Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerIsTooEasy
Speaking generally (not specifically about this hand) just because you are short is no excuse for throwing value down the tubes. You are raising a super dry board and most 2/5 villains are not dumb enough to get it in here with one pair. In fact, most 2/5 villains lead this flop for information so that they can fold when you raise them. Villains lead asks "do you have AK" and when you raise you tell them "No, I have an overpair so let's get it in". It really depends on the villains and your image, but if your default is to simply raise because you are 60bbs deep effective then sometimes you are just burning money.
We can quibble over the exact meaning of "pretty much always," and there are certainly exceptions, but for the vast majority of cases, you're going to lose more value on 7/8s of turns than you're going to gain. Obviously there are a lot of spew monkeys out there where it's much better to leave money behind that they can bluff, and you can just call down regardless of run out, but this was so far from the case here that I didn't much consider it.
Also re: being "dumb enough" to get it in here with one pair, if you're playing someone who doesn't get it in here with one pair, then you should be shoving this flop a loooooottttttttt, and they will be absolutely, brutally exploited for folding that much. I would consider people who b/f 99 here the dumb ones.
Anyway, the point about the stack sizes isn't that it gives us an "excuse" for shoving here. It makes it so that our position on the turn is actually a disadvantage; it makes it so that we don't have to worry about how we react to a 3b; it makes it so that we're not getting more money in when we raise the flop than we do when we call the flop and bet the turn; etc.