Villain ($~450)- Fish that I have a ton of history with. Nothing too out of the ordinary from a typical fish - plays too many hands preflop, chases too many draws postflop, and bluffs more frequently than he should. He's also a pretty passive player. Rarely raises hands preflop. Will occasionally raise post-flop, but definitely prefers to either call or be the 1st player to bet.
Hero (Covers) - Views me as a solid, winning player. Been playing pretty TAG all night, however has shifted gears and started playing a lot of hands in the last half hour or so (mostly due to a good run of cards).
We're playing 5 handed at 5 am.
Villain limps in HJ.
Button limps.
SB completes.
Hero has A
K
in BB and raises to $30.
Villain calls.
Others fold.
Flop ($70): Q
T
8
Hero bets $30.
Villain raises to $70. (I
think this is the 1st time he's raised me in the 5 or 6 hours we've been playing together.)
Something else to note about villain... the mistakes he makes are things he just can't help himself from doing. He actually has good poker knowledge and is pretty good at reading opponents. What's relevant here is this - In this particular situation I can assure you that if another
hits on the turn, there is basically a 0% chance he will put in his entire stack.. no matter what he has... unless we're beat or he just decides to go crazy w/ complete air (very unlikely imo).
So, what are his most likely hands and how should we play this?
Any other thoughts are also appreciated