Reads: UTG is loose preflop. He has limp/called K4s type hands in EP. CO is an unknown who I've seen zero showdowns from but here's what I've seen of him. He once cold called in the BB against a MP open and button 3-bet, MP called, he checked a king high flop, MP bet, button called, he called. He then lead turn fairly large and both opponents fold (button showed AK). He also once called an UTG open from UTG+1, then folded to a 3-bet, and he claimed to have 97s and claimed he wasn't going anywhere if he saw the flop (which was 7 8 10 rainbow). My image is fine, I've been at the table only like 1 hours.

UTG open limps. Folds to main villain in the CO who makes it 35. I flat on the button with JJ, UTG calls. ~105 in the pot and 400 effective stacks against both players.

Flop: 1022. UTG checks, villain bets 75, I make it 150, UTG folds, villain calls.

Turn: 10224. Villain puts me all in, which is a bet of 250 into 405. Hero?

Also comments on pre and flop welcome. My rationale for raising flop was my hand is very vulnerable against many hands he might bet fold, like AQ, KQ, or AK.

How often does CO raise pf?


The min raise OTF seems weird to me. I wouldn't 2bet unless I wanted to commit, so calling turn is fine if you assumed you were good OTF. I'd prefer calling and going for a cheap showdown though. With the min raise, I think A/K/Q would be the only kickers that'd continue. We're not really sure how often V bluffs, but we do know he can fold out trash. If I'm ranging right, we're 50% vs a range of :TT+,22,ATs,A2s,KTs,QTs,ATo,A2o,KTo,QTo. If he wouldn't stack of w.out TPTK, we're down to just 29% equity, still making the call marginally ok. PF raising tenancies would help range this better. Is he wide? That'd add a few more combos where he's got 2's. If he limps plenty, but rarely raises, he's more likely to have solely sets and overs.

I guess in my opinion I would be folding this. I think the range posted above is a little too wide given that it seems like CO is generally fairly passive preflop and now decided to 7x it pre. I think his range going to the flop consists of ATs+, 88+, as well as AKo or AQo with the occasional small pp. However, on a board with no draws present that hits a tiny amount of villains preflop range, after he calls our flop raise oop to us, it's really tough to see him continue with hands like AJs+, AQo+, or 88, 99. I just don't really see the big unpaired aces calling the flop to make an all in bluff oop giving us good odds with little reads on us. And I think if he did in fact decide to get sticky with 88 or 99, he's going into more of a bluff catching/showdown mode ott rather than putting himself wawb against our calling range when shoving. So at this point I think it's TT+, with the occasional ATs. With no reads, I just don't feel comfortable stacking off with jj in such a crumby spot. Pre flop is fine so long as you're not calling for set mining purposes. I think a 3 bet really bloats the pot going to the flop and puts us in a awkward position. As far as the flop goes, I'm a huge advocate of raise folding for value but don't see it being our optimal play here as our villains calling range beats is quite often.


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Flop is a call, not a raise. Being vulnerable isn't really a reason to raise. And the times he does have and does fold AQ+,KQ aren't even worth much. You're getting him to fold away 6 turn outs, so he's folding as a 7:1 dog.

But yeah, this is raising JJ as a bluff on T22. Calling is much better.

After villain bet/calls the flop and shoves the turn, I'm folding.

35 is a large open pre. I don't think he has Tx.

Either way, you do have a turn decision, but flop is the error. If you call turn getting a bit < 3:1, that probably can't be too bad, but I do think it's a fold. And this is all really a function of getting another 150 in on the flop. And finally, I really would not want to raise the flop with the plan to fold to a turn shove getting close to 3:1... but now that we're here, I say oops and I fold.

As others have said, call the flop don't raise.

On turn, is he ever bluffing? I would say probably not since there are no draws and donking into an opponent that just raised is super strong.

Put together a value range for V? Does JJ beat any of it? Probably not, so this is a clear fold.

Just nthing what everyone said above.

I would probably 3bet pre but I assume main villain would be isolating villain super light. Once main villain bets flop with fish in the hand he's saying he has at least top pair, your raise is spew vs his range there, it is definitely no good vs his put it in range

Agree that raising flop is bad, but what the hell value hand does this? What purpose does it serve? This just looks like some sort of weird stop and go type of move. I def think this could be a strongish 10 that just doesn't really know what to do and wants to "protect" or something

Here's my additional thought process and reason for raising.

