I would not expect much fold equity from a 'tilty' and sort of 'stationy' villain. Based on the above read, I'd plan to take this villain to valuetown as opposed to running a double barrel semi-bluff/bluff.

Looks good pre and flop. The turn is obviously the big decision point in the hand. The runout isn't great for bluffing, imo. I have a couple problems with deciding the semi-bluff.

1) The 4 isn't a great scare card. It doesn't change top pair or complete any obvious draws that you would bet the flop with.

2) A passive villain shows strength betting the turn. You bet pre then flop, then he bets when you check the turn. Ax with medium to strong kicker dominate his range. Villains at low stakes generally have trouble folding a pair of aces. I usually don't try to blow 'stationy' villains off top pair (esp. aces). Will he bet-fold these hands? Probably not.

3) You don't have any extra outs besides the bare flush draw. You don't have any hidden straight outs. You're not drawing to a nut flush. I suppose you could bluff spades on the river. But, Ax spades makes a lot of sense for villain's range. It's generally not a good idea to rep a hand your villain credibly holds

4) You risk losing your ~20% equity if you raise-fold. Any 5x hand or set will probably 3bet shove the turn and you'd have to fold.

Villain offers you 4:1 direct odds to call with a flush draw. I'd take it and shutdown most rivers if I miss.

I don't understand this argument. The implied odds are a good reason to call, imo. I think people generally overvalue the IO from flushes because they're so obvious. However, if you call and bink, you should expect villain to call a small-medium river value bet.

As played, you don't have much of an option other than to continue the bluff. I'd shove as well. The backdoor flush and pairing the board might get villain to fold a lot of his Ax range. Hope it worked!

I ran a similar bluff last week with 87s on a A-6-4-T board. There were a couple key differences. I knew my opponent played tight postflop and had seen him fold top pair before. He didn't like playing for big money without strong hands and my turn c/r had a ton of leverage. I had a double-gut shot and flush draw on the turn. He wasn't tilted and won a nice pot a few orbits ago. He clearly wanted to protect his stack. I didn't think he'd fold if I bet again. I was happy to check for a free card and c/r with a lot of FE if he bet. He was one of two players at my table I would try that against.

Overall, I think the number one problem with the bluff is your target. You have to know your opponent can fold a medium strength hand.

I liked your response, it was very thorough. I liked this point a lot – I got very greedy and decided to bluff after a small bet, rather than focusing on the great odds I was getting.

I liked the whole thing up until the x/r. He's repping strength and made a tiny bet. You're getting decent odds on a call so just call, lose the fps. You have no hand and only one card to come.

I don't really know what to do after the x/r, I just hate it so much against someone described as stationy.

Also I find Vs description confusing, he's a station but also bets a lot and is both passive and aggressive?

Edit: read the posts and agree 110% with javi, you rep way too thin here.

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i've made a lot of hero calls vs villains - a lot of my money comes from winning non standard hands.

Just the other night I was able to pick someone off with A5 on a 52JT board because he made some odd bet that made no sense. I wasn't that deep - maybe $300 but still a non standard spot and i doubled up.

He had AQ and bricked on river.

It can be challenging if you are on your phone or just playing ABC poker - but if you pay attention to bet sizes - lines - and how the villain acts you can gather a lot of info

I wouldn't bet the turn and definitely not x/r the turn.

You said V is stationey and for him to bet this turn he has at minimum AX. I don't think you have much fold equity and run the risk of getting 3-bet OTT when you could have just called getting a good price.

I don't like barrelling turn either as you are just trying to fold out pocket pairs, most of his range is calling you and beating you. We can expect him to check back pocket pairs on the turn fairly regularly, giving us solid information going to the river. We can attempt a bluff on KX or JX rivers if we want to.

Just barrel turn and bomb on any black card or broadway and maybe post oak a blank. Players like this don't thin vbet and they don't make big folds, so their b/f range is often pretty close to nil. I prefer x/c over x/r, but I honestly think this run-out is very very good to barrel against almost any player.

As many others have mentioned, it seems like you went out of your way to not really rep much, which is only going to give villain the incentive to stop and think about how unlikely it is you have a 5.

sick

OP, what has villain's small bets meant in the past? The $55 on the turn into a $150 pot looks like a weak bet that's not sure if it wants a fold or is trying to extract value.

My read on Villain says either A2 or A3. The description of your read on the river, plus V's tendency to make small bets frequently means he's not too excited about this hand. If he overestimates his hand reading ability, he might take pride in a good read with a fold here.

You did mention he's a bit of station who makes decent hand reads, so I'm leaning towards this being a bad bluff. But only slightly.

At the end of the day, this river bluff primarily comes down to your read.

IME, you'd have more success with a river bluff if you pause, ask how much he has behind, then methodically call. Whatever river comes, you bet an amount he can't reasonably call. Like $200 into a $300 pot.

Umm.. lol.

This x1000. When bluffing in these games your frequency and choice of opponent are key. OP actually reps a monster, as bet x/r is a common line I take with monster hands when I know V has made a hand and will bet the turn a lot. It's not a great bluffing line IMO, as I don't expected it to get many folds, which is what you were going for and didn't get. Sure, you ran into the top of his range, but on this draw heavy board there's a lot of hands he could have worth continuing. When guys bet the turn in a big pot I expect they have a hand they like, usually a good top pair, strong draw, or better.

You got lucky with a the ultimate scare card on the river and followed through nicely. When you picked up a read that he didn't like the river you grabbed your sack and shoved, so good job there. I personally don't like making huge bluffs OOP. When you are IP you can usually do a lot of damage with a big turn raise.

I think he just has trouble bet sizing. From what I remember, he only shoved with the nuts, check called, or bet 1/3-1/2 pot most hands.

I've bolded that bluff strategy, because it was interesting. Is there a discussion somewhere about other metagames and strategies we can employ to make bluffing more effective? Of course, taken with a grain of salt.

Yeah but what monster is he repping? How often do you make a set and then decide to raise when an obvious draw completes in your opponents favor? Thats the problem with this hand. That turn card was terrible for him given how the hand has played out, and we're supposed to believe that he decides to x/r with a set of AA or something? Is that what you do when you open with 66 and the board runs out 6789? You check raise for value? No, we usually turn our hand face up and just x/c letting our opponents know we are pissed that our hand just got rekt but dont bother bluffing because we're stations and arent ever folding, that way when they do bet we know it's for value.

Someone pointed out the fact that snapcalling here in villains shoes is laughable, and I agree to an extent. Nobody wants to donate >100BB's with less than the nuts on a coordinated board. Bad players who are shortrolled will just fold to avoid the stress which is what this villain did. Personally I'm a glutton for punishment and will call just to prove how bad I run. Hero got lucky and I think he knows that, but he still needs to reassess his turn decision since thats where this ship capsized. He thought this was a *good* spot to x/r because he has massive FE, when it was precisely the opposite.

^ agreed

disagreed, ofc we don´t have FE vs 55 ott, but vs the other parts of his range, we do. esp considering that villain actually folded a str8 otr

Obviously it worked here. I wouldn't look to repeat this particular line on this kind of board run out. I would continue to put pressure on this particular villain because he can't seem to take much of it.