iraise, did you mean to put that post in this thread? Seems like a response to a different hand.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gmenace
I don't think the nut straight (AK) would raise in V's position. I also removed sets from his range because no raise pre. My read is telling me he has a straight draw with a pair, KQ.
Would anyone call or stack off to KQ here? What about check raising on the flop?
I think you have some serious results-oriented thinking going on here. You keep trying to get V's range down to one hand, which tells me that you likely called, he showed KQ and hit to beat you.
You're just throwing way too many hands out of his range. Why KQ, but none of the other pair plus SD hands? Also, just because
you wouldn't play AK or TT that way doesn't mean V wouldn't. You can throw out many of the combos of them, as I did in my long post above, but you can't eliminate them from his range all together.
Check-raising the flop would be bad, as the flop checking through on this wet board would a disaster. So many cards either kill your action or your hand.
As for stacking off vs KQ, obviously if he shows us this hand, we shove. He might fold, which would be great for us as he surrenders a ton of equity. If he calls, we are ahead by a tidge (51.67%) and have a little bit of dead money in the pot. Our shove represents 47.5% of the pot, so we have a positive EV on a shove of $33 even if he calls.
The problem, of course, is that he's not going to show us his hand, and his range isn't just KQ. Shoving would always get called by the parts of his range that have us crushed, sometimes get called by the hands that are flipping with us (which would not be a mistake given the dead money in the pot) and always fold out the hands that beat us.
This hand is great illustration of the importance of position.