Pre - Someone mentioned 3-betting possibly. This is actually my default move IF villain had open raised (i.e. there was no limper) and the raise size was more normal (like 15-20). Since the raise was large, I just flatted.

Flop - My range for flatting here is actually pretty tight. Probably AK, AQ, 88-QQ, KQs, AJs, 87s-109s. I might even drop off AJs and 87s from that range. JJ on this flop is near the top of my range. IF I want to play a strategy that is not beaten by simply c-betting ATC and bluffing ATC, I must call all the way down with JJ since it's like the top 5% of my possible range on this flop. Of course, villain might be playing "make a hand poker" (where you don't bluff and just try to made strong hands and get all in). This may even be far more likely than a strategy that over-bluffs and posters here seem to think so.

IF I plan to be willing to stackoff by calling all the way down with JJ, it seemed to me raising flop > flatting since overcards have ~24% equity against me and there are tons of overcard combos that he'd definately raise pre with and might c-bet flop with (i.e. AK and AQ). Also, the stacks are shallow so having a range capped at QQ (well, 1010 technically) isn't as big of a problem as if stacks were deep. If instead stack sizes were 1000 to start, I would instead only flat or fold flop, since JJ is crushed if there's a flop raise, massive turn bet, and massive river bet. Let's say effective stacks were only 150 instead. Now you guys would agree that JJ is a clear shove for the min-raise right?

Also note that if I raise JJ on the flop, I'd probably have no bluff raise range at all. Normally I'd try to balance bluffs as well, but that's assuming the value raises and very rarely beat which is not the case here. Raising a range of QQ-JJ for value is beat a decent % of the time when stacking off.

Just because you flat the flop doesn't mean you have to call down on every turn and river. If you call flop with AQ, KQ and a Q peels on the turn, JJ is no longer your strongest hand. Play some turns and rivers, they are profitable.


This is not a board you need to raise ever, so you don't need to worry about the strength of your raising range.

Basically, this hand comes down to the question of whether we can make exploitative folds against him for having too strong of a range and failing to bluff enough (i.e. if his flop bet range is only JJ+). If not, and if the turn and river come blanks, given my preflop range, we'd have to call all the way down with JJ, since it's at the very very top of my range. We'd also have to float flop with AK and maybe some AQ. To be exact...

Let's say if I call the 75 on the flop, he bet's 170 on the turn and shoves river. Here's how often I'd have to call on the flop, turn, and river to make his bluffs neutral EV: Flop = ~35% (low since limper can also defend), turn = ~65%, river = ~80% (very high since river shove is tiny compared to pot). Since my pre flatting range is AK, AQ, 88-QQ, KQs, AJs, 87s-109s, or 77 combos on the flop, I have to call all the way down with 14 combos.

If I raise flop though sometimes, aren't I allowed to call down less, because I have to call a slightly "extra" amount if never raising flop to take into account his bluffs having some equity (eg AQo having outs against my 109s or JJ). In other words, if I have no raise range on the flop, I may fold 65% of the time but if I have a raise range on the flop, I may be allowed to fold like 70% of the time.

I guess I raised flop because if I didn't, I planned to call all the way down. After all, if I just flat flop and he shoves turn, I'm getting a little worse than 2-1 and only need to be good like 37% of the time to call. If I plan to do that, why not just raise to protect my hand? If he has QQ-AA, I'm getting stacked either way, but if he has AQ-AK and he stops bluffing turn, flatting flop just gives him a free card to draw out.

Big question: If you guys just flat flop with JJ and he bets turn for a reasonable amount (between half pot and all in), do you fold or call?

The main problem i would have with the flop raise IS the effective stack size. With more behind we could raise fold with the right reads but since this is such a large portion of our stack it puts us in an akward spot

I will post results by end of today. So the consensus is flop is a flat, not raise. So if we flat flop, what is the plan on a blank turn for the following scenarios? 1 - villain bets half pot (we'd have only 200 left if calling). 2 - villain shoves (we'd be getting a bit worse than 2-1 odds and would need about 40% equity to call). 3 - villain checks.

