either a bluff or 3bet light and made a weird two pair), overplay AK, have 99 sometimes. Can't fold.

Absolutely never a fold

Ship turn. He can have 99 and other stuff

snapppity snap.
Not even close imo.

fwiw: You have the 3rd nuts, not the second.
But if he has 87s here, then even more reason to stack off imo as he has even more 99/33 in his range.

Ship turn but otherwise wp IMO...that is just my personal preference as are you really not not calling for a 1-3 pot river bet.

Insta call

Not sure why people want to **** the turn when the board is stupid dry and we have position.
We move him off all his stupid semi-bluffs, weak Aces that he is just going nuts with, random whatever else. If we were OOP maybe it would be different, but we have the option to ship the river no matter what else happens so lets flat the turn and shove the river.

looks like set over set. but you can't fold that.

I'd play Aces the same as well, hoping the villain catches up. But I don't think if I'm hero I'm folding seeing only one hand combo beats us. Close my eyes and call here

Unless V is very LAG and bluffy, I'm not sure how this is as easy as people seem to think. V is playing this exactly like AA so it's either AA or a bluff/level.

I guess for me, the question is how often has V 3-bet hero. OP says he has 3-bet V multiple times, but has V ever 3-bet light at all? If not, it's probably the standard JJ+, AQ+ that you see. All of these hands in that range except AA don't play this hand this way from a competent V. So, it's either AA or some kind of bluff/level.

AQ/AK, surely he leads flop or turn. I think this would be such a strange way to play AQ/AK it's very unlikely. JJ-KK is purely a bluff or a level. 99 is possible, but that goes back to read and history does he make the pre 3-bet w/ 99?

Insta call.

That huge check/raise on the turn seems pretty bad with AA. Or is he looking for value from exactly TT?

To everyone else in the thread - I don't think OP is asking if we should fold river. Obviously we're never folding. He's asking for a check on the whole line start to finish.

Also shoving turn is ridiculous, especially since we're in position and are calling all rivers. Why would we let him fold his air or AK?

Hand is played well imo. I probably bet turn smaller. Definitely never shoving turn

Thanks for the responses, everyone. I guess the results are pretty obvious, but yes, Villain had AA.

This is a great outline of why I’m a little hesitant to just write this hand off as “oh well, another standard cooler, nothing I could have done.”

As far as I can recall this was the first time Villain had 3bet preflop during this session. Villain is a thinking player and capable of 3betting light in certain situations, but it’s not a big part of his game. I’d put the odds of him showing up with some kind of light 3bet here at less than 5%, and even then I’d expect him to cbet this flop with his air a lot.

Villain is never taking this line postflop with AK or AQ.

When Villain 3bet from the blinds and then checked the ace-high flop first to act I was putting him on a range of mostly JJ-KK. Recalling his earlier comment to the effect that he would never let me bluff him off a big pocket pair with an overcard on board, I elected not to stab at the flop. For the same reason I decided to bet rather large when I hit my set on the turn, hoping V would put me on a bluff and call down.

Once V comes in with that gigantic checkraise on the turn I feel like the only value hand he can have is AA. There is no way this is ever going to be an overplayed AT or anything else. The thing is, like Homey D. Clown pointed out, this is a pretty bad line by Villain with AA in this spot because TT, 99, and 33 are literally the only hands I can call him with, and I don’t really have 99 or 33 in my range the way the action has gone down so far.

IMO this is a tough spot because on the one hand I don’t see how Villain can ever show up with a hand that we beat, but on the other hand I don’t see how we can ever fold...

I get what you're saying. But you only need to give V one combo other than AA to make calling profitable. Does V ever 3bet lite? If so, isn't at least one combo of 99, AT, or A9 in his range. Can't a player who views you as bluffy try to play back? It's unreasonable to expect the kind of certainty you need to lay this down.

FWIW, I think you played the hand great start to finish.

Hence, cooler. He even gave you the free card to set it up.

****ty spot, man.

+1 on that bad c/r. Might be that he had a read on hero (tell, bet sizing), and figured he'd commit, but idk.

Wp. Line looks exactly AA from pf to river but you can't fold that turn. Cooler to chalk it up.

Ya looks fine.

As crappy as it is, I do think most tag reg V's do just always seem to have it in spots like this. They don't bluff off $800+ stacks, especially not in a runout like this. So yeah maybe you can be a super nit and just fold the turn x/r. He's repping slow played AA.. 99/AT almost never takes a line like this (they don't crush the deck like AA does). These are the only value hands he can really be doing this with.

But I don't actually think you should fold the turn. The day you start doing that you start to become a worse poker player overall IMO. Just allow yourself to get coolered occasionally with second nuts, and be glad that they're missing out on a ton of value by not bluffing enough against you with a huge part of your range that they most likely would fold out with a line like this.... Because look at it like this, if you are only ever calling with say TT and AT here (I assume you always bet 99), then from a game theoretic perspective, you are probably playing too nitty and your tightness is what's exploitable, not too loose. Don't worry that your looseness in a spot like this is costing you money.