Ditto

^^ Can you guys break this out a bit in terms of the range you think he is 4! with and of that range what he will call our shove?

I mentioned I was close on the fence but think it's a deep sigh fold, but maybe the ranges I'm thinking about for a rando cold 4! are off.

Did some napkin math: If you give V a range of QQ+, AK, AQ and give AA combos about a 50% higher likelihood, this is a strong EV shove. If you give AA combos about a 75% higher likelihood, it's a +EV shove. If you give it a 100% higher likelihood, it's a pretty neutral EV shove. If AA is like 30% of V's range it's a marginal fold, and If AA is like 50% of V's range here then it's obviously a slam dunk fold.

I'm not sure how much more likely the combos of AA are here because you have the wild card of the BB possibly targeting the rec BTN who he may perceive as 3b'ing a bit wider than a normal tight LLNL 3b range.

Close enough for me to be in the jam camp but I'm OK with a fold. I don't think it's a layup either way. Calling obviously not an option.

Thank you all -

Results -

I tanked for a long time - maybe 2 minutes just watching at BB, he was so comfortable, and looked at btn who didn't look like would fold. I ended up folding.

Btn did go allin with AKs, BB snapped with AA.

Board ran bricks.

In theory it is close. In combination with the live reads, I think you made a good fold.

Could you please elaborate on why it cannot be correct?

Because in the range you gave (QQ+, AKs and AK) we have excellent equity versus everything except AA. So folding cannot be correct vs that range unless a huge amount of the distribution is weighted toward AA.

Ahh, you overlooked the "50%" frequency. my format wasn't very clear to be fair

The breakeven range is
100% AA, KK, AKs
50% AKo, QQ

which isn't too surprising as we have exactly 50% equity against that.

Ok fair enough. But we shouldn't fold getting 50% equity as the pot has $$ in it already which gives us an overlay. The above only works if someone open shoves and we are next to act.

good fold - it's like 80% of the aces - other 20% of the time it's queens.

Depends on how tight the BTN is 3betting here. If he is very tight - which should be reasonable for a Rec - that compensates the dead money.