Hello again.

In my poker infancy, I used to have a terrible habit of automatically c-bet/giving up a ton when I raised preflop. To counter this, a lot of the thinking players started floating my preflop raises and c-bets, knowing they could play any two cards in their range profitably if I checked the turn. I learned to adjust to this by learning how to pick spots to double barrel, and started balancing my check-back range on the turn with medium strength made hands vs. floaters who would reliably fire at perceived weakness on the river with air.

Now, some of the better thinking players have started taking a different line against me, and I can't figure out how to interpret it. Here's an example hand:


Villain: Blue-collar white guy in his 50s. Loose-aggressive regular who's a pretty big long-term winner in the game. His hand selection and postflop tendencies borderline on spewy, but he picks his spots well enough to consistently churn out profits. He views me as a decent tight winning player, but knows that I'm probably one of the more bluffable people in the player pool. I just table changed about 10 minutes before this hand, so I don't have any in-session history for today, but he seems to be in top form today, sitting on a 500bb stack. Effective stacks are $525

PREFLOP Hero is CO with K J

Villain open limps in MP, Hero raises to 20, blinds fold, Villain calls

He has a ridiculously wide preflop range here: A9-A2. K9s-K2s, QTs-Q2s, 43s+, 64s+, 74s+, 65o+, 55-22. I gotta be missing some parts of it here but you should get the point. Discounting a lot of pairs and broadways because of the limp/call.

FLOP (40): K 6 5 - Villain checks, Hero bets 30, Villain calls

TURN (100): 2 - Villain bets 55 , Hero calls

RIVER (210): T - Villain bets 200 , Hero ???

Very confusing spot, not thrilled about the river card. He could have 55, 22, 65, K6, K5, K2, 6dXd, 5dXd here. But he could ALSO do this with a bunch of hands like 44, 33, 75o, 98s, etc, knowing that it's really hard for me to have a hand that could call a pot sized bet here.

This line is terrifying me right now, because I don't have an answer to it. Lets say I don't flop top pair. Let's say I have AT, or 77, or QJ, and this hand plays out the exact same way to Villain's turn lead. My preflop raising range is relatively snug, but so much of it misses this flop regardless that Villain could take this same line with his entire range and show an immediate profit! I've been playing in the same place for a couple years, and I think people have figured my game out well enough that I'm going to deal with this a lot more in the future, and my only shot of winning against them is to flop the nuts every time, which is rather unreasonable.

What's the correct adjustment here?

Without running out a tree and algorithm... some stabs at the adjustments off the top of my head (all of which are exploitable themselves, but exploit him for now)

-Drop your flop cbet frequency...check behind more whiffs and whiffs that can catch (over cards, backdoor draws, etc)...also check behind some weaker TP hands (like KT on Kxx... do this with kings and aces more so than vulnerable TP). This will have the effect of removing a street so to speak and strengthening your turn range for the line in question without making you 100% face up OTF.

-Delay what would be turn raises on your really good hands until the river

-Raise/fold turn as a bluff with some frequency. Even pick some of the meh parts of your range to turn into a bluff rather than a bluff catcher.

-Fold turn with some other meh hands that you wouldn't call another river bet with.

-bluff raise river with some hands like whiffed draws and again some meh parts of the range.


... again - fair warning that I did not think through these too deep, so some may be flat out wrong. But the overall goal is to have higher average strength OTT and/ or easier decisions when he donks.

fold the river

once you flat the turn he knows you have something. he is leading on a blank that adds a flush draw. he could be tryin to get max value or maybe picked up a fd witg his hand. anyway, then he bets pot after seeing your call on turn and the flush hitting. so he isnt afraid of ur ramge and u are likely to call. he bets pot

im folding. his range is minimum set here

I mean, if you're looking for places to check the flop, this is a perfect spot to do so with the plan to call most turn and river bets.

You're in position vs. an aggressive opponent and you hold TPGK on a fairly dry board.

The "correct adjustment" if there is one is probably to let an aggressive villain bet into you as a bluff when he'll have a very wide range and you'll have position and a hand that's very often the best hand but by no means a monster. Betting the flop here is probably a mistake against almost anyone because it starts to build a pot when you hold a hand for which you do not want a large pot, but it's especially a mistake against this villain who might c/r a relatively wide range and/or who would otherwise happily barrel into you on the turn trying to get you off your weaker hands.

Another adjustment is to consider villain's pre-flop range when betting for value on the flop. How often does this flop hit villain's range in such a way that he has a worse hand that merely calls for value, and we're really happy about it? Not very often at all. Yes, all his Kx (but there are only 50% of those left) and maybe some lower pairs, but what about all the junk, which is the vast majority of his range. So it's just a great spot to check the flop, keep his range incredibly wide and weak, and get him to start spaz betting into you.

As played, probably fold the river. And don't level yourself. If he's so aggressive that he might bluff, that he might float oop on the flop, then sure, call, you're getting 2:1.

Fold river

Very good post with several good advices for you OP. Especially i like the tips of checking more flops, so you keep villains range wider on the turn and pot control at the same time. Depend on board run outs you can call down one or two reasonable bets from villain if you suspects he is bluffing.

