Villain in this hand is a pretty decent player - he lacks theoretical knowledge, but he has a good feeling for the game. He considers me the best player in this game and he wants to battle with me. He's learned a lot from playing many hours with me - he is aggressive preflop, 3betting and 4betting, his sizings are usually on point both pre and post.

That said, in this game he was drunk. It was not the first time. In his case, being drunk means playing much looser preflop, straddling, floating a lot, but not doing anything crazy/spazzing postflop.

I have quite some history with him. In the past few months, there were approximately 5-6 spots where he raised or check-raised me on the river in big pots, and I always paid him off, and he always had the nuts. (I made adjustments since the last time I did that, folding more to aggression in live games in general, especially to river aggression). In fact, I don't remember the last time he showed a bluff when raising on the river, and we play quite often together.

Game is 6-handed, effective stack is ~2k.
Hero is BB with 66

Preflop:
BTN straddles to $10, SB folds, Hero calls, folds, BTN raises to $40, Hero calls

Flop ($80): 864
Hero checks, BTN bets $30, Hero raises to $115, BTN calls

Turn ($310): Q
Hero bets $260, BTN calls

River ($830): J
Hero bets $425, BTN goes all in for $1550

Things of note/"live reads" during the hand - on the turn he SNAP called the $260. On the river, it took him maybe 4 seconds max to shove. When I was in the tank after he shoved, I tried talking to him a bit and was thinking out loud. When I was listing the hands he could have for value (T9, 88, QQ, etc.) he asked, smiling: "Do you have a set?". After I heard that, I dismissed the possibility that he could be shoving with a worse value hand, which crossed my mind at first.

Gross spot but we need hands other than T9/75 to defend in this spot. I think throwing in 88 and 66 is enough defense here given the odds we're getting.

Annoying though. I expect its JJ a lot when we're beat here.

Gross spot. Honestly I believe that this is a fold. I know you're near the top of your range, and you're also getting a decent price on a call (you only need ~29% equity to call), but I just can't see how you're good here even 5% of the time.

Villain is never jamming KK or AA for value here after you've repped so much strength. He's never going to show up with a hand like QJ that floated the flop and took this line. And based off your description, I doubt he's sick enough to turn 99 or TT into a bluff here either. Maybe he could have 97s as a bluff but that seems kind of unlikely too. And even if villain did have 44 (the only value hand we beat), he will flat river a decent portion of the time and not always raise.

Once we factor in the reads too, like the speech and the timing tell, it really looks like villain has T9 here more than anything. So I'm folding.

FWIW, stop talking to your villains when making a decision on a hand. As you found out here, all you are doing is telling them what your hand is.

Once you dismiss he is shoving a worse value hand, all you beat are bluffs. You can't remember if he has ever been bluffing in this situation. Every time you remember this situation, he has the nuts. He's talking to you naturally. Seems like an easy fold.

He shouldn't have 9T I don't think, but 57s, JJ, QQ, 88 & 44 are all possibilities, and maybe 86s. I think I would have c/c'd the river this deep after both a Q and J showed up on the turn and river, but I don't fault at all the line H took. I think once you lead river we probably have to call it down. Actually folding vs. calling is probably about EV neutral. Shrug call? A V being drunk probably pushes this towards a call for me.

Pre is interesting. I don't know much theory behind defending bb vs button straddle but the way I see it we'd like to raise or fold since there are so many players left to act you're inviting being isolated and an EP complete looks pretty face up low to medium pocket pair. If there's some real calling stations to your left and people aren't bombing the limpers I can get behind just completing. Since we are deep (200 straddles) I think we can mix in 66 for a raise.

Why are you talking through your thoughts with regs you want to make money off of? This ain't the ante game at LaTB, revealing coherent thoughts can help these guys improve.

