Hero TAG winning image. Stack 2k

Villain plays tightish. He is running bad and already lost a couple of big pots. Doubled me up in a 2k+ pot before. Was on tilt but it seems like he calmed down. Stack 1k

Straddle, villain raises 40 utg+1, hero 3b in bb to 160 with JJ, villain calls.

Flop (340) T98
hero checks, villain bet 120, hero calls.
Turn (580) T98A
check check
River (580) T98A2
hero checks, villain bets 330, hero?

It's really hard for villain to have a worse value hand than us here.
A huge part of his range is going to have a straight, a set, two pair or top pair.

If villain is the type of person who bluffs a lot, he could find enough bluffs on the river, but it's hard and seems very unlikely to me.

I think a straight and a set are unlikely to check behind on the turn.
AA/KK/QQ are unlikely too, they probably 4bet pre.
AK is also less likely since it will sometimes be 4bet pre, depending on villain.

I wonder how often villain is checking behind on the turn with a hand like AK/AQ/AJ/AT and two pair hands like T9, 98.
Doesn't seem too strange on a board like this.

Villain's bet is also saying he has something like TP or two pair, it's not a huge bet.
I really like how villain played the hand.


From villain's perspective we could easily have AA-88.
Though it's unlikely we check KK-88 on the flop. Which removes most of the sets from our range.

We shouldn't have hands like T9 or 98, making two pair unlikely.

When we call the flop our range pretty much becomes AK/AQ/AA-JJ


Our turn check seems standard and shouldn't give much info.
Villain's turn check pretty much removes the top of his range like straights and sets as well.


Our river check then once again weakens our range.
Are we really ever checking AA/AK/AQ?

Villain's river bet nicely targets our weak range, which would now be something like KK-JJ maybe AQ.

If he's a really good player he might be targeting those hands to try to get you to fold.

If he's not a great player (which seems much more likely) is he really going to value bet TP or two pair on a board as scary as this?
We have shown significant weakness though.


In the end it really comes down to how villain is playing.
Against a player bluffing too much, I could find a call here.
Against most players we just have a bluff catcher and most people don't bluff enough, so this should be an easy fold.

As played, fold ... can't find 4-5 worse hands here vs. 12 combos of KK/QQ. We are also blocking a couple combos of JTs.

Pre - I'd probably flat from the BB vs. tightish +1 open of 8x.

There's a straddle so the open is 4x
I'd probably flat too vs an 8x open

Go bigger pre, this is too small from BB especially this deep. I would go $200, but I can see going larger.

Flop seems standard.

Turn seems standard.

River x-f seems standard as well. I love blocking rivers with the given action, but there are little to no hands that we beat that can actually call.

By the way, you guys have it backwards - we are more inclined to 3 bet versus larger opens than we are versus smaller. In fact in theory (and I'd argue in practice, too) we should literally never be calling an 8x raise pre.

Was a tough river decision. On one hand I didnt believe him and almost called. On the other hand I couldnt find bluffs. His hand looked a lot like Ax. Blocking the straight wasnt relevant because he never checks that back ott. But blocking straight draws and pair+sd was relevant. I also thought that he would take his showdown value with Tx or other pairs.

We tanked like 2 minutes and villain called the clock lol
We folded and villain showed K6
Would have never thought that he raises that in ep and calls a 3b. I guess he was still on tilt and wanted a revenge haha

why isn't a continuation pot-sized bet on the flop not a good play here?

if V calls the flop and a blank hits the turn. I would fire a 2nd barrell with 8 outs (possibly 6) if we are up against QQ

is the above a negative EV play?

This particular hand is not quite good enough to bet for value and is too good to bet as a bluff. It makes a nice checking hand since it isn't vulnerable to a 4 straight on the turn.

Also if we get raised what are we doing? Overpair with an open ender has a lot of equity but is probably behind atm.

I disagree with respect. I think checking flop is a mistake here. We have a somewhat vulerable hand, and we should also be representing our range here, not just JJ. If we have QQ+, are we really checking here?

