Quote:
Originally Posted by Bigpants
I appreciate everyone's advice. You're right.
Way to stay humble out there. Further flaming your call pre doesn't help your game much. The first thing I would say is that it's good to ask yourself if you're wrong and should get out at every action in close spots like this. Just in life, in general. If you're on the fence pre, stay on the fence post flop. Had you reevaluated post flop, I think that you would have realized that this guy was always likely to lead this flop for pot. 23ss is not the best hand to call someone down with. You can make a great argument for 3 betting pre here but 2-3 orbits in I don't think it's necessary. Asian business men don't leave when they're up. So what if someone else doubles through him or vise versa? It's all good for the game, and he's not going anywhere. Remember to be patient and not try to force anything. When you do call, flop your draw, and you know he's leading for pot, then you have to raise here, possibly get it in. This is why you fold or raise pre, but that's irrelevant now. If he only has $1200, he hasn't just been flipping stacks right? If she said that he was running the table, but you see that he's still floating around 2 buyins, then he hasn't been getting it in for stacks a lot. He must be taking down more small and medium sized pots. If I found myself this far into this hand, the first change I would make, is to fold to his $50 flop bet. I am disregarding the hand that you saw before when he had AQ too. We don't know the dynamic between him and the BB in that hand yet. It seemed like he was afraid of something (maybe more than a K) on the river, but we don't know what the river was, so I disregard that hand. I think that the info from the girl is the better read. We are all capable of getting dealt AQ pre in MP. The fact that he showed AQ there makes it just as likely that he is now leveling you on this flop w/ a weaker hand.
When you call with spades trying to manufacture a double up against a fish on a heater, then hit your spades, and he leads for pot like you know he was going to, my brain works like this: "Well **** Trevor, this is why you should have folded pre. Ugh. What were you hoping would happen? That you would flop a draw? Well... here it is. Raise or fold!" Again, I'm not against folding to the $50 lead, taking a walk, and mentally restarting the session. I think that is the most professional play. Just go ride an elevator. I don't mind raising though either. We have a flush draw, if he does too, then we pay $500 to learn a lesson. You have him on top pair, 2 pair, and over pairs. I think that his range could be a lot lighter, but it's not the worst angle to come from mentally. It should have made your fold on the flop easier, but I understand that it's hard to call hoping for spades, hit spades, reevaluate, realize you were wrong, and fold a flush draw that you paid $20 to flop. So you need to raise right? I would raise his $50 bet to somewhere between $180 and $250. If he shoves, you obv call, but I think that he's folding here a lot. It looks really strong. You're a new player so he doesn't know you well enough to think that you're weak here. If he flats and checks the turn, you have to jam, acting in whatever manner you would w/ AJxx. It sucks. If he flats, then shoves or essentially shoves the turn, I would fold and go take that walk. Either way, I would rather you min raise here before calling.
Assuming that I do just call the $50 post flop, I don't know what to do when the K hits. When he leads for a comparatively small $35, it has to be close to 50/50 whether he's shutting down with a tricky bet, or really turned a hand that he's not folding. Now, this far into the hand, I can't fold either, so now I'm with you. We just need to find a plan A, B, and maybe a C. Plans A and B start with a call here. A) If a spade comes, good for you, I hope he doesn't have a higher flush. Size it larger since he probably has a straight, especially on an Ax or Jx river, some people shove on fish. I try to think about how many times I'm going to miss here in the future, and bet enough to put the largest dent in that number. B) If a non-spade comes, and he checks, I bet. Just bet whatever you would with AJxx to get him to fold his pairs and possibly sets. So that's what I would have done differently leading up the the turn raise.
Plan C, which is what you went with, is raise his turn bet. I wouldn't do this without a strong read. You had a strong read. The reads are always questionable, but that's poker, you must trust your reads. So if I got a read that this $35 was some sort of tricky bet, and I wanted to raise. I think that I would raise to.... damn it's tough because it's hard to find a reasonable amount that he will fold to with one card still to come. I never bluff in this spot so I don't even know. The board is dripping wet, and I'm 3 high. I feel like you have to raise so big that it makes the raise a bad play, even if you do have a read. I don't think $85 is doing it. That is just as likely to get re-raised light as it is to be folded to. I am thinking somewhere around $135. It could work if you just put a $35 stack and a $100 stack out together 'immediately' when he leads for $35. That's tough to get right though with the timing/tells. Or maybe a min-raise to make hime think you're trying to build the pot with at least a J? Really, I think that when you realize that your bluff needs to be around $100, you then realize that you can just call and bluff the same amount if checked to on the river, where he is more likely to fold a hand like KQ, AQ, AA, etc. As far as raising the turn goes, if he calls and we miss, I'm never firing another barrel on the river. That is not the spot that I am looking for. Good luck out there.
