Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-21-2016, 10:35 AM   #1
somerook
adept
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 895
2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

2/5 Weekday evening. Quiet table. Lots of small pots, no crazy action.

Villain: is a serious-rec - often in the casino, knows/chats w the regs, pretty ABC, but solid. TAGgy. Villain prob views hero as similar. Effective stacks 500

EP opens limps,
Hero raise to 25 with AQ from Hijack,
Button calls,
Villain completes in BB

Flop ($100): AK8

Villain Checks, EP Checks, Hero bets $65, Button fold, Villain calls $65, EP fold.

Turn ($230): 6

Villain checks pretty quickly, Hero bets $100, Villain thinks for 10 secs and then calls.

River ($430): 5

Villain quickly shoves for about $275.

My thinking was his range is mostly two fold
1. Flopped flush. And he is sandbagging. Rare but obv possible.
2. Pair and a FD. Either an A, K or 8 with a heart.
Based on pure math, it should be a call. What else should I consider?
somerook is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2016, 11:37 AM   #2
Javanewt
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: a farm in the country
Posts: 10,640
Re: 2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

What range do you put him on? He called a raise from BB, which to me is most likely suited connectors, suited A, pp. Seems he'd re-raise with a big pair or big A.

He must know you have an A, at least. Does he think you'll fold AQ or AK (or a set)? Would you?

He seems pretty strong here. I guess he could have KQ w Qh or QJ w Qh? Would he re-raise AQ? Still, does he expect you to fold?

I think he's good here unless I have more info that he will bluff and has good reason to against you.
Javanewt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2016, 11:41 AM   #3
MIB211
veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,011
Re: 2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

Generally, X/c flop, X/c turn, shove river is a very strong line. OTF and OTT they call because they don't want to scare you off, but on river there's one last chance to get money in the pot and they don't want you to check behind.

This is probably a fold. Don't think V is ever betting for value here w worse than AQ. You need to be good about 25% of the time here. If he's calling down w a pair and flush draw, I suspect at worse he has J of hearts. Doubt he's playing Q8o or J8o, so that leaves him with 2 combos of AxQh, 2 of AxJh, and 3 each of KxQh and KxJh. His value range is 6 combos of AK (would he 3-bet pre?) 3 combos of A8s, 2 combos of A6s, 3 combos of 88, and his flush combos, probably about 10. So if he is always turning his missed hearts into a bluff we can call. However, if he has a pair and a flush draw, he has showdown value sinless likely to bluff. I think I fold.
MIB211 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2016, 12:24 PM   #4
Keaton
grinder
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 476
Re: 2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

This is a fold.

You raised pre flop, bet flop on a scary board, bet turn on a scary board. Villain called you every step of the way and then suddenly jams on river. That would be a mighty bold bluff considering you've shown a great deal of strength up to this point on a runout where you could easily have a flush or set.

Villain is "pretty ABC" and "TAGgy". Easy fold.
Keaton is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2016, 01:28 PM   #5
wj94
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 7,714
Re: 2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

I'd probably start by checking the flop. c/c, c/c, open shove is pretty strong and if he's bluffing he should really only have a very few offsuit FD/SD combos. If you called and won I'd be surprised. Not sure why you bet 2/3 pot on flop and then 40% pot on turn.
wj94 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2016, 03:11 PM   #6
sierradave
adept
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 920
Re: 2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

Yeah, looks like a clear fold given table dynamics. He's betting the river to prevent you from checking behind. This isn't a good runout for him to be firing at, and he's shown no tendencies for creative bluffs that force villains off of good-but-vulnerable hands.
sierradave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2016, 03:25 PM   #7
Amanaplan
acanalpanamA
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Getting There
Posts: 4,919
Re: 2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

Pretty routine 1 street hand with the flop being the best street for a value/prot/vis 4 handed.
Amanaplan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2016, 03:54 PM   #8
Minatorr
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 5,227
Re: 2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

Fine. Fold river. Checking back flop and turn is bad
Minatorr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2016, 04:56 PM   #9
somerook
adept
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 895
Re: 2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MIB211 View Post
Generally, X/c flop, X/c turn, shove river is a very strong line. OTF and OTT they call because they don't want to scare you off, but on river there's one last chance to get money in the pot and they don't want you to check behind.

