Grand Villa Casino B.C. Canada
2/5 game $1k max buy-in

Hero: mid 20's male wearing glasses and a green hoodie. Just transferred to this, the main game, so not much to tell. Have been silent and only really chatted with my gf sitting behind me. Stack $1200

Villain: mid-late 30's large male, seems to be a staple at the table. One of the 3 at the table that have $2k+ in front of them. Saw him open in the SB with 2 limpers to 35 and take it down PF. Talks casually with what I assume are other regs. Stack ~$2000

On to the hand

9 handed, folds around to Hero in MP who opens for 20 with JJ, folds to Villain in SB who flats, rest fold.

Flop: $45
K4J

villain checks, hero bets 35, villain calls.

Turn: $115
K4JQ

villain donks out 45, hero...

Thanks in advance

Couple of questions:
1) Is villain going to donk bet AT here?
2) Do you know enough about your table for your pre-flop sizing? 4x seems smallish to me given how deep we are.

That being said, pot the flop. I really hate his donk bet OTT because it feels like he's blocking with weaker holdings and I wanted him to check so we could pot again. I like a raise to $145.

That donk bet is more likely to be QT making a blocking bet.

I would raise to $135 - $150ish

If V comes over the top, we make a crying call. Lots of 2pair combos in his range and we do have outs to beat AT or T9 gutter balls.

Or put another way, there are too many villains that bet broadway 2 pairs like the stone cold nuts for me to get tiny testicles in this spot.

Raise!

Tons of 2 pair combos in his range .

Bump it to $175

150ish

Hero takes about 5 seconds to push out a stack for a raise to 150. Villain tanks for 10 seconds before announcing "350" and pushing out chips. Hero...

this deep and witnessing him open to 35ish previously, I think you can do the same

On the flop for sure we are raising, so many two pair combos in his range and if he actually took a turn for broadway why would he donk it and not let you continue. He's flatting with tons of hands and there is value in a raise.

when he makes it 350 I would flat but interested to see what others say.

Most table opens without limps were 15-30 so my pfr was a bit on the small side and shoulda been at least 25+, but my first time at 2/5, other excuses, etc.

I'm raise/folding here. Raise to like 110-125, fold if he 3bets or shoves obviously.

Just the read post where you raise and he 3bets. IDK about flatting there, I don't like the idea of putting that much of our stack in to fold the river a large percent of the time unless we boat up. If we call it's basically a PSB to put us all in.

I fold here. Nit alert.

like the raise to around 150ish on the turn.

call now reevaluate river, would have made it bigger preflop so deep.

side note, maybe its just me but it seems that guys tend to try and outplay guys who bring their girl to the table, like they want to impress them or something, or is this just in my mind?

I was advocating a fold earlier but after thinking about it more folding just seems SO nitty. If we fold we are giving him a range of exactly A10, because we can eliminate KK and QQ most likely due to PF action. His value hands are 44, KQ, A10, QJ, KJ that he may go ape**** like this over and we smash that range... Hmm

Now ship it!

Can we get some more discussion on shipping the turn over his raise vs. flatting and re-evaluating. I'm interested in what people think here. I have some thoughts and initially thought flatting and then re-evaluating was best but now I am not sure.

Folding turn is bad. You're getting a little over 3-1 direct and you need like 3.3 to make the call without any implied odds.

Call turn.

Yeah call the turn here and be prepared to make a Hero fold OTR

What kind of cards and raise sizes are we calling OTR? Same with folding OTR? Just curious because that would make the PSR close to 1 OTR, if I added it right. I think we expect him to lead the river a good amount of the time. And since I think he's got a lot of 2pair in his range even if we boat up we are not good.

tbh I am not folding the river very often/if ever since his most likely hand is KQ but if a K/Q/A hits and he bombs it I'm probably giving him credit but if a K/Q hits and he ships it or an A/T hits and he confidently bets I'm giving him credit for some weird turned GS/rivered straight after making a move OTT.

Basically river cards that turn our hand into a bluff catcher on the river when he is likely never bluffing

Strongly disagree with the K or Q comment. He's betting a straight for sure still. Especially on a Q

What if the river is some non-broadway, like a 5 or some other blank card and he ships?

In my experience we won't see many pot size ships with straights when the board pairs OTR.

probably not folding to a small bet but if the river is a 5 and he ships it in I am not particularly fond of my life and lean towards folding where if the river bricks and he bets small I lean towards shipping.

Also villain might have some weirdly played 44.

So maybe I'm a donkey but I am inclined to fold to all ships on all non J rivers and inclined to ship over all non ships on all non A/T rivers.

Hero takes about 5 seconds to push out a stack for a raise to 150. Villain tanks for 10 seconds before announcing "350" and pushing out chips. Hero thinks for 15-20 (probably longer than I should have) and calls.

River: ~$815
K4JQ5

Villain glances at my stack, fiddles with his chips, and says "450," planting the stack of chips down. Hero...

Our hand could be AT more often than his and he is raising turn an betting river. Unless he is crazy enough to bet fold 44 or KQ, you have to give him credit.

You are 50/50 against a range of AA, KK, QQ, QJ, 9T, AT, KJ, 44. I would discount some of that range as some would check raise flop and/or raise pre. Fold river me thinks...

Ugh I'd wanna fold but we're getting a decent price. It just sucks because the river didn't change anything and this is pretty much what we predicted would happen, so folding seems bad..

I feel like when he checks out your stack he is sizing you up for how much value he can extract.

At that point I would put him on AT maybe T9s or 44. More heavily weighted towards the hands that beat you. I feel like when he 3 bets you on the turn 44 is more discounted than you think. He has to be a little scared of your range, especially if you are tightish, he must figure that board to smash your range of holdings.

This would be a hero fold; I don't know if it's right or if I could make it.