V is an extremely laggy Indian guy who's run it up to $1600 and is now down to $800-$1k because of some hero-calling, bluffing, etc. I remember a hand where he called a triple barrel on 567x9 boat and mucked his hand against JJ that thin-value bet three streets. Saw him raise $25 in EP with J4ss once and bet three streets when he turned a flush against some weak/passive rec. He seems decent and capable overall. He seems to be calling pretty wide pre too.

Hero has a $800 stack, lost a buyin earlier and is now grinding it up. Playing tight/aggressive. Raising/cbetting/3betting, etc. Hardly any showdowns.

Onto the hand...

EP raise to 20... Hero makes it 65 next to act... V calls OTB... EP calls

Flop (200)... 467cc
EP checks... Hero bets 125... V calls... EP folds

Turn (450)... 7s
Checks around

River (450)... Ad
Hero checks... V bets 240... Hero ???

We may have "let him get there" by checking the turn.

Pot is offering us 3 to 1 to find out.

How many hands is our Villain calling on the button for $65 pre flop that have a 7 in them?

(A rhetorical question that argues for betting the turn.)

Now? If we think our Villain is bluffing at least 1/3 of the time we make a crying call.

Why didn't you bet the turn?

The 7 on the turn didn't change the hand. Should have bet turn. Maybe he still calls with a random AX (AX for example), but at least you charge him.

Bet turn and then what?

what do you mean then what.

shove turn.

Turn was pot control, partly because villain is capable of bluff raising the turn, also he is likely to bluff if we check to him. I guess we were praying for a non club, non ace river, and we were going to let villain bluff his missed draws. Maybe we would have bet for value figuring our turn check deleveraged but if villain is capable of bluff raising the turn he should be able to do it on the river. Am I in the ballpark?

As played, soul read, probably call. He can have so many hands we beat and we are getting 3:1.

I think it's an easy call.

First though, bet that turn for value.

On the turn, you get calls from 5x, 55, (33?), clubs, 88-JJ, 98, maybe T9, T8, etc. So much value.

The 7 pairing doesn't really change much.

The river is a call. For value, he mostly has two pair Ax, AcXc one pair, and A5. That's an awful lot of combos. But this V can also have all sorts of club hands and 5x and also be turning some made hands into bluffs, intentionally or not, like the 55, 33, 88, etc.

Thinking about his range, he has an awful lot of hands with no showdown value. Do you have the K of clubs? I don't think it matters though - I think this is a call.

If you don't have the king of clubs, it's even more of a call because that gives villain a bunch of extra flush draws assuming he is super loose on the BTN pre and peels with basically all non-AK KcXc.

You don't always win, but yes, it's actually a very easy call getting almost 3:1.

grunch: call

judging by the price, i think we let him get there with that A but... the price is good and i'd want to look him up. we prob should have bet the turn though. nothing big... just don't give out free cards.

Easy call imo.

I think it's pretty likely that lag-master here would bomb the flop if he had any Acxc or combo draw or of course any made hand. And he would almost certainly bet the turn if he had a 7 as well.

So if that's true, what's left that he could have now? A5s? AQ/AJ hands that floated the flop?

I think he shows up with so many missed flush draws & lower pairs that he's turning into a bluff (even though we know that move would be terribad) that this is basically a snap call.

With so many missed draws, this is a call. We checked turn and river to induce, so now call.

I think you need to bet 180 on the flop and shove the turn. I understand not wanting to, with only one pair. But I still think it's pretty mandatory. Otherwise it's just so profitable for him to play something like Axcc against you because you're always giving the free card.

As played, it seems like you're afraid to play a big pot, so you might have induced a bluff.

Unless he bets any ace, I'm not sure why the ace should change any thing.

Would you continuation bet AK, and then check the turn?

You're probably good the 26% of the time you need to be good.

I understand betting larger on the flop, but are we bet-calling then? Our hand is pretty face up as an OP, so only a set/big combo draw is shoving over our ~PSB on the flop.

I would cbet ~$125 with AK here, so I don't want to cbet $180 with KK here and give out a sizing tell.

Turn is just pot control. Suited connectors like 7x are easily in their ranges. If we bet again, what's the river plan?

OP reread your reads/history on the villain and see that he likes to hero call down so just bet bet bet. Don't play fancy, he shouldnt ever have air OTT.

This . If he's calling that wide just value town him

If you think they often have trips, then since on the river you have less than trips, you should probably fold. But if you think they're calling 7x on the flop, then you should bet larger, because most turns are going to be scare cards where you won't be able to get value. But there's far more combos of draws then there is of 7x.

In general I think that someone who checks the turn, and is now planning on calling this river is really easy to play against. You gave the Villain great odds to draw to improve, and now you're planning on giving him implied odds as well.

If the Villains haven't adjusted to you, they will soon.

If you want to play a pot 1/3rd the size, just call pre, or buy in shorter.

I really think the river is, by far, the least interesting part of this hand where you decided to ask people on the internet to guess the Villain's hand -- as if becoming an expert guesser is what poker is about.

Long story short: The flop is wet which means Villains could easily have the equity to call a large bet. Make them do it. Then shove the turn. Sometimes you'll lose, but you'll win more often than you lose.

As played maybe he's bluffing 31% of the time and you should call. Maybe he's bluffing 21% of the time and you should fold. But what's far more than guessing his exact bluffing frequency is the value you're not getting by giving free cards.

As played I'd call because you're begging him bluff by not betting the ace or the turn. Also, call because that cuts down on further bluffs. Also, it doesn't make any sense for him to draw to an ace, except you gave it to him on the turn. You've got to bet the turn way to many draws to just check.