Anyways this is a sick spot. I don't like folding sets, but I just don't see what he could snap call turn with then turn into a bluff. If he's really drunk and his floats have been absurd lately then I call. But if he's just a bit loosened up from normal let it go. If there was a potential for busted flush draw bluff I'd 100% call but hate it.

This board favors the pfr much more than a BB complete/call range. T9 is double gutted on turn but I don't think hero is check raising the gut shot more than a sliver of the time nor villain calling the flop raise more than a bit of the time with it. We only have 88, 66, 44 here. I'd be shocked if hero is complete/calling 75s or 86s or 97s or 64s pre here.

Pfr has 75s, QQ, not 100% JJ but good chance. 88. A sliver of T9. Maaaaybe 44.

Villain risking 1550 to get 1250+1550 so his shove needs to work 55% of the time. Our MDF is 45% (that's how this work right? I forget lol). Given our ultra condensed complete/call range we pretty much only have 88, 66, 44 on the river. If we care about MDF we don't even have to defend all our pocket 66. Now given that he has all the best value here, we don't have the best value, and he is not a maniac, I'm comfortable under defending this spot.

The big problem here is the complete/call pre. Maybe villain soul read hero's range here and float/float/spewed... good for him if he did.

I’ll post the results of this hand when there are more comments since the thread got going.

I agree that pre is interesting. I’m not sure how you are supposed to be playing from the blinds when there’s a button straddle on. I have a friend who’s a good reg, and for example his strategy from the SB when there’s a button straddle is to limp his entire range. I don’t know if that’s sound, but it seems reasonable given that we’re OOP throughout the entire hand, including preflop, in this scenario, and have the whole table left to act behind us.

Depends on table. If the table is a total limp/cold call fest and people can't hand read then sure open complete everything you are going to continue with and reraise your premiums to protect that range from LAGs trying to bomb it pre. If the table is moderately tight I don't like it at all because you'll be putting yourself in these situations very often.

This especially bad as small blind. Yuck.

Why can't villain have T9? That hand fits perfectly.

1. He's aggressive preflop, and he's also drunk and raising a wider range. Being on the BTN and trying to take the initiative, I'd argue he can have all 16 combos of T9.

2. He flopped a gutshot to the nuts and 2 overcards. Being also in position, this is a completely reasonable bet/call.

3. He snap called the turn. This is because he now improved to a double gutter, and he believes that he'll get paid on the river if he binks it. Snap calling also tends to be the sign of either a draw or a marginal hand, since monster hands will usually think for a few seconds before calling.

4. He got there on the river and is now jamming for value. This time, he thinks for a few seconds, which is consistent with a monster hand. He starts talking and asks you what hand you have. The focus of his speech is on your hand and not his, which is also consistent with someone having a strong value hand, as people bluffing tend to be more insecure and more focused on their own hand, plus they tend to speak less.

I agree. In making my river decision, I gave him all T9 combos.

Time for the result. I ended up folding, and he just mucked his hand, no expression on his face. I know, a bit anticlimactic. But, some 30 minutes later, we all went outside for a smoke, and he said to me: “Wanna get tilted? I had QJs. Not a lot of people I win this hand against”. I was in disbelief and told him that he would have to float the flop with just two overs and backdoor draws, and then massively overvalue his hand on the river. He admitted he got carried away on the river, and that he was shoving for value, not expecting me to have a hand this strong.

He could still be lying I guess. But even if he’s not, I think this is a hand where the stars aligned in a way to make T9 a very reasonable hand for him, and my fold is still good, especially given that he absolutely wasn’t making such crazy moves in the past.

Based on the quick turn call and the giddy question when he tanked, I think he has precisely 9T.

I could be wrong obviously.

Even if we add QJs to villain's range, that's only 2 combos. And let's say we assume he can overvalue bottom set too. That's 5 combos we beat in total.

Compare that to 16 combos of T9, 9 combos of higher sets, some 75s, etc.

I still think you made the right fold. Well played.

lol there is no way this guy had QJs, come on, he is confirming to you that he had the nuts.

