Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
Lol I don't want to get into semantics but fine..."effective nuts"
He has AA here 90% of the time and QQ the other 10%.
Pre is a fold, flop is a fold, turn is a flat, river is a fold.
And yes the ole' (while chuckling) "haha I can't believe I got away with that one" is a super obvious and reliable post hand tell.
I agree that pre is a trivial fold, but I'm not folding the flop to a weak cbet getting 4.25 to 1 with TPTK+back door FD. No doubt it's a marginal flop call, and I know this guy is an old man, but our read isn't THAT solid yet. I'm still holding out hope that AK/TT is still in villain's range especially given his flop sizing--and yes I know a lot of live players don't know how to size their bets, but whatever, marginal spot, I'm seeing what he does on the turn.
My plan on the turn is pretty simple: UI, I'm check/folding if the old man bets again even if it's another relatively weak bet. At that point I'm just gonna put way more weight into the fact that this guy just 3bet us preflop, bet the flop and bet the turn after 2 people called. Translation: at this point he has AK/TT here close to never.
Now in the actual hand we improved to a nice draw and are getting good odds, so yeah easy call.
On the river, I agree it's a check/fold. Although we are a 6:5 favorite against the old man's range on the river (JJ+), if we shove he's only calling when we're losing, and he's never betting KK if we check. So yeah, check/fold river.