one of our goals in poker is to not be results oriented, I would like to hear avitaras response

oh ok. you should certainly ignore it.

If your line on the turn is the opponent is fos, then I don't mind the call so much. My problem was that calling the turn and not planning on calling the river on a blank felt like the turn is just you hemorrhaging money. I can't imagine his line being much different if he had the best hand.

TL;DR!!!!

Look. I know this is a beginners forum so many do not think like this, but most hand histories should be thought of in a very straightforward mechanical way. All of the typical "what should I do" "oh you should do this" is just huge noise.

I'll focus on flop and river.

Here is me fixing your op:

So you see, this way you create what is called a sensitivity analysis. We can all give "correct" answers based on each range, add or subtract from ranges, etc. There is not one single answer. The answer is a spectrum depending on variables. To know the answer we must understand the spectrum.

Once you've done this enough, and put in enough volume, these scenarios become second nature. I know that on an open ender rainbow flop I have ~25% equity vs. only sets and the suited open ender combos.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

12,870 trials (Exhaustive)

board: T73

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
TT,77,33,9x8x	74.18%	9,547	0
KdKc	25.82%	3,323	0

I also know that I'd rather bluff catch with JTs here, for the reasons Minatorrr mentioned. Do you know how big the difference is? Guess before your spoiler.



I also know live player tendencies, and their tendency is to call WAY too much and to only show aggression with the nuts. This changes slightly as you move up, you see "better" aggression and you also see more button clicking. But the truth is that most at this level would be better served if they bet folded everything but the nuts or huge nut draws.

In my first post I was originally going to say "either this shouldn't be a post or you should make a ridiculous fold on the flop" and what I would have meant by that is that results confirmed a range* or that we should stick with bolded above and just assume they always have it until proven otherwise**

*results can be important. People misunderstand "don't be results oriented" It doesn't mean to ignore that villain showed up with Q9 (or whatever) here. That is actually really important. We now know he check raised Range 3 and therefore we should basically never fold to him again.

**this is really important. Once you have data that confirms a looser range (either from showdown or from noticing their frequencies (high check/raising freq. for example), then you can adjust. But these guys will make up like 5-10% of your pool below 5/10. Everyone else just PLAYS SUPER FACE UP AND TELLS YOU WHAT THEY HAVE. Its insane really. They just do.

Just the other day I opened AA 4x utg and mp tight player called. Flop 223r. I half pot he insta 5x raises. Guess what he had. A4/5s? NOPE. 45s? NOPE. Weird value raise with QQ? NOPE. He had 33 because of course he ****ing had 33 he ****ing told me so when he 5x raised flop no matter how terrible that is.

Remember this adage for live poker <5/10:

Aggression is strength.

As for river, we can call flop, and fold on unchanged turns, and call turns and fold on unchanged rivers. This is because of frequencies.

So say for example he did check raise range 3 on the flop:

Range 3 (Aggro):

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

32,670 trials (Exhaustive)

board: T73

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
TT,77,33,9x8x,5x6x,4x5x,Jx9x,Qx9x,QxJx	39.31%	12,844	0
KdKc	60.69%	19,826	0

On the turn, he's not betting 100% of this range. Well, if he's bad he might. It would look like this:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

1,364 trials (Exhaustive)

board: T733

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
TT,77,33,9x8x,5x6x,4x5x,Jx9x,Qx9x,QxJx	30.72%	419	0
KdKc	69.28%	945	0

But a "good" player does not continue with 100% of his flop check raising range. He's betting portions of it at certain frequencies. Say a "good" player gives up most of his non-club non gutshots.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

528 trials (Exhaustive)

board: T733

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
TT,77,33,9c8c,4c5c,5c6c,Qc9c,Jc9c	66.48%	351	0
KdKc	33.52%	177	0

So you see we have to think about his range and how it narrows and what his equity is and what rivers improve him etc. etc.

This means there are times when we can call turn but fold river even when it is a blank. Because his turn betting range is wider than his river betting range. So the phrase "if you call turn you have to call river" is grossly misused.

Taking a look at the river:

We are getting pot odds of $1337:$580, or high level a little better than 2:1 (which is all you need to do) We need to be good ~30% of the time.

If he's a bad player, who check raised Range 3, and then barreled 100% of it on 3 streets, we have a really easy call:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

30 trials (Exhaustive)

board: T7334

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
TT,77,33,9x8x,5x6x,4x5x,Jx9x,Qx9x,QxJx	36.67%	11	0
KdKc	63.33%	19	0

Vs. a better player, its a fold, as he's dropped a lot from his range, and 56 got there:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

10 trials (Exhaustive)

board: T7334

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
TT,77,33,9c8c,4c5c,5c6c	80.00%	8	0
KdKc	20.00%	2	0

Disclaimers

-This is all super high level. We could say that villain 3bets TT a portion of the time pre, flat calls sets a portion of the time post, etc. This would weaken his flop check raising range bc it removes some of the set combos.

-I wouldn't fold flop. Especially to a 5/10 player who looks bored and showed down Q6. But I also consider myself an above average player and am fully prepared for each turn based on card/timing/sizing. Most aren't, and therefore should fold flop. It not as big a mistake as many would think.

-this is 2008 poker. This isn't thinking about GTO and what portions of our range we should fold/continue with on flop/turn/river based on sizing. Bc that is a waste of knowledge in regards to live poker.

-I'm tired. There's a lot more to it than this (and I was very one directional in a lot of this also), and there may be errors in above.

Cliffs:

FOLD EVERYTHING BUT THE NUTS TO AGGRESSION UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE

peace

of course we want JT here

but the point is this guy is spewing his stack and giving it away and we happen to have KK, this guy is so wide we can call with our whole range actually, but yes JT is the nut bluffcatcher

you forgot he might actually turn stuff like A7 into a bluff and T7 too

Additional disclaimer as it was apparently not clear enough or too many words to realize what i said in the end:

I did not provide an answer in this post. I did not "forget" A7. I provided the method for pouring through range analysis and gave a bit of personal insight into what i would lean that range towards.

My ranges are samples, not answers, and it is your own prerogative to create what you believe to be the most accurate range or range categories. Then you can all discuss at your leisure.

However, one of the more common leaks i see is "fitting a range", or coming up with hands villain can have to make us want to call. They are almost always assuming too wide.

Guy has JJQQ at some freq depending on his overall strat for this game. That throws a pretty big wrench into things if you're looking for the merits of JT>KK.

While I don't think as 'high-level' it's a fold for me on the river. 2 main reasons.

1. Your hand looks super face up as an overpair and I don't know many thinking Villains that think they are going to often (at 2/5) bluff someone off an overpair on such a disconnected board.

2. The river 4 doesn't get much of anything there, so I have a hard time believing he thinks he can bluff you when you called flop/turn.


I would expect to see a 3x often here. Sure he is sometimes 3 barrelling a bluff, but that just seems super unprofitable in the long run on this type of board and run-out.

Wait. Didn't V give up river and check in your vlog?

Thanks. I appreciate that response way more than "fold flop". And I agree with you completely that the can't call turn fold river thinking is wrong because of the bluffs that give up the river some % of the time.

He did. But the turn call is super easy and if the handed played out that way it would not be worthy of discussion. A river shove on a relative blank would be so I tweaked it.


Question now is...if the river is a jack instead and he checked...can we go for thin value?

Avaritia - thank you for taking the time to post all of that....much appreciated.
Thanks !

Grunch:

Snap call river, not close

I think even GTO would want hero to fold KK on the river. AA would be the borderline (not that there's much of a difference between the two except blocking A3s).

I mean you'll be good the vast majority of the time but doubt he calls with worse. This also means it would be a great spot to turn Tx into a bluff.

Grunch:

I can't see him betting worse for value, so it's not a snap call. The only value hands I can see are 77, 33, and 65s for 7 combos. A3 is out because why raise flop, TT would almost always 3bet. 44 wouldn't raise flop.

The main bluff hands I see are 98s and a few backdoor club combos. QJcc, AJcc. There aren't many.

We need about 30% equity to call, so we only need a few bluff combos to call. I could definitely see this player raising with a random bdfd and deciding the runout was good enough to triple barrel.

Folding KK here is super exploitable and I don't think we should do it without a strong read the player's a nit. We have the opposite read, so I call.

Edit: Really nice post Avaritia