First hand:

Game is 2/5 on a Sunday night. Hero has a slightly loose TAG, winning image. Bought in for 300 and has built stack up to about 700. I doubled up this one hand where someone raised early to 15, I 3bet with KK to 40, get 2 callers, original raiser folded. Flop was Q high and I just bet/bet and got it in vs a calling station.

Villain in hand is a TAG. I've seen him play before and I'm pretty sure he's an online player as well. Have not seen him get out of line and nothing out of the ordinary. His stack is about 1000.

On to the first hand...

Hero raises in early position with 88 to $20. A meh player calls and villain calls on the button.

Flop 3way (65): Q 6 4
Hero bets 45. First guy folds, villain calls.

Turn (155): 5
Hero checks. Villain checks.

River (155): 8
Hero bets 195..??


Second hand

This is after the first hand. Villain in this hand is also a standard TAG, probably a bit more on the nittier side than usual. Have not seen him make moves, but he did limp/call me earlier with 88, checked a QJ4 flop multi-way OOP, then bet a turn 3, and checked river (other player in the hand was a huge calling station fish). Stack is about 800.

Hero's image is bordering on LAG but definitely not out of line and I have not been caught bluffing, so I have a good, winning image. Covers villain.

UTG (villain from first hand) straddles to 10. Villain calls in CO. Hero raises to 40 with QJo from the button. Folds to villain who calls.

Flop HU (95): Q J 6
Villain checks. Hero bets 45. Villain calls.

Turn (185): 8
Villain checks. Hero checks.

River (185): 9
Villain checks. Hero bets 70...?

I think first hand is fine.

2nd hand I think you played pretty poorly post flop. If you're gonna raise qj pre and you basically flop gin I think you need to be trying to put as much money in the pot as possible. Bet more on flop, bet turn, river I would have probably just checked it down because it is a ****ty card for us and we would be in a bad spot if V decided to c/r us. I also don't feel we get called enough by worse to bet. We have enough showdown value where I think I would just check.

Hand 1: Line is OK, though I wouldn't always c-bet this flop against multiple villains. River is just a question of judging how sticky he is. Your beating everything except a few low straights and the backdoor flush, neither of which is likely.

Hand 2: River bet seems very thin but after under sized flop and no turn bet your hand is so under repped that any single pair is likely to call. With a bigger flop/turn I would mostly check behind on river, expecting anything I beat to fold to a bet. Betting the turn here is a good idea anyway and after under betting the flop it is essential. Villain could still have a lot of hands here on river. Essentially you played this so badly that villain's range on river is still huge and mostly hands you beat so a bet is in order.

1st hand - cbet smaller, check turn is good... and while I love me some thin overbets I think this is a pretty bad one w/o having seen a tendency from him to call light, he has 7x a lot here and qx is too often folding - i probably just make it either $90 or if I wanted to appear bluffy, bet $105 or $115. Betsizing was probably bad this hand despite outcome.

2nd hand - flop has to be bet harder. turn should be barreled hard too, there is more that is potentially looking you up for two streets than just sets esp if you appear LAG.

not a fan of either hand

+1 to both hand analysis

Hand 1, as said, I can see a 7 here a lot. Any suited 7, suited connectors, and gappers as well. And with any of those combos, they are more than likely to call one off otf and take a free one ott assuming they didn't hit ott. I would probably bet smaller on the river to get Q's to call and some 2pairs. And obv with that bet, we are b/f.

Hand 2, Would bet flop, turn and probably check river.

At first I thought there were more 7s in villains range but if you look at the combinations of 7s.. there really aren't that many.. remember villain is TAG - he's not calling with garbage

78s --- 1 combo
75s --- 3 combos
76s --- 2 combos
77 --- 6 combos

Not to mention that 75 is going to raise flop.. so that's probably more like 2 combos

76s and 77 are REALLY light peels on the flop considering I cbet 3 ways, although I guess it's still possible.. and he's going to bet 76 a lot of the time on the turn when he picks up a super combo draw.. but let's discount the 8 combos to maybe like 4 combos

Then I guess he could float with 78s, but is he going to check behind on a double flush draw board when he makes the nuts?? Heck no!

So we have 6 combos of 7s..

Compare that to the number of Qx he can have. We'll make his range narrower assuming he ONLY calls with suited versions..

AQ --- 3 combos, although he might raise AQ on the flop, so let's say 2 combos
KQ --- same as AQ... 2 combos
JQ --- same... 2 combos
QT --- same... 2 combos
Q9 --- okay maybe not as much, but certainly not out of the realm of possibility, so 1 combo?

We end up with 6 combos of 7s and 9 combos of Qx.. and that's ONLY the suited versions of Qx, many people, even tags, will call QJ+ off-suit in position, especially AQ.. AND we discounted all the suited combos too

So given all of that, I think it's a clear value bet. Yeah sometimes we value own ourselves but whatever.. that's the price of playing good poker.

Btw those saying backdoor flush draw need to look at the board and think about which backdoor flush cards he can have.. Pretty much the only one I see is maybe 34 if he ever decided to play that preflop and then check turn.. I just don't see it. Oh and perhaps A6. Well give him one combo of a flush which we're going to b/f against.

Btw yeah second hand I really butchered in hindsight. I was trying to play cautious against the guy and really wasn't too sure what he was capable of. I just knew he was a decent TAG, but no real idea of his lines. I agree I should have just bet bigger on flop and then b/f turn, very bad to check turn behind there. At least I git some value on the river.

How does he have 7x a lot when he called 20 preflop, a 45 bet on a Q64 flop and checked through on an 8 turn?

There is literally zero evidence of villain having a 7 here, and a bunch of evidence against it.

Unless he has a flush draw with a random 7 in it that called a 20 bet preflop, I think a 7 is a long shot.

so tag is otb in a 3way, w/potentially more depending on looseness of blinds

a7s couldn't be in his range? 97?

sure he'll get to river w/qx more often, but overall it appears you either valueown yourself or he doesn't call your overbet w/worse unless there's some evidence he's a station, or some egotistical idiot that's apt to making awful hero calls

absent such reads or any history, going from $45 to $195 on this runout seems like clicking buttons & overly optimistic, unless you left something out in the op. imo

i mean the overbet probably isn't terrible since, afterall it's lollivepokers and everybody sucks, but going less here has to be more ev

Hand 1 seems good, your hand is almost always good here (he has very little 7x and backdoor clubs in his range given action thus far) and the big bet probably levels him into thinking your range is very polarized and calling.

Not in love with the PF raise in hand 2, I think you can definitely play this hand profitable OTB but raising is pretty marginal. As played, hate the check back on the turn, it's a clear v-bet given the board texture. River bet seems okay, it's a bit thin but people just click call with Qx so often that I think it's probably +EV.