This is probably a fold. Don't think V is ever betting for value here w worse than AQ. You need to be good about 25% of the time here. If he's calling down w a pair and flush draw, I suspect at worse he has J of hearts. Doubt he's playing Q8o or J8o, so that leaves him with 2 combos of AxQh, 2 of AxJh, and 3 each of KxQh and KxJh. His value range is 6 combos of AK (would he 3-bet pre?) 3 combos of A8s, 2 combos of A6s, 3 combos of 88, and his flush combos, probably about 10. So if he is always turning his missed hearts into a bluff we can call. However, if he has a pair and a flush draw, he has showdown value sinless likely to bluff. I think I fold.
This was exactly my thinking. Thanks for the responses - looks like there is consensus in the thread.
somerook is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2016, 04:57 PM   #10
Ragequit99
veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: UK
Posts: 2,575
Re: 2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

Hero has to bet flop 4-way as there will almost always be a flush draw out there.

I think hero could check back on the turn against a known bluffy player but otherwise should bet turn.

I think hero could bet smaller on the flop to get called by weak AX and KX. The trouble with monotone flops is a lot of players get mubsy and overfold them so TPTK isn't getting called by weak pairs as often as normal. You don't need to bet very big because you know exactly what turn cards to fear. Betting 2/3 pot or more really telegraphs your hand and allows V with a flush to x/c x/c and thus put off letting you know you are beat till the last moment. If you bet smaller V may feel he has to raise flop or lead turn to get value/protect his hand and you'll be able to get away for fewer chips.

As played easy fold on river, V looks like he has the flush.
Ragequit99 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2016, 07:28 PM   #11
markdirt
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 2,531
Re: 2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

This is a tough spot. You sized your bets poorly and now we're in a wtf spot. You need to be about 30% to call on the river.

I think we can remove all flopped set and two-pair combos from villain's range. I also think most people would raise with a smaller flush such as Th9h or 9h8h. That leaves two flopped flush combos, QhJh and JhTh. I also think we can remove TP + a heart draw from his range. Most people will either raise the flop or call flop/turn and check the river.

Bluff combos include Kings with a flush draw but I think most players will check/fold in this spot.

This comes down to two things: villain's pre-flop range and you making correct bet sizes next time. I think his most likely holding is Ax5h and that the correct play is to fold.

Next time bet 95 on the flop and bet the turn large enough to get it in on the river. If villain checks the river I'm jamming for value against AJ and AT.
markdirt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-21-2016, 11:30 PM   #12
Terraddiction
newbie
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 26
Re: 2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

No blockers? I find this an easy fold. Amongst things people above have listed.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Terraddiction is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2016, 12:13 AM   #13
6betfold
old hand
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 1,367
Re: 2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

Quote:
Originally Posted by markdirt View Post
This is a tough spot. You sized your bets poorly and now we're in a wtf spot.

Next time bet 95 on the flop and bet the turn large enough to get it in on the river. If villain checks the river I'm jamming for value against AJ and AT.
95 on this flop? Just LOL.

If anything, he needs to bet smaller to get called by worse on each street.

V has to be an absolute calling station donk to justify your betsizing.
6betfold is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2016, 12:14 AM   #14
markdirt
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 2,531
2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

Yeah I'm pretty much betting pot in a 2/5 game when we get value from any pair + a heart, any Ace, and when every other hand is folding any bet on this extremely scary board.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
markdirt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2016, 01:06 AM   #15
6betfold
old hand
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 1,367
Re: 2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

Quote:
Originally Posted by markdirt View Post
Yeah I'm pretty much betting pot in a 2/5 game when we get value from any pair + a heart, any Ace
Might have been true in 2007.
6betfold is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2016, 01:08 AM   #16
markdirt
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 2,531
Re: 2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

Quote:
Originally Posted by 6betfold View Post
Might have been true in 2007.


OP said villain is a rec player. Not a regular who is waiting for the 10/20.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
markdirt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2016, 05:28 AM   #17
Minatorr
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 5,227
Re: 2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

Yeah 95 on this flop is bad
Minatorr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2016, 05:38 AM   #18
WereBeer
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 9,631
Re: 2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

ABC players don't take this line with a hand that doesn't beat top pair.
WereBeer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2016, 06:18 AM   #19
Jarretman
veteran
 
Jarretman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Canadaland
Posts: 2,787
Re: 2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

Quote:
Originally Posted by WereBeer View Post
ABC players don't take this line with a hand that doesn't beat top pair.
Yeah. I'm fine with folding here, even given the great odds.
Jarretman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-22-2016, 06:19 AM   #20
markdirt
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 2,531
Re: 2/5: Is he sandbagging or is it a missed FD?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Minatorr View Post
Yeah 95 on this flop is bad


Why?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
markdirt is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:38 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive