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Old 02-20-2021, 12:42 PM   #1
sixsevenoff
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2/5 KQs Rivered Second Pair - Do You Go For Super Thin Value?

2/5, 7 handed, $500 effective. Villain has been at the table for about an hour and seems to be more or less loose passive. Hero has an aggressive, probably TAG image, if villain is paying attention at all.

OTTH

BTN straddles $10, hero opens $50 BB with K Q and only villain calls +2 (yes, this is UTG, but because it's 7 handed UTG is technically +2.)

Flop ($112): A 9 4. Hero bets $35-villain calls.

Turn ($182): 6. X-x.

River ($182): K. Do you go for a super thin, small value bet here?
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Old 02-20-2021, 12:58 PM   #2
Petrucci
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Re: 2/5 KQs Rivered Second Pair - Do You Go For Super Thin Value?

I doubt its much value to be had here against the vast majority of villains. Considering the amount that you will valueown yourself and get called a passively played Ax is not worth it in my opinion.

Unless villain is a 5 percent insanely loose fish that cant let go of any piece of the board, i would check and hope to win at showdown.
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Old 02-20-2021, 02:01 PM   #3
sixsevenoff
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Re: 2/5 KQs Rivered Second Pair - Do You Go For Super Thin Value?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Petrucci View Post
I doubt its much value to be had here against the vast majority of villains. Considering the amount that you will valueown yourself and get called a passively played Ax is not worth it in my opinion.

Unless villain is a 5 percent insanely loose fish that cant let go of any piece of the board, i would check and hope to win at showdown.
Yeah I felt like this might be too wide, but what if we bet something ridiculous like $35? It's probably too optimistic then, but I've been really trying to push every edge possible with thin value betting, probably over doing it a bit .
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Old 02-20-2021, 02:18 PM   #4
QuadJ
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Re: 2/5 KQs Rivered Second Pair - Do You Go For Super Thin Value?

It's a rather meh situation and depends on how good a read I have on villain. Villain isn't folding any pair for a flop range bet and probably floats with some garbage. Both the really good and really bad hands get discounted on the turn when villain checks. That results in villain having a wide range and hero probably beat more of it then you lose too. The problem you have on the river is that villain probably folds some of the worse hands now that there are 2 over cards but no better hands are folding. This makes it super thin and I would need enough history to be able to judge a river bet size where villain has trouble folding any pair.
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Old 02-20-2021, 03:48 PM   #5
Javanewt
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Re: 2/5 KQs Rivered Second Pair - Do You Go For Super Thin Value?

I don't think he's calling w/ worse, so I live w/ my showdown value. He might fold a weak A if you bet bigger, though
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Old 02-20-2021, 04:12 PM   #6
Balerion1
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Re: 2/5 KQs Rivered Second Pair - Do You Go For Super Thin Value?

Grunch

Vs loose passive id probably barrel turn and try to rep the Ace. If called give up and shut down on the river.

IME, going for thin value on this board is usually met with a call from an Ace and folds from 9x/TT/JJ that v can play this way.

But, loose passive opponents are the right archetype to go for thin value against. Making it $50-60 is an option as long as villain isn't tricky and is checking back Ax on the turn.

I think im talking myself into a blockish/thinish value bet, however, when called i do expect to loose some % of the time to an Ax.

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Old 02-20-2021, 04:32 PM   #7
venice10
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Re: 2/5 KQs Rivered Second Pair - Do You Go For Super Thin Value?

If you create a thread to discuss whether you should make a thin value bet on the river, it is probably too thin.
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