2/5 Weekday evening. Quiet table. Lots of small pots, no crazy action.

Villain: is a serious-rec - often in the casino, knows/chats w the regs, pretty ABC, but solid. TAGgy. Villain prob views hero as similar. Effective stacks 500

EP opens limps,
Hero raise to 25 with AQ from Hijack,
Button calls,
Villain completes in BB

Flop ($100): AK8

Villain Checks, EP Checks, Hero bets $65, Button fold, Villain calls $65, EP fold.

Turn ($230): 6

Villain checks pretty quickly, Hero bets $100, Villain thinks for 10 secs and then calls.

River ($430): 5

Villain quickly shoves for about $275.

My thinking was his range is mostly two fold
1. Flopped flush. And he is sandbagging. Rare but obv possible.
2. Pair and a FD. Either an A, K or 8 with a heart.
Based on pure math, it should be a call. What else should I consider?

What range do you put him on? He called a raise from BB, which to me is most likely suited connectors, suited A, pp. Seems he'd re-raise with a big pair or big A.

He must know you have an A, at least. Does he think you'll fold AQ or AK (or a set)? Would you?

He seems pretty strong here. I guess he could have KQ w Qh or QJ w Qh? Would he re-raise AQ? Still, does he expect you to fold?

I think he's good here unless I have more info that he will bluff and has good reason to against you.

Generally, X/c flop, X/c turn, shove river is a very strong line. OTF and OTT they call because they don't want to scare you off, but on river there's one last chance to get money in the pot and they don't want you to check behind.

This is probably a fold. Don't think V is ever betting for value here w worse than AQ. You need to be good about 25% of the time here. If he's calling down w a pair and flush draw, I suspect at worse he has J of hearts. Doubt he's playing Q8o or J8o, so that leaves him with 2 combos of AxQh, 2 of AxJh, and 3 each of KxQh and KxJh. His value range is 6 combos of AK (would he 3-bet pre?) 3 combos of A8s, 2 combos of A6s, 3 combos of 88, and his flush combos, probably about 10. So if he is always turning his missed hearts into a bluff we can call. However, if he has a pair and a flush draw, he has showdown value sinless likely to bluff. I think I fold.

This is a fold.

You raised pre flop, bet flop on a scary board, bet turn on a scary board. Villain called you every step of the way and then suddenly jams on river. That would be a mighty bold bluff considering you've shown a great deal of strength up to this point on a runout where you could easily have a flush or set.

Villain is "pretty ABC" and "TAGgy". Easy fold.

I'd probably start by checking the flop. c/c, c/c, open shove is pretty strong and if he's bluffing he should really only have a very few offsuit FD/SD combos. If you called and won I'd be surprised. Not sure why you bet 2/3 pot on flop and then 40% pot on turn.

Yeah, looks like a clear fold given table dynamics. He's betting the river to prevent you from checking behind. This isn't a good runout for him to be firing at, and he's shown no tendencies for creative bluffs that force villains off of good-but-vulnerable hands.

Pretty routine 1 street hand with the flop being the best street for a value/prot/vis 4 handed.

Fine. Fold river. Checking back flop and turn is bad

This was exactly my thinking. Thanks for the responses - looks like there is consensus in the thread.

Hero has to bet flop 4-way as there will almost always be a flush draw out there.

I think hero could check back on the turn against a known bluffy player but otherwise should bet turn.

I think hero could bet smaller on the flop to get called by weak AX and KX. The trouble with monotone flops is a lot of players get mubsy and overfold them so TPTK isn't getting called by weak pairs as often as normal. You don't need to bet very big because you know exactly what turn cards to fear. Betting 2/3 pot or more really telegraphs your hand and allows V with a flush to x/c x/c and thus put off letting you know you are beat till the last moment. If you bet smaller V may feel he has to raise flop or lead turn to get value/protect his hand and you'll be able to get away for fewer chips.

As played easy fold on river, V looks like he has the flush.

This is a tough spot. You sized your bets poorly and now we're in a wtf spot. You need to be about 30% to call on the river.

I think we can remove all flopped set and two-pair combos from villain's range. I also think most people would raise with a smaller flush such as Th9h or 9h8h. That leaves two flopped flush combos, QhJh and JhTh. I also think we can remove TP + a heart draw from his range. Most people will either raise the flop or call flop/turn and check the river.

Bluff combos include Kings with a flush draw but I think most players will check/fold in this spot.

This comes down to two things: villain's pre-flop range and you making correct bet sizes next time. I think his most likely holding is Ax5h and that the correct play is to fold.

Next time bet 95 on the flop and bet the turn large enough to get it in on the river. If villain checks the river I'm jamming for value against AJ and AT.

No blockers? I find this an easy fold. Amongst things people above have listed.


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95 on this flop? Just LOL.

If anything, he needs to bet smaller to get called by worse on each street.

V has to be an absolute calling station donk to justify your betsizing.

Yeah I'm pretty much betting pot in a 2/5 game when we get value from any pair + a heart, any Ace, and when every other hand is folding any bet on this extremely scary board.


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Might have been true in 2007.

OP said villain is a rec player. Not a regular who is waiting for the 10/20.


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Yeah 95 on this flop is bad

ABC players don't take this line with a hand that doesn't beat top pair.

Yeah. I'm fine with folding here, even given the great odds.

Why?


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