Turn, perfectly fine. I think when V checks here, I feel like we are good here a large amount of the time. Easy to say that with results, I know, but on such a wet board with back door hearts being set up, what value hands do we think V is just checking back here to give us our free river card? Maybe AA/JT, but I think those hands just go for 3 streets here, so I doubt it. Most AX hands probably want to bet to avoid the suck out, so what's beating us? Maybe KK/QQ, but those get 4 bet a nonzero % of the time (KK more so obviously).

River, I get the fear, but I probably close my eyes and call. I think V can have a lot of busted draws here, and maybe even Tx hands. I am never giving him credit for an ace here when he bets flop when we show weakness, and then checks when his card supposedly gets there.

I disagree with a flop bet. You say we should be betting otf because of our range. If we represent our range we should be checking. In theory we check a lot here. Yes we have JJ-AA (maybe TT) but also miss a lot. Villain has straigths and all the sets and 2 pair while we dont. Also what hands are we targeting when we bet otf?

One of the few benefits of playing like an idiot is that no one will be able to read you. That's what V did here--he played like an idiot, and you assumed he was playing rationally (at least somewhat) and probably had you beaten.

No worries. You did the right thing IMHO.

I would bet this flop always. It is just too wet and i dont want random over cards to stick around and catch.

Your turn check is fine, but he would bet Ax every time.

Your river chk after turn chk/chk essentially invites him to bluff. You didn't call though with your bluff catcher.

It's a 3 bet pot, and we should have all the Overpairs here, QJs, and some semi bluffs with Jacks.. Our only "misses" on this runout are going to be hands like AK/AQ. If we want to check when we hit a straight to balance that out, that's fine. But I am firing most overpairs here.

I will agree with you that we should be checking more than cbetting when out of position, but V will also miss this flop a bit, or being on semi draws himself. I just don't see how we take the action we did just to find a fold on the river, especially when he clicks back turn.

I am with lushri here. Especially when we check turn, he checks back because maybe he was thinking rationally that we can have AK here, and checked back to see if he flushes. When you check river, you never has AK here. You played incredibly face up, imo.

Flop is a check as far as any solver is concerned. I'm always checking it in practice also. Yeah our hand doesn't love an ace or a king but it's also not very good so I don't want to be building a big that we're never ahead when called.

Side note: representing range isn't an actual poker term. It's one of many silly things a certain commentator says on tch live.

Betting range is a term but when you bet 100% range you use a small 1/3 or 1/4 size. What you are representing when you bet pot is QJ or a set

I could be wrong here, and will admit that drow, mostly because I can't use my solver. My thought process is not to ever go pot here, but 1/3-1/2. We can have the best hand a good amount of the time and drawing to 8 outs when we aren't (10 if the V doesn't have QQ). We do have a vulnerable hand though, as we really don't want to see any J or over card other than a Queen.

I think V is continuing with any made pair AT/A9, maybe A8 but he is listed as tight (ignoring results), 77, any two over cards, and some Qx. As it stands, we checked and have no idea where we are in the hand. V can have air, value, or just be semi bluffing and now we are in a weird situation.

I think by river though, we are in decent shape, but it is what it is.

Effective stacks are $1000 and $160 3bet (aka 4x raise) set up an SPR of 3.

3bet sizing isn't the problem here.

IMO JJ and QQ are the overpairs you DO bet for value here. The ones you check are AA and KK. Especially with JJ in this spot, if you get reraised you get it it and if villain calls, you can fire another barrel on the turn.

I would bet QQ-JJ and AQ if you had any, otherwise, I would compliment this with the baby Ax with backdoor flushes.

Have you solved it?

What does the solver bet?

I just ran it and we basically range check this board (we're actually betting QQ 90% pot at about 5% balanced with k6ss and aqo)

Ok. What is your 3bet range in that spot?

EDIT: Does villain's range matter for the solve? What range do we give villain?

Yeah I'm sure it does but I just gave him a standard tag open and defend range.

I edited the above post after you quoted it just a heads up. I'll open his range up a bit just because I'm curious. Give me 15 mins

Vs a wider than tag range with more offsuit high card ace defends/not 4bets (AK/AQ/AJ/AT) we start to bet this more but it's with QQ. I gave it third and 90% and it's betting 90% pot 23% of the time. JJ 90% pot 7% of the time

Wow, ok. That's definitely surprising for me.

Same here. I don't know if I agree with that at all, but fair enough.