This was originally posted in the low stress strat thread, but I want to hear more opinions on this.

2/5, 9 handed, $700 effective. Villain is an obvious rec, way overplayed KT on a AK222 run out in a mw limped pot. We did see him raise turn one hand with the nuts IP after flopping it and just flatting flop, on a 864Jx board. Hero has an aggressive image.

OTTH

Villain limps UTG, tight passive limps +1, loose passive limps HJ, not limps BTN, hero raises $45 SB K Q, and only villain calls.

Flop ($110): 8 5 4. We bet $80, villain raises to $160. Hero?

Should we have bet smaller/checked flop?

I like the squeeze. Flop is a check since I think it hits V’s range harder and we’re oop.

AP I can find a fold here though I’m not sure I could fold my nutted Ax’s draws. I just hate calling here when we’re drawing thin plenty of times and oop while certain to face turn aggression. Even if we hit I’m not sure we’ll get paid unless he has a set.

I bet flop smaller fo sho. AP, obvious call is obvious, imo. He's unlikely to be able to get away if you hit.

Edit after seeing post above: V has 2p or a set most of the time after UTG l/c and raising this board, imo.

Our flop sizing needs to decrease. This flop is so much better for a limp/call range than a 9x sb raise. We never really have 55 or 44 here, whereas villain always does, along with 88. V has a bunch more 76 than us too. We likely have no combos of that. V also has more 54 two pairs than us. We're at a huge nut disadvantage, meaning our sizing should be small here.

Anyways, once we're clicked back to here LOL to folding. We have 31% equity vs straights, sets & 2p. Given stack sizes, a shove isn't awful, but probably not the best. We have 575 left after we put out the 80, right? Using the red-chip FE calculator, we will profit on a shove if V folds 28% of his range. If he has some A8, maybe K8s here and we get those to fold, we do show immediate profit. However, given our large sizing, his click-back is likely skewed towards value, so I'd probably just call & hope for a free river if we wiff turn.

Perhaps folding is conservative but it’s not Lol and this is a very close spot. Just how are we getting to a free river oop here with 450 in the pot after we call? We’re 700 eff and the money is going in on the turn since there’s only a psb left.

If we whiff the turn we get 2-1 to call down his Jam and we’d be drawing very thin. This seems gross to me.

I like your idea of jamming if we’re not folding as the money is going in and I’d rather have some Fe against the bottom of his range

Just complete pre; why would you want to play a massive pot oop with this hand?

Unless you strongly suspect villain is ****ing around, you should just call since you are getting good odds to chase your flush.

Folding pre is out of the question. Are you seriously only raising AQ+, JJ+ in this spot? This gets folded around a majority of the time, and the next most frequent result is HU...

Folding to this raise otf is out of the question as well... We are getting direct odds to hit our flush...

So what are y'all going on flop? $50ish?

What does everyone think about just 3 bet jamming? Villain's got 99-JJ presumably in his range based off of population tendencies, which we are favored against...Also I doubt villain is playing 76s or 54s like this pre. It also let's us realize all of our equity.

If we were to just call the raise though, that's one of the only spots where I'd lead the turn if we hit our flush. I feel like too often that'll get checked back too often, and then if another spade comes on the river and we don't get paid. However, he'd definitely call the turn with a set and probably call an all in otr if the fourth spade doesn't come.

Heads-up as played, I might just shove. In this spot, with his sizing, I think you have pretty decent FE against possible freeze-plays with for instance small overpairs or 87 type hands that are trying to buy two cards with one minraise.

Edit: Oh wait, you don't really need FE against these hands, because you’re obviously ahead... Hmm. Then maybe call and see what happens on the turn is better? The thing is I would still hate to call, miss twice and have him turn over 87 on the river... I would feel sort of owned, I guess.

Not a fan of the big cbet by the way.

I wouldn't jam in 2/5. This guys has an UTG limp/call range, you absolutely can't rule out 22-88 as well as Axs(though obviously less likely due to your holdings).

I agree with you on the call and evaluate on the turn. I'd lead the turn where you make your flush, but it's a gross spot if he raises you.

I never c-bet less than half pot, especially on a wet board, so I'd make sure I bet half pot. Don't want to give off a bet-size tell and perhaps get raised off our draw. OTOH, just large enough to fold out whiffed aces and PPs < 8 is optimal. $55-60, imo.

I think check-rizzle is a solid line a healthy portion of the time on this kind of board too.

We just have a ton of giveups combos when raising from the blinds on this kind of boards with many big overcards type of hands that are uncomfortable betting. Then we can get wider ranges from our villain to put in money with a flop stab, before we put in the often unexpected check-raise when they expect us to check-give up.

Edit: we also shrink our positional disadvantage with a check-raise here+ having plays like this in our arsenal makes our overall ranges more complete.

Yeah, I like that too. If it checks through and we get a free card, bonus!