(First Post)
Villain has $650 behind, Is a somewhat loose regular who is skilled. He opens to 25 in middle gets 4 callers including me (Hero)$700 in the big blind with J9
Pot is at 125
Flop K72
I check thinking about check raising, and everyone else checks including villain
Turn: 3 I bet out 50, he raises to 225. Thoughts???

Welcome to the fora.

I check for the free card too, and look to c/r if the action is right for it.

Turn bet of less than half-pot is suspicious and could get raised light, as it looks like a stab. If you're gonna semi-bluff 5-ways OTT, go $75.

I assume it folds back to you? Turbo-muck, ldo. He's not folding to a shove after that, and you're not getting to call and try to bink.

Checking the turn is definitely the best move.

You won't get all 4 players to fold too often.

It looks like a lot of strength or a flush draw. He's raising a bet from you into 4 players into 3 players. That screams sets, namely KK or 77, or a flush draw. I think he just flats Kx and folds his air with 3 players still behind him.

Its a tricky spot but I think you can call here and evaluate the river.

I agree that villain here is polarized mostly to sets and FDs but with the Kh on board an the Jh9h in our hand there aren't very many I would expect him to show up with after opening from MP.

It's going to make a big difference how many PPs and SCs he will open and how likely he is to play his sets slow in a MW pot.

If we can give him credit only for 77 and KK (bc he wouldn't open 22 or 33) and AQ, AT, and QT for heart draws (card removal takes away the other broadway and sc combos) he's got 6 sets and 3 draws. Even if he folds all draws getting 2.8-1 shoving has an EV of (.33)(400) + .66[(.16)(800) - (.84)(575)] ~ -105. If he ever thinks his overcard outs are good on his NFDs and calls with them it gets even worse.

Calling is also bad as we only are only getting 2.3-1 from the pot now and have weak implied odds. Even if he stacks off his sets 100% on heart rivers we are still drawing to at most 7 hearts. We beat nothing if the 2 or 3 of hearts hits. You'll be forced to get it in on all others hearts but will still lose a decent amount and there isn't enough money behind to make up for it.

If you want to try to bluff his busted draws on blank rivers you can bet no more than half pot (as he will fold no more than 1/3) and you may not succeed if an A or Q hits and he spikes a pair. If you pair up he can bluff his busted draws up to 87% of the time and you won't be able to call.

Tl;dr fold > call > shove

if we're talking about a random 2/5 player who is 130bb deep, i think he can open wider than the range you gave him. SCs and 22/33 are definitely in his range for me unless he previously shows me otherwise. so i cant find a fold on the turn.

obviously we're never getting his value range to fold. and im not sure im too comfortable shoving against the rest of villains range, which is mainly flush draws. some that beat us, some that we beat.

I like the turn lead but I agree it should be bigger because I'm not sure wed bet this small with our true value hands. Villains line doesn't really make too much sense to me as he doesn't really rep too much checking that flop 120bb deep. I still probably fold because our equity can't be great no matter what he has just gross cuz not so sure villain is that strong.

With the cards on the board and in heroes hand the only scs left are 56 & 45. If he opens 22 or 33 the implied odds improve, but we are still only drawing to 7 cards and won't be good all if the time even when we get there.

If his range was all sets and sets only we would need 5.3-1 in pot and implied odds to draw profitably. As played we are getting 4.6-1 and have little hope of outplaying villain on the river.

What's the relative position? Are the other two players left to act when he raises? If yes, u can fold... If they folded and it's HU now u could ship and expect him to fold a high percentage of the time...

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What's he raising that folds other than FDs? How many can we put in his range given the cards out and the fact he opened?

Totally screwed up my first post, and put in the wrong flop. I had a pair and a flush draw if that changes anything
K79

Hero: J9

When he raised the 3 on turn I immediately put him on a set, or another flush draw

Haha well this changes about literally everything. Villain reps even less now. I don't know why we're so quick to just put him on a set when that is jut way to wet a flop for him not to cbet with 3 other people in the hand. Especially when he's 130bb deep. Only thing that would make sense is if he turned a set of 3s. Not saying he can't have other sets here just saying that it's an extremely weird line for top or bottom set and we have a 9 blocker. Now tht I have a pair as we'll and we could very well be ahead or have a decent amount of equity and also in my opinion some fold equity I think I just jam now.

grunch: fold

i must be missing something... but your fold equity has to be low after that raise and you're on a pure flush draw. even if you pair up you're likely behind his range (even if he's loose).

i probably would have folded this pre as well to a raise from early position. but i've recently made myself a "rule" where i don't play suited connectors out of position. i just keep getting burned and putting myself in tough spots when i flop decent but not great... like this.

oh, got the right flop now. i probably lead flop but i think check raise ok. you must have fold equity and have you good EV against most generic ranges i think. check turn for sure.... i probably still fold. unless you know villain would semi bluff big on turn i'd give up. even if he is on a draw too... his draw might be better. if he's not on a draw... he probably has your 9's beat.

OP, I'd prob just re-post this hand in a new thread, as the confusion from the first flop to this one will continue.

I really prefer a bet out OTF with a pair and a FD rather than what I assume was your missed c/r attempt, and DEF prefer a bigger lead OTT.

Checking that flop, but raising turn mostly reps a PP< K but > 9. No sets check that flop multi-way, imo. 33 is posible, but unlikely.

AP, turn is a kinda gross spot, but I prob shove here. You should have great FE against both the PPs and the draws in his range, and equity to fall back on if he calls.

I know this is very different than my first post ITT, but that pair really makes a big difference.

a competent villain may pay AK that way, not wanting to face a c/r on the flop, and sniffing out the weak lead. I agree with Garick, you can bet out and see what the action is back to you - I think we have enough of equity to bet jam over a raise from the Buttons get it in range - math guy(s) please help with equity.

I think the villains get it in range on the flop has more made hands than FD or str8 draws because we block lots of them.

I called the raise.

River= Q

I check, and he puts his remaining chips in. I fold, and he turns over a 3

I said he had a set to the table, and he replies I would of showed a set. Sounded like a bad lie.

When we flop big combo draws we want to shape the nature of what calls us, or what will raise us.

OTF I go after this hard. I might even overbet the pot to $100 and determining what I'll do OTT dependent on the stack sizes of who calls us. We want to represent that we are defending our hand - this flop makes a pretty easy two pair for many calling ranges - against a flush draw, making top pair hands that have us beat extremely nervous and sets us up to push them out OTT, while flush draws may continue to call us down only to miss or find out that they lose.