$2/$5 game played at 5am Monday morning, 5-handed.

Hero ($550) - Early 20s WG. Nit image. Often folds BB against 3x open. Hasn't been caught bluffing yet.

Villain ($600) - Late 20s Asian guy. Loose image, a bit on the station side but not overly spewy.

Hero is dealt Ks Jd
V limps $5 UTG
H raises $20 CO
Villain calls $20

Flop ($43, HU) is Th 8h 4s

V checks
H bets $40
V calls $40

Turn ($115, HU) is 6d

V checks
H checks

River ($115, HU) is Qs
V bets $30
H ???

Is it worth bluff raising this river?

What were you trying to represent when you check the turn, and raise river? If u had set of queens, you're betting the turn, also overpairs. Don't like the flop size as well, you are toasted if you are being c/r w KJo no heart in your hand

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Mainly repping J9 and AQ but yeah I see your point that we can't rep too much with a large river raise.

The whole point of the flop bet is that we don't have much equity here, so it's an easy bet/fold. I'd be much more inclined to check back the flop with some showdown value hands like JT, but KJ has very little showdown value unless we hit runner runner, so I'd prefer to just take a stab now.

That flop texture hits his limp calling range pretty hard especially considering his image..probably has lot of SC's and gappers. Easy river fold (small bet sizing looks like a classic value bet...he knows your weak after you go check check)

Villain is HJ.

Bet much less on the flop or check. You're really just trying to fold out his air, so 1/3-1/2 sizing is better, I think.

Checking turn is good after getting called for a PSB on the flop and not picking up any equity.

It's hard to decide what hands to raise on the river because villain's are so imbalanced and it's not clear which hands they're folding to a raise or even betting in the first place. I guess the strongest relatively common hand he b/c on the river is QJ and it's good that you block that. However blockers aren't really that important because villain is likely just way overcalling here or way overfolding. IME these bets are very weak and typically b/f. I'd raise to $150 and expect to take it down more than the 50% required.

We rep AQ/KQ/Q8s/QT/J9. Not sure why you'd say we don't rep anything since the Q isn't really a brick for Hero's range. However we should focus less on what we rep against someone who isn't likely thinking that deeply and more on what we think villain has and how he feels about it. We are repping a good hand and villain is playing his cards.

Results:

increase your turn barreling frequency next time, if 90% u fire flop, check turn you're easily readable or spewing

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I'm not sure why you're pot size betting flop with pretty much air? I think if you bet flop, you pretty much have to commit to double barreling the turn with the nit image (does V think you have nit image?)

If just cbetting, would make it $25, and another $40 on the turn. If V doesn't give up, it's a c/f on river.

You also said V is a bit of a station. Doesn't that mean betting with air is a bad idea in general unless you have the nuts or a draw to the nuts?

That's the point, there are many bad reg will often c bet flop, check back turn. Noted it will bleed money in long term, one of the leaks. If you weren't sure about firing turn, why not just check back flop play gto

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I don't like raising in funny spots like this... I feel like V's sizing is inviting a raise, and most V's know this, so usually it's a bet/call on his side. If he bet like $50-60, I'd have an easier time getting behind a bluff raise.

I love results-oriented comments like this.

What do you think V’s range was when doing this? Like, raise if you think there’s a lot of hands like 89 or 9T.. But in general, villains will almost never make sized down river bets with hands like that - and if they are the type that do, you’ll see them doing this constantly.

The reality is that 1/4 pot bets are usually weaker than 1/2 pot bets and are more likely to fold to big raises. At least that works as a general rule.

0 reason to pot the flop

When he called did you yell at him? You got induced by the live fish, standard af. As fundamentally sound as you want your line to be, you’re gonna get murked in a live game doing so.

Even people who induce with this sizing usually don't do it often enough to discourage us from raising them aggressively.

$200 is excessive, I think.

It’s not the sizing that would have me worried, it’s the step down in bet size postflop. Fish tend to think in absolute bet size, not size relative to pot. That’s why you’ll see them sometimes bet the same thing every street. But when they bet 40 on the flop then 30 on the river, their reason for doing so usually isn’t to announce that they think their hand is weaker than it was before... There are some people that are constantly trying to set their own lower price with top pair bad kicker, second pair, third pair, gutshots, whatever. I relentlessly raise those people.... If this seems like an out of the ordinary thing for this villain, especially the step down in bet size, I’m not gonna try to mess with it, and will just let go of my K high feeling I don’t have correct pot odds to call.

+1 to prev poster stating small betsize does not mean weakness.

I think the premise of OP: "Can I raise the river to get him off the hand" is a bit flawed because it only looks at the river bet as an indicator to raise. As others said before, turn check is incredibly weak after potting flop and if he's a thinking player, it's an easy call, if he's a fish then it's an easy call for him too because he has a piece of the board.

Also, hero is not repping J9. If hero got a nit image, then J9 isn't really much of the range shorthanded because we don't often play multiway and more heads up so high card value goes up. A nit also checks back open-ender on flop alot

I don't think it is worth bluffing here. The small river bet is trying to get money out of a nit that shut down after getting a cbet called. Villain could be taking a stab with a missed FD and figures your hand is weak and won't call. If he is wrong, it's only $30. If you think villain is capable of this then raise small, an amount that looks like you want a call. Your nit image should get a fold out of Ace high and smaller pairs.

That said, villain probably hit a Queen after calling flop with a flush draw or some weird 2p combos. QT makes sense; Q8, Q4 may have continued after pairing on the flop. Whatever happened here, it smells like Qx. A river bet bluff I expect most villains to go half pot or thereabouts, not quarter pot.

When you check the turn and want to bluff-raise river ... well ...,that will never work because you don't have a credible story. Your representation should have been done on the turn and see the "second-action" of villain to your turn bet. That "second-action" is the most reliable information any player can get.

If you are not familiar with the "second-action" concept I must stop right here because I have no mental energy to educate the masses.

Without a heart I'm not cbetting this flop, and definitely not potsized.

I raise as well (particularly with a tight image), but 120 accomplished the same thing (having a villain muck his T9 or 98).

Why would I barrel turn when my PSB OTF got called on a wet board and the turn is an undercard that doesn't give me any additional equity?

I would definitely barrel turn if a 9, J, Q, K or A came.

Cause you have K high.

You're saying check back turn and doltily click buttons repping zero on the river is a better line?

To a villain that limp/called pre

Flop: Check > bet half pot > bet full pot (prefer check here because he’s gonna show up with a lot of hands like 78 or 9T and random heart draws that will need 3 barrels to get folds by river)

AP, turn: Bet 95 > check > bet 60 (we should be able to get a lot of his flop calling range to fold to a second decent sized barrel, but we absolutely need to plan a third barrel on river to fold out stuff like 78)

AP, river: Fold > raise to 120 > raise to 200