Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCake
Omg please never fold to him here. People get crazy with JJ and QQ here all the time. Plus 45 56 46 and even 99 TT
Lets just prove it with math also:
$485 in the pot. $185 to call. This means that you need to be good here 1:2.61 times.
Sample range that is likely way too tight:
Board: 2c 6d 4h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.603% 33.82% 00.78% 28128 648.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 65.397% 64.62% 00.78% 53736 648.00 { QcQd, QcQh, QcQs, 66, 44, 22, 6c5c, 6h5h }
And we're winning 1:1.88 times.
(clearly a call)
This range simulates any 3 combinations of overpairs (which isn't even all the possible combinations of any one overpair, i.e. QQ has 6 possible ways to make it, and we're only saying he playing QQ like this half the time), two combinations of a semi bluff (65s for pair, gut shot, and back door flush) and sets. Clearly we're getting the right price. If he plays every combination of any over pair like this (all 6 combinations) our equity jumps significantly.
Board: 2c 6d 4h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.522% 43.74% 00.78% 44166 792.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 55.478% 54.69% 00.78% 55230 792.00 { QQ, 66, 44, 22, 6c5c, 6h5h }
Winning 1:1.24 times.
(clearly a call)
And if he never bluffs, but has 1 overpair in his range and all flopped straight with suited cards we're still doing great given the price we're getting:
Board: 2c 6d 4h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.961% 33.23% 00.73% 37500 828.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 66.039% 65.31% 00.73% 73704 828.00 { QQ, 66, 44, 22, 53s }
Winning 1:1.94 times.
(still clearly a call)
So, yeah, don't ever fold here. But I'm sorry you lost.