PSB = Pot Sized Bet

Reads: Young LAG. Seems decent, like a good hand reader and someone who adjusts to different players. Pretty aggro post flop and loose pre flop. Has shown at least one certain bluff on the river. Has limp/raised JJ against a raiser and a few callers. He's got about $1000 to start, I've got ~$650.

My Image: Good, solid TAG. I'm the newest player at the table, been here for about 3 hours. I don't think I've shown down a single hand, but am up a little and have been tight pre flop.

I open UTG 9-handed to $25 with KK. Folds to villain in the BB who flats.

Flop: 422. Villain check/raises my $30 bet to $80. I flat.

Turn: 4227. Check/check.

River: 42275 and villain bets $225. Hero?

I will post my thought process on previous streets if anyone comments on them (and feel free to).

Glech. I guess I call, since he's laggy enough to be turning a lesser overpair into a bluff here, and he knows that this board is scary as the SS--guards in Castle Wolfenstein.

If he's a good hand reader, he should understand that your UTG open range is pretty tight. Say, TT+ AK, AQ, maybe.

So what does he think you'll do with an overpair on a flop with a 2-flush? He probably thinks you'll bet a bit bigger than 60% of pot. So, even though you could say that your flop bet is a somewhat standard size, I'd argue that given V description, he's attacking what he perceives as weakness because your smallish bet in his eyes skews your range more to AK/AQ type hands and less over pairs are in your range.

There's also a chance that he's made this play with a smaller overpair to the board that, after seeing your bet, he decides favors to be better than your hand.

All that is to say that even though by the river he can have flushes and boats in his range, I think the flop dynamic, coupled with the fact that you checked back the turn (I might consider a turn bet for value) means that you've shown enough weakness along the way to make this a call, because this is the type of player that attacks weakness.

River bet sizing also looks more like he wants a fold rather than value.

*g*

I guess I call even though it freaking sucks here. I feel like he has a lot of JJ-66 (minus 77) and then maybe even some suited connectors that he was getting cute with. If he's laggy enough to make the play... the flip side is that he has the nuts and he checked the turn thinking you'd bet after your flop call haha.

I still call.

Ugly. A really tough spot.

If he is check raising his draws on the flop to move you off your cbet air, it should be obvious you have a big pair.

If he's good, he is going for max value with his flush (after hoping you bet the turn), or even A3 that got there on the river, and he think you can't fold a big pair.

If he's not as good, he is trying to bluff you with some trash or lesser underpair.

I feel like we are beat here a lot, but I can't really fault with a call, and I'd have a tough time laying it down in the moment. It's so read dependent.

his check back on the turn is very suspect from that type of player who is pretty aggro post. I think I could talk myself into a fold. He might want the psb to look like a bluff.

I'm folding here and moving to get position on this player....

That's a pretty strong play...the check on the turn is pretty suspect and would actually be a big indicator of strength. If his plan was to bluff you, he'd probably continue on the turn with aggression. Considering that he's a thinking player, he has to put you on a big overpair once you call his raise. Just looks like a turned nut flush or boat...you really don't have a range on him either so wait for a better spot.

Good players will get bluffed occasionally because they're able to lay down hands in spots like these.

Call. Why didn't you bet turn when V checks to you? Seems like an easy value bet. This line from V looks super bluffy.

Grunch

Call, he's betting a 2 or boat on the turn IMO... He views you as tag and thinks you'll fold... I would have bet turn if I was you. As played I call. I'd have bet 1/2 to 2/3 pot on turn fwiw

I've been thinking about this hand for some reason, and if your image is rock solid, and your read is correct that he is a thinking player who can hand read and adjust, then it's kind of a interesting spot to re-steal.

His range is pretty capped. He never has a flopped boat. No young LAG check raises a monster like that on the flop. And even if there is a TINY chance he would do that, he would bet the turn, hoping you had hit the flush or would continue calling down with less. I just don't see it.

I suppose there is a tiny chance that he backed into a monster with 55 or 77 after trying to move you off a flop that misses your range, but that is also quite unlikely.

Almost all of his range here is air or and draws that hit when he was semi-bluffing the flop.

There is a decent chance that his river bet is pot sized to look bluffy because he wants a call, because he hit his flush, or doesn't think you have the flush because he assumes you would have bet the turn.

Even with a flush, a thinking player is going to have a really hard time calling a raise. Maybe he could make a crying call with the nut flush, maybe. But even then, he has to think you are capable of shipping with a K high flush or worse, and hardly any solid tight player is EVER doing that on a paired board.

I think you can fold out 90% of his river value betting range with a shove (or $200 on top might look even stronger.) Yes, you are repping pretty thin. You are saying you have a boat or maybe the nut flush, and I concede it doesn't really make sense that you would play these hands this way. But it makes even less sense for a TAG to be bluffing in this spot.

Am I crazy here? I admit that probably wouldn't come up with this plan in real time, but as someone who plays mostly TAG-nit and is used to getting a ton of credit from thinking players, I think this works.

Results: I called and he showed AQs for the nut flush to win.