Overcards don't have 24% equity vs you, they have 12% equity since they only get 1 card unless they bluff turn which is great for you.

On turn I'd probably jam if opponent bets any amount and bet ~$120/call if he checks. I mean we only have 80BBs and got one of the best flops for our hand, doesn't seem like there's any reason to try and get away from it.

Im actually fine with the flop raise. I wouldnt say its the default play for sure, but I dont hate it either.

As played, his turn shove makes no sense. He could easily be overplaying AK here especially if hes a tournament player. Shoving with AA/KK/QQ/TT makes no sense since you are probably betting if he checks. In game I would stick to whatever read I have to determine if I call or not.

Results: I tank call turn shove, he showed KK which held up.

what else did you really expect him to have I put him on that type of hand the second I read your post

instamuck. you beat nothing, and V is not a spewtard or a bluffer.

you have a lot of very questionable assumptions in there.

for instance, how is JJ there very top of your range? you ALWAYS 3! QQ+ pre? you should be flatting with QQ+ enough times to balance out your preflop range.

The concept of "rangeing" is great and all, but sometimes at lower stakes NL, you can get your opponent down to a pretty small group of hands. That is what makes up a huge part of your edge in these games. The default, typical, 1-2, 1-3, 2-5 small cap player here has you crushed as soon as he calls your flop raise. When he calls your flop raise and proceeds to just go all in when the flush draw misses on the turn, he might as well be playing his hand face up. That's how these guys think.

Sorry, misread op regarding flush draw. Still feel crushed

This sees like a fine spot to just call down. I don't get why we think our hand is very vulnerable. If he does have an AK/AQ, then there are just 11 cards coming we have to worry about, and even if an overcard comes there's a good chance it doesn't pair him.

As played, we might just have to fold turn. Looking at the facts, you didn't describe any situation where this villain raised preflop, and he just raised preflop after at least one limper. He cbet large and called our min raise on a dry board. Then he just bombs it on the turn. Doesn't seem like a villain that is capable of bluffing into obvious strength, so folding the turn definitely has to be best here.

This is a situation that comes up frequently. I call a raise pf with a pp and end up with an op on the flop. I'm getting heat. What do I do?

The first thing is to look at your reads. You have several examples, which is great. It indicates that he's a loose player. But, all of them involve calling pf. We don't have an indication of what his raising range is like. One driver to people calling a lot is that they feel that poker is about hitting your hand on the flop. Therefore, you just play a lot of hands for "cheap" and wait until you have a big hand. A consequence is that they don't think many hands are worth a raise pf because all that matters is the flop. He's going to have a tight range.

The second thing to consider is the gap between your op and a TP hand. In this case, you don't have any gap. Let's say the flop was 622r instead of T22r. His value range can include over pairs like 77, 88, 99 that you beat. They can call a raise. However, any over pair on this board ties or beats you. Since his range is tight, he's not going to have any Tx combos. All a raise does in this case is make sure he folds everything you beat and continues with all hands that beat you.

That's why raising is a bad idea and calling is better. When he bets at you on the turn, you're almost never good. That's a fold.

This is exactly right, and the way people should be thinking about these tricky overpair situations. That type of thinking also extends to preflop, where a normal three bet to say 80 told you everything you needed to know about his hand. Instead, the conservative route yielded an uncomfortable decision at every stage of the hand ultimately costing 500.

Facing the turn shove, I expected him to NOT have QQ-AA 100% of the time, and was hoping he only had those hands like 70-75% of the time. If that's the case, it's about neutral EV to call since I only need to win about 28% of the time to break even.

I was hoping that the ~25% of the time he doesn't have QQ-AA, that he had A10, pocket 9s, or a bizarre bluff (maybe 1-2% of the time).

I also assumed he had QQ-AA well over 50% of the time, since his line is entirely consistent with these hands.

I would 3-bet KK for sure and QQ almost for sure. I would try to flat with AA about half the time, 3-bet half the time.

Even if I flat 3 combos of AA preflop, JJ is still near the top of my range, only AA and 1010 are stronger.

I would say that this is dead on. I originally said raising the flop is not bad, but I misread the hand and thought hero had raised preflop. Not called a preflop raise.

If I called preflop with JJ I would call the flop bet and fold the the turn shove.