My thoughts is that you probably need to mix it up a little bit more also with your strong hands, often its not so big adjustments you need to make a difference.
I would starting to lower my C-bet frequenzy when your up against villains you suspects often will float you. For a period of time maybe your next session or two, try to only C-bet these specific villains with strong hands/strong equity. If you hit set or two pair for example, C-bet and when he donks on the turn just flat. Then he can burn off another barrel on the river wich you snapcall or raise his riverbet. Make the villains feel that its probably getting expensive for them to play bluffy hero in pots with you. Couple of those pots should make them think twice about taking the line that frustrates you.

When they start folding to your C-bets again, you can readjust and raise your C-bet frequenzy.

Another way to look at is that the villain is putting in $85 into a $70 pot without seeing how you would react. If it is a bluff, it is an expensive one.

Against a tough opponent, you have to give up on the idea of getting 3 streets of value with TPGK. If you only getting 2 streets of value against a lag, you want to get them on the turn and river when they're going to be inclined to try to drive you off the hand.

it's an older more reserved players check/raise flop, so it should be interpreted in the same way

this is pretty tough because one of his combos of 78s backdoored and 34s got there on the turn, not sure how many straight draws you got him on but if you can discount 47 then, I think it's probably a fold river only coz diamonds got there, would maybe look him up otherwise

I would also consider folding pre, not a very strong hand to iso a good player with imo

Wow, I can't help but think you're leveling yourself BIG time!

I really really doubt that players in your pool are frequently floating ATC to attack your high frequency of c-betting...

Above is literally blowing my mind...

In other words, you believe that "average" players in your pool are playing level 2 poker and your level 3 responses to them are getting exploited by "even better" level 4 thinkers?

Just stop right there...

If these things are really happening in your game, there is no money to be made in the game.

Raise/fold turn for value to $150. Fold river as played.

A great way to counter habitual float/stabbers is to c/r turn as a bluff and with TPTK/overpair type hands once a dynamic of him hero calling with worse is established.

Thanks guys, lots of good food for thought here.

Note that I never said this was a problem with my average opponent. Unfortunately, other competent players exist in the pool, especially when larger games aren't running. If I could play with 8 donks every time I would, but sometimes you just can't avoid skilled opposition. Dealing with other winning players is the main point here.

Played very well if u folded river.

Lots of good stuff here.

I agree with handcreme that you seem to be leveling yourself somewhat here.

Let me add another few thoughs:

1) Maybe your PFR range is too predictable? E.g., in this HH, can you ever have 55, 66 or 65 here?

2) In this HH, are you ever delaying your c-bet to the turn? this is a great board to delay since its quite dry.

3) Are you ever bluffing on the river? Maybe this HH isn't exactly ideal for a river bluff shove (and especially not given effective stacks), but if you're never bluffing on the river as the PFR'r, then you are opening yourself up to exploitation. (Of course, this is only important in games, and with villains, where you are being exploited.)

4) If these guys are only 1 or 2 villains at a table, then avoid them. There's no shame in pot-controlling vulnerable made hands against a villain that is giving you fits. Its called "adjusting".

Bip posted everything you need to know.

Check back more tp flops (preferably Kx/Ax). Raise more turns. Merge more rivers. (Only against opponents you are 100% are competent)

But yes as others have said most of the time even " thinking" opponents suck and are face up and/or terrible. A c/c/lead line is usually pretty strong. Sometimes it is a turned combo draw. Most of the time you should just give it credit as sissy and exploitable as that seems.

What does merging mean? Is it playing your strong made hands and missed bluffs in the same way?

Thanks

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First polarized:
- means you have nuttish hands and complete airball bluffs and nothing in between. This means your opponents bluff catchers all hold the same value - from bottom pair to top pair and means he can call you often and profit if your bluff frequency is too high.

Now merging:
-mixing in some of that middle of your range in the same line and "un-polarizing" yourself. Results in hero getting some thin value when the villain gets comfortable bluff catching with mid and bottom pair / etc... much more difficult to play against for a villain

^does not mean go out and merge everything... against a lot of opponents, we never need to make this adjustment.

Bad hand to bet 20 into. Even if he's spewy, you are probably only getting called by the better end of his range.

Also don't keep trying to adjust to people adjusting to you and use your image to your advantage. KJo doesn't provide a good spot for any of your reasoning.

WTF? When did adjusting to villains stop being the backbone of poker? Also, stove KJo against the limp/call range I provided. Don't see how it's a mistake.

Good points all. A lot of things to think about adding into my game like pot controlling the flop in spots where I can only get 2 streets maximum, and adding some semibluff hands to balance my raising range on later streets.

Results: I fold, villain doesn't show

Thanks.

So it sounds like merging is effectively betting for thin value ourselves when we would have previously only bet monsters or bluffs?

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It has more to do with bet sizing than anything else.

For example:

JJ54K board and 50bb pot.

If someone bets 50bb, it is likely that the person is betting with a polarized range. Merging would be making that same bet with 99.

Thin value would be betting 20bb with 99.

+1