Very open to criticism. After typing this whole hand out, I can spot some leaks in my thought process so am already learning
Villian ($800) - Tight, seems a bit tilty and has lost his stack twice. A bit of a call station, thinks himself as a great player based off of table talk. I would say he can read hands decently. Aggressive in terms of betting frequency, but really passive and small bet sizes.
Hero ($780) - LAG, young, a bit quiet but friendly. Has shown down winning marginal hands, and a couple of flushes with hands like J10s and 68s. Beat villain with 2 pair once, A10. Haven't been caught bluffing yet. Haven't shoved yet.
Pre: Hero is dealt Q
10
in MP
Folds to hero who makes it $20. Folds to V(button) who calls $20. BB calls.
1) Here I put V on Ax, any broadway, any PP, and suited connectors 56+. I take out TT+ because V 3!s those. I've seen him call with AK before.
Flop($58): A
2
4
BB checks. Hero bets $45. V calls. BB folds
2) V calls my c-bet and, his range narrows to Ax, 55-88, (maybe..KJ+), flush draws. I doubt sets a bit because he'd probably raise me on a board like this.
Turn ($148): A
2
4
3
Hero checks. V bets $55. Hero C/R to $250...
3) I check hoping for a check back to bink the flush or a pair from my over cards. V however bets fairly small, $55. This removes 66-99 from his range, and pretty much only leaves Ax, flush draw, or 55. I decide to take a c/r semi-bluff here because:
great fold equity: I think V will put me on a set or a straight.
good implied odds: I think I can value bet around $275 into ($~550) if I get a call from a set or 2pair and bink my flush.
I think he'd shove with a straight, in which case I'd fold.
V takes 10 seconds, pretty surprised at the check raise. V calls.
Here when V calls, I get a bit confused about his range esp because he did it fairly fast, and only calls. This makes me think A4, A3, A2 given my read of him being slightly stationy. He might be calling with a set he can't really fold or potentially even 55, scared of a 56? But I think he shoves with 55. I'm just really hoping for a .
River($568): A
2
4
3
4
I watch him before I see the card fall, and I get a read that he doesn't like the card. This makes me have a really strong feeling that his 2pair got counterfeited, or he has the 55. My read removes a FH from his range. I had wanted to c/f if I missed the flush, but this read gave me a huge gut feeling to bluff shove my $500. I think I can rep a BD flush or any full house here and get him to fold anything. I think if I bet lower, he calls or raises.
Hero shoves $500.
What do you all think about my thought process here? If you were villain and you saw my line, what would you put me on?
Result:
TBA