Sounds like either you told him you had a set or managed to give him all the peices to work it out, in which case that’s the only part of the hand that is really bad. You took a guy you can routinely exploit by overfolding to river raises, and you turned him into a guy that you now have to wonder if he’s exploiting you when he raises the river, because he knows you will fold sets to him.

I don’t think you can give V all 16 combo’s of 9T but then limit it to 2 combo’s of QJs.

Why not?

T9o makes sense to call flop because it has a gutshot. And QJs, whilst extremely loose, makes at least a tiny bit of sense to call flop because it has a double backdoor draw (bdfd and bdsd). But QJo has nothing but a backdoor straight draw, so I think it's safe to say he will never show up with any of his QJo combos.

That gives him 16 combos of T9 vs 2 combos of QJs.

I don’t think this is good advice for a game with a constant group of people, for two reasons.

First, if I never talk about my decision (whereas everybody does constantly), I come across as a douchebag who’s only there to take everybody’s money and not have any fun etc, which can then cause some of them to not want to play with me anymore.

Second, it works two ways. If I show them my cards or tell them what I had once in a while, they will show/tell me. And I can extract much more from the information they give me than they can from what I give them.

He can because that's math. There are only 2 combos of QJs available. I think you're trying to argue that he'd raise QJo as well.

Anyways, I still don't think T9o is a factor in this spot.

I doubt every other player is constantly deconstructing their game honestly at the table. However, sure no need to be a silent robot in that kind of situation but also no need to give away this kind of info. Its possible to talk about poker and say very little of value - I do it myself.

OK, so in this situation you truthfully told him you folded a nutted hand to a river raise and he told you he overplayed an inferior hand...except everyone ITT thinks he was lying.

So who got more value in this information exchange again?

Pre with a button straddle in the BB we can definitely play a strategy of limping all our continues, assuming any sort of aggression preflop.
MDF isn't that simple, some boards favor one range over the other and cause us to adjust our MDF.

Grunch.

If he is a good player, I discount T9 here.

Calling $85 x/r with a gutshot to begin with is not great, and to a four-card straight on the board (kills his action) is definitely not a good call. Also, would he really just bet $30 on the flop if he had a gutshot draw; you typically check back or bet larger with a weak two overs and gutshot draw.

Does JJ call the Turn bet after a big flop x/r + lead? Unlikely.

I can't think of any bluff hands that would play it this way; no turned draws. Unless he's turning a made hand like Q8 or QJ into a bluff - it can't be a bet for value here.

In my opinion, this looks like a shove for value. Value hands here are either 57, QQ, 88, and 44. Would he really rip it here with bottom set? If he has 44, you could have 66, 88 or 57 as played.

If you have never seen him River raise bluff and he's raising for this sizing, I lean towards V having 88+ here.

You took an extremely strong line and V jams river anyway. Chances of you having the best hand here are slim as V would have to be getting pretty out of line to overvalue a worse hand. Your hand looks like a set the way you played it. I also don't understand your sizing - small raise on flop, near-pot on turn, half pot on river?

What hands is V supposed to call the river with after calling the turn? I think this is a spot you are extremely likely to get either shoved on or V folds because your line is so strong and most V's aren't in the business of trying to bluff people off sets on dry boards. Let's say V's turn calling range looks something like this:

AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 44, 79s, 57s, 9Ts, maybe an unlikely AQs/KQs/QJs that had backdoor FD on flop.

Which of these hands are you still beating? Out of those hands, which ones are calling river facing your bet? AA/KK might call but are probably a fold when you c/r flop and barrel turn and river. TT/99 aren't calling river. 44 calls. The hands you are now losing to are going to shove. Therefore, I think river should either be a check or a small bet that might get a crying call from one pair hands or some kind of dumb two pair like Q8s, and from which you can still call a reasonable sized raise (since your small bet may be more likely to induce a raise versus a larger bet where jam is the only real option to raise).