Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragequit99
Sorry, not being difficult - I think we're saying the same thing basically. What I was trying to get across is it depends entirely how villain responds to the 3bet. I think the dynamic of hero looking loose and overly aggro (from running hot) is a good time to open the 3betting range. Flatting a loose opener when you also look loose is liable to draw a wider than normal squeeze (usually from LP players) which is going to make JJ hard to play postflop regardless of how wide the squeeze is.
yes, we're saying relatively the same thing. reads and such play a part, yada, yada, yada...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragequit99
Also, depending on 15% openers raise size and our 3bet size, JJ is ahead of a GTO style defending vs 3bet range so I disagree 3betting JJ vs 15% open is automatically -EV.
tl;dr disclaimer: boring GTO stuff below...
this is wrong. GTO speaking, JJ is a bluff vs a ~15% range vs a typical ~3.5x open 100bb deep. as such, it's better served calling rather than 3 betting.
but anyway assume:
-V opens to 3.5bb,
-we would 3bet to 12bb with value and bluffs
-V 4bets to 27bb with smaller mix of value hands and bluffs or V folds
-we 5 bet all in with a smaller mix of value hands and bluffs or we fold
first we need to find the optimal 3bet/4bet/5bet %
Vs optimal 4 bet%
there is 1.5+3.5=5bb in the pot and we 3bet to 12bb. we're getting effective pot odds of 5:12. so we need to win 12/(5+12)=70% for this to be profitable. so if V folds more than 70%, we're auto profiting by 3betting ATC. for GTO V needs to 4bet enough to prevent this.
Vs optimal 4betting strategy is to 4bet 30% his opening range. he'll 4bet with hands he will call a 5 bet with (value) and hands he'll to a 5 bet (bluffs)
Our 3betting range
V 4bets to 27, risking 23.5bb to win 17bb. Vs effective pot offs for the 4bet bluffs are 17:23.5. V can autoprofit 4betting ATC (of hands he opened), if we fold our 3bet more than 23.5/(23.5/17)=58%
We can't allow V to 4bet bluff ATC profitably, so we defend optimally by folding 58% of the time and 5betting AI 42% of the time.
but going forward, we'll round it to our optimal 3bet value/bluff should be 40/60. this doesnt tell us how much we should 3 bet though. to figure that out, we need to figure out our 5bet range.
We'll want to 5bet hands with 30% equity when called, which is A5s-A2s, so when called we have ~30% equity of a 201.5bb pot where we invested 88bb with our 5bet. 30% equity of 201.5bb = 60bb, our net loss is 88-60 = 28bb
before the 5bet, the pot was 40.5bb (1.5+27+12), so we're risking 28bb to win 40.5, effective pot odds are 40.5:28 and we need to win 28/(28+40.5)=40% to profit from 5bet bluffing
so Vs 4bet range is going to be 60/40 and they will 4bet 30% of his opening range
V1 opens to 3.5bb
V1s opening range (14.03%, 186 combos)
{22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AJo+, KJo+}
he'll have to defend 30% of that range against a 3bet to be GTO. so 4bet value/bluff is going to be 60/40.
he'll 4bet .6*.3=18% for value
he'll 4bet .4*.3=12% as a bluff
value: 18% of 186 = 33 combos => {QQ+,AK} is 34 combos
bluff: 12% of 186 = 22 combos => {AQ, JJ} is 22 combos
We 3 bet to 12bb
to profitably 3/5bet against that range, we need hands that have 50% equity against {QQ+,AK}. AA does, KK has 57%, QQ has 40%, AK has 39%, so our 3/5 bet value range should be {KK+}
we'll also 3/5bet some bluff hands (Axs), but how many???
V calls off his last 73bb to win 128.5 (1.5+27+100), pot odds are 128.5:73=1.76:1, so V needs 1/(1+1.76) = 36% equity against our overall 5 betting range
QQ (the bottom of his calling range) is 37.71% equity vs {KK+, A5s, A4s}
so our GTO 5 bet range is {KK+, A5s, A4s} =>20 combos
Our GTO 3 bet bluff range
so because we are 3/5betting 20 combos, we need to 3bet bluff 30 combos
based on the stregnth principle, we should
-bet/raise our stongest hands
-check/call our medium hands
-fold/bluff our weakest hands
the specific hands we 3bet/fold are irrrelevant, but just that are 30 combos, but we can surely find 30 combos of hands that arent {QQ-, AJ+, KQ}
all of this is just a GTO way of saying we should be flatting {QQ-TT, AJ+, KQ} Vs ~15% opening range if we want to play GTO
Last edited by johnny_on_the_spot; 06-15-2015 at 